After a pair of short slates, we have a nice, giant 12-game slate to kick off the month of February.
Early on in Tuesday’s slates, we had a couple of early injury scares. Norman Powell and James Harden each go down with injuries early in their games, but luckily returned to play as needed.
Unfortunately, if you rostered Harden, the Rockets blew out the Kings. Hopefully you had Ryan Anderson or Eric Gordon in your lineups as a hedge to the Beard.
Oh, and remember how I said Westbrook was the easiest fade on the board Tuesday? (I still can’t get the foot our of my mouth).
Tonight we don’t have a ton of high-priced studs to choose from, and we likely won’t have some of the best young talent in the league to choose from, either.
It’s still a solid array of games to make lineups, with point guard being a very strong position to choose from while shooting guard is kind of a disaster. I like this slate overall and there are plenty of value guys to choose from, and especially some underpriced players that we need to hop on.
Today is Wednesday, so luckily for you, the Index is not premium content today (or Friday)! But we have some other valuable content that is premium such as today’s Expert Consensus and our Weighted Expert Consensus. You can join risk free for 7 days and give us a test run.
With the Value Index, we select one player from each position using DraftKings pricing and position eligibility who will go 5x or better. Now let’s dive into today’s selections.
Point Guard
Mike Conley – Memphis Grizzlies – at Denver Nuggets – $7,300
Analysis: Conley went off in his last outing in Phoenix and his price rose $300. Sometime I like to hop off players after performances like that because it’s difficult to replicate that kind of production consecutively plus ownership in tournaments usually skyrockets. Conley is the exception to the rule due to his pristine matchup against the Nuggets, who allowed the most fantasy points per game to point guards (59.4). Conley has a 28.5% usage rate. If Jokic doesn’t play, I feel like there’s a decent chance of a blowout, but I don’t like to predict or worry about that happening. I like to just play the matchups and move along. Conley has a safe floor even if he doesn’t put up another 50 burger tonight, which is why I like him at his even elevated price. Should Yogi Ferrell play over Deron Williams (questionable tag and the reason why Ferrell isn’t here), then he would clearly be my favorite PG play of the night.
Shooting Guard
Dwayne Wade – Chicago Bulls – vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $7,000
Analysis: Can we trust the Bulls at this point? I am going to trust that Wade and Butler have gotten over some of the issues with the team and are ready to play competitive basketball. Wade has been the guy running a lot of point guard in recent games, but I guess at any time that could change. This pick is under the assumption that Wade continues to play that role, in which case, the Thunder allow gobs of fantasy points to PGs thanks to Westbrook’s lack of defense and ability to turn the ball over. Wade put up nearly 40 in this spot in these two teams previous meetings. I debated on Austin Rivers here at $6,100, but with Griffin back, we are paying for Rivers like Griffin isn’t on the floor, and I can’t pay up for that. More on Griffin later, but yes, Wade is a solid option at a thin position.
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward – Utah Jazz – vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $6,600
Analysis: I thought before I looked at pricing that Carmelo Anthony would be the easiest lock on the board, but then I saw Gordon Hayward’s price. This is definitely a time to hop on board the Hayward train as he faces a Bucks team that has been vulnerable for SFs all season long, currently allowing 46 fantasy points per game to the position. Hayward hasn’t been awful lately, but his price hadn’t been meeting his production. Now his price is down and he has a great matchup at home. SF is actually a really strong position tonight that could get even stronger should Steph Curry sit. I like Hayward to go massively underowned tonight and he’s a solid play in all formats.
Power Forward
Blake Griffin – LA Clippers – at Phoenix Suns – $7.500
Analysis: Throw out the Clippers last game where they were blown out by the Warriors. This is a great rebound matchup for LA as they travel to face the Phoenix Suns. Griffin’s minutes haven’t been the normal allotment we would see if Blake had been healthy, but I think people will see his number of minutes against Golden State and think he isn’t quite there yet. Maybe he’s not, but he’s played very few games so far, but has had some time to rest. Griffin played nearly 30 minutes in his return from injury, so I have no doubt that he at least gets to those minutes tonight against Phoenix. I likely will take Griffin every night he plays until his price comes up and you don’t want to be left in the dust when he gets a run of full minutes. The Suns don’t have anyone in their frontcourt to matchup with Blake,and really PFs in general, having allowed nearly 48 FPPG to the position this season.
Center
Dirk Nowitzki – Dallas Mavericks – vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $5,000
Analysis: The Beast from the East, Swish, the Germanator…those are a few of the nicknames for Dirk (I came up with the first one, so it’s unofficial). He is my favorite basketball player of all time, but at 38 going on 39, he’s never going to be what he once was. However, he’s been pretty productive for the Mavs and for DFS purposes this season, especially when his price is depressed. Today is one of those days. The Mavs have knocked off San Antonio and Cleveland in back-to-back games, and now the Mavs face one of the worst teams in the NBA in the 76ers (and I say that because Embiid is out). Dirk has been playing the 5 for a couple of weeks now, and should Bogut sit (or even not), chances are Dirk sees some run at the position. The 76ers have been one of the worst teams against centers this season, allowing 53.3 points per game. I think it is still almost impossible to guard Dirk even at his current age and when he gets that one-legged fade away going, not even Andre the Giant or Wilt could keep Dirk down. Dirk is only playing into the high 20s for minutes, but he has one of the highest usage rates on the team at 24.3%. I honestly thought I would be auto clicking Brook Lopez (and maybe I will with Dirk’s dual-position eligibility), but Dirk has 30-35 point upside in this matchup.
