I have a broken heart, and it’s not even Valentine’s Day yet.
I took a short hiatus from DFS this weekend as I went out of town to visit family. After I got home and helped get the baby to bed, I checked twitter and began a little research. Sifting through my feed, I see commentary about a trade in the NBA.
I dig a little deeper and find out Portland is involved. And then I see Denver is involved. My interests are peaking.
Then I see the name Nurkic and that Denver gave up a couple of draft picks. I thought that was an awful lot to give up albeit mostly draft picks. I didn’t think it was enough for a player like Lillard or McCollum,
Baffled, I thought to myself, surely Portland didn’t trade Plumlee….THEY TRADED PLUMLEE?!?!
From a basketball operations standpoint, it probably will benefit both teams, but from a DFS standpoint, Nurkic could eventually become viable this year. BUT, right now it sucks.
If you have been following the Index regularly, you should remember that Mason Plumlee was one of my favorite cash game plays. Only until the past couple of weeks have we seen his price increase. For most of the season Plumlee was $5K-$5.8K on Draftkings, and was one of the most reliable fantasy players you could choose, at least for me.
Now that he is with Denver (and not playing tonight, by the way), it’s clear his role is going to diminish, likely a date with the second unit behind super stud Nikola Jokic.
Thanks Plumdog for the memories, maybe you will be fantasy relevant again soon. As for your Nurkic, I hope you quickly make me forget the name Plumlee.
We are just a few days away from the All-Star Break, so we have a huge 11-game slate tonight and you can expect a full plate of games again on Wednesday, the final full day of action before the break.
So we will have an Index Tuesday and Wednesday and then see you back the following Thursday!
Tonight is no different for picks: Below is one player at each of the five positions that I believe will hit 5x or better using DraftKings pricing and position eligibility.
Also, Monday’s and Tuesday’s are premium content for the Index, but if you wish to see today’s full article and beyond, sign up for our 7-day free trial.
Good luck!
Point Guard
Damian Lillard – Portland Trail Blazers – vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,600
Analysis: As much as I felt sad about Plumlee for DFS, there’s a silver lining – Damian Lillard. No Plumlee, no Evan Turner. That equals an astronomical 40% usage rate. Lillard gets Dennis Schroder defense and a Hawks team that allows 55+ points per game to point guards. Lillard is at home and is going to be asked to shoulder the load the rest of the way and we are getting that kind of usage for one of the better PGs in the NBA at a discounted price…hop on now!
Shooting Guard
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Detroit Pistons – vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $5,200
Analysis: I wanted to put Devin Booker here, but he’s shown some inconsistencies lately and his price for shooting the ball is a little higher than its been when I’ve recommended him before. KCP might be coming out of his funk finally and he can’t raise that floor with other stats like rebounds and steals due to his defensive prowess. In two games against the Bucks this year, KCP has averaged 25 fantasy points. The Bucks are a different team now with Khris Middleton back in limited fashion and no Jabari Parker, and I feel that only enhances KCP’s production for this game as even Reggie Jackson has lost a lot of minutes to Ish Smith. That leaves KCP and the rest of his squad to produce a little more. With Ish and Reggie splitting minutes, KCP’s usage rate goes up about 2% with Ish on the floor.
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward – Utah Jazz – vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $7,700
Analysis: In recent weeks, the LA Clippers have quietly climbed into the top 5 in fantasy points allowed to small forwards. This is an 11-game slate, so know that targeting Utah here is likely the most contrarian play you can make. I don’t see a lot of value at SF, but I am writing this Sunday night, so of course, if something opens up, by all means go for it. But as for Hayward, he’s a stat stuffer and the Jazz should be in a close game with the Clippers now that Blake Griffin is back. This is a low-total and a slow pace, but Hayward is the scoring leader and usage eater on this team at 31.8% when Rodney Hood is out (and he is). Hayward has been on a tear of late and showing a 30-point floor. The Clippers are now allowing 44.1 FPPG to SFs, which is third worst in the NBA.
Power Forward
Paul Millsap – Atlanta Hawks – vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $7,600
Analysis: If the frontcourt wasn’t already bad, now the Blazers don’t have Plumlee (tired of hearing about him yet, I guess it was a man crush, sue me). Anyway, Millsap is one of the top power forwards on the board with the best matchup on the board outside of Memphis at Brooklyn. Millsap is second on the team in usage, but should have no trouble posting up down low, using his size to take high percentage shots and recover rebounds on the other side of the court. Portlant is allowing Brooklyn-esque fantasy points to power forwards, giving up 51 FPPG. Millsap is usually one of the best cash game plays night in and night out. He could have a little more upside at his price in tournaments due to his matchup. We just have the Hawks actually try and keep it close.
Center
Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors – vs. Denver Nuggets – $7,800
Analysis: Center isn’t one of my favorite positions of this slate, but there are some great options. It just so happens we can play Draymond at the 5 in our fantasy lineups, which is perfect. Kenneth Faried is out tonight, freeing up minutes for less defensively-minded players at the 4. We are also a game removed from Green’s point-less (not pointless) triple double and he had a let down. This is where I want to hope back on as the Nuggets have allowed 46.9 points per game to power forwards (Green’s true position of course). Green’s price has risen some, but it’s still too cheap for a guy with triple double upside who stuffs the stats sheets. Facing Denver’s back-up to the back-up power forward here is only more beneficial to Green’s probable production. I expect 38-40 points as a floor.
