Happy Valentine’s Day! The worst “holiday” of the year.
Despite my wife and I getting our marriage certificate on this day, V-Day has little significance for me.
For one, I don’t need a day to force me to appreciate and tell my wife I love her. Secondly, flowers die.
V-Day is a lot like DFS if you think about it.
Any day of the year you can buy a dozen roses from your local grocer or flower shop for around $9.99 – $15. They are beautiful, aromatic and consistently provide some pop to a room.
But this one day comes along and roses, along with many other V-day items – chocolate covered strawberries, cakes, cards, boxes of candy, romantic dinners and wine – all become chalky.
Those chalky items are priced up, and extremely popular, thus an easy fade.. February 15th is the day to jump back in. Bags of candy go on sale, flower prices come back down to earth, and you don’t have to feel obligated to buy a card. You can also go eat a nice dinner without the extra crowd.
So, yes, I am a Valentine’s Grinch, but it doesn’t make sense for me to overpay for things that I can pay down for 363 days of the year (Mother’s Day also falls into this category) in order to show how much I love my wife.
You see? Hallmark holidays are like chalk DFS players, not worth paying up for, but fade worthy.
Tonight we have a 3-game slate, and a ton of questionable tags to take a wait-and-see approach with. Daily Overlay will not have its usual Expert Consensus with such a small amount of games to choose from. It will be back Wednesday, the final large slate before the All Star break.
Below are 5 players, one at each position, that I feel will hit 5x or better tonight using DraftKings pricing and position eligibility.
Before we get to the picks, the following players are questionable or worse for tonight which could very well tilt this slate one way or another: Jimmy Butler (questionable), Dwayne Wade (likely doubtful), Kevin Love (out), Ty Lawson (questionable), Nikola Mirotic (questionable), Iman Shumpert (questionable), and Patrick Patterson (doubtful).
Keep those names in mind as lock gets closer. Hopefully we will know most, if not all, in time.
Ricky Rubio – MInnesota Timberwolves – vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $6,900
Analysis: Zach LaVine is out for the season, leaving Andrew Wiggins and KAT to soak up all the usage. Rubio has a sub-20% usage rate with LaVine off the floor, but he is still averaging over a fantasy point per minute. Rubio isn’t going to fire up a bunch of shots, but with the aforementioned offensive firepower, Rubio can rack up the assists, add a few rebounds and maybe a steal or two. Rubio also gets to face the Cavs, who have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game to point guards at 57.6. But in the last 5 games, the Cavs have allowed a whopping 75.6 FPPG. This is going to be one of the best games to target for stacks and Rubio should be one of the more popular PG plays.
Nick Young – Los Angeles Lakers – vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,300
Analysis: You should know by now to target SGs against the Kings. Swaggy P has been firing up shots left and right of late. We don’t know the status of Ty Lawson, Jimmy Butler or Dwayne Wade as of Monday night, leaving very few choices to select from. Lou Williams has the highest usage rate on the Lakers, and could be a sneaky, low-ownership play, but it comes at a cost. I will take Swaggy P to help me fit some of the top studs on the slate. The Kings are allowing 44 fantasy points per game to SGs this season and 53 FPPG iin his last 5 games.
LeBron James – Cleveland Cavaliers – vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,500
Analysis: I guess we don’t get to see Kevin Love against his former team once again, so it will be the Kyrie and LeBron show. The Timberwolves are one of the better defenses against small forwards, but this is the King we are talking about here. He has a usage rate just under 30 percent, but is averaging 1.41 fantasy points per game, without Kevin Love on the floor and alongside Kyrie. Andrew Wiggins has a lot of appeal here for me, but LeBron is going to be a guy I really want to look at here as he and Kyrie should be the focal point of this offense tonight.
DeMarcus Cousins – Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $12,100
Analysis: Power forward is the weakest position on the entire slate. Julius Randle is inexpensive, but is he reliable? With him, Larry Nance, Jr., Tarik Black, Mozgov and Zubac all playing minutes in the frontcourt, it’s really hard to predict where to go with the Lakers down low. So by default, and I would expect him to have a ton of ownership despite the inflated price tag, we have Boogie against the Lakers who are one of the worst teams against bigs outside of Brooklyn. Boogie has a 60-point floor in this spot and is my No. 1 overall play. I don’t think it’s any secret that the Lakers have no one who can matchup or defend Boogie down low. Good luck LA…
Lucas Nogueira – Toronto Raptors – vs. Chicago Bulls – $3,400
Analysis: Center isn’t really a great spot to play tonight either, but there are a couple of options to look at. I am going wth Mr.. Nogueira against a weak Chicago frontcourt. This recommendation is based solely on crossing my fingers and toes that Patrick Patterson sits. If that happens, you can lock him in for 25 minutes. I am also hoping for Jimmy Butler to sit. With Dwayne Wade likely out today, it will be up to Butler to keep this game close. I would love for Butler to sit because that could make a blowout more imminent. I don’t want to predict a blowout or play Lucas trying to predict a blowout, but no Jimmy Buckets would be icing on the cake should Pat Pat sit, which is why I want to play Lucas heavily for a solid value punt.