Well, are you nice and relaxed after your week off from NBA?
I’ve been chomping at the bit to get back to work. Hockey and golf (with a little NASCAR) wasn’t cutting it for me.
A lot has changed since the All-Star Break began, most notably the Boogie Cousins trade to New Orleans for chump change.
But there were other deals made during the break, including the Lakers’ Lou Williams heading to Houston and the Nets’ trade of Bojan Bogdanovic and Chris McCullough to Washington. Ersan Ilyasova also was traded to the Atlanta Hawks.
While you might be aware of all of those transactions, something you might not be aware of is DraftKings’ rule change on newly-traded players. In the past, players traded after a posted slate would not accrue points, but now if two or more traded players play for their new teams on the same night, they will accrue fantasy points. So for example, tonight we have Boogie playing for New Orleans and Tyreke Evans, Buddy Hield and the rest suiting up for Sacramento. Because their new teams both play tonight, all players are eligible for points.
Playing around with tonight’s slate, you can fit Boogie, Brow and the Beard in a lineup and have room for a bunch of near-to-bare minimum players. The Pelicans should be a dynamic team to watch going forward and would likely be a tough out in the playoffs, no matter their seeding. I can’t wait to tune in and see how Brow and Boogie co-exist. Let’s just hope Brow can stay healthy. I am going to tread lightly with these two tonight until we get a better idea of how the offense flows with these guys. They aren’t priced as teammates, but as high-usage studs on different teams. I likely won’t be playing either, or any Hornets for that matter due to Jrue’s uptick in price based on performance and tough matchup against Patrick Beverly.
Also something to watch is the trade deadline, which ends today at 2 p.m. central. Hopefully we see some more fireworks.
This is a special Thursday edition of the Index, so it will not be premium content. Neither will tomorrow’s Index. Actually, all of our NBA content the rest of this week will be at no cost to you. After this week, you might want to get the best bang for your buck by signing up for our 7-day free trial. Overall, we hope you like what you read and view, and that it helps you in your roster construction and profitability.
As a reminder of how the Index works, I provide you one player at each of the five main positions who I feel will hit 5x their salary or better. We use DraftKings pricing and position eligibility.
Good luck in the second half!
Point Guard
Damian Lillard – Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic – $8,400
Analysis: This game has a 213 O/U with Portland favored by only 2.5 points. This is not the same Orlando Magic without Serge Ibaka and a Terrance Ross addition. It also isn’t the same Trail Blazer team now without Mason Plumlee and Jusuf Nurkic at center. But none of that matters for opposing point guards, who should still shred this team for fantasy points. Whether it’s Elfrid Payton, D.J. Augustin and/or C.J. Watson, Lillard should have no trouble imposing his will offensively. The Magic are allowing 57 fantasy points per game to point guards, and in their lone matchup this season, Lillard put up 48 fantasy points with 34 actual points. With no Aminu and Evan Turner out due to injuries, and no Plumlee, Lillard has a 35.8% usage rate on the season.
Shooting Guard
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,900
Analysis: I have been playing kCP for some time, but lately, he’s been underwhelming. Luckily, he finally seemed to break out of his funk against the Mavs right before the break. With a 7-for-15 outing under his belt and a week off, I think this is where we can jump back on the train, even though the train for KCP is rarely occupied. KCP’s price has come down and he is facing the Hornets, who have allowed 43.5 points per game to shooting guards this season. In three matchups this season, KCP is averaging 27.4 FPPG. Even though this is a 6-game slate, I don’t expect KCP’s ownership in tournaments to be very high.
Small Forward
Tyreke Evans – Sacramento Kings – vs. Denver Nuggets – $4,200
Analysis: Well there’s no Boogie, no Gay, so why not Evans? Evans returns to his stomping grounds in Sacramento and I don’t see why he isn’t rolled out as one of the top scoring options on the team. Yes, he is likely to be on a minutes restriction, but he was being hampered on New Orleans of late due to those restrictions, so he should still see a bump playing time while staying under 30 minutes. Evans is far too cheap for a guy that can stuff the stat sheets, even in 25-29 minutes of work. I don’t think this game will stay close, but for guys on minutes restrictions like Tyreke, I don’t think that matters as much because his minutes are already being suppressed. This might be the only time the rest of the year Tyreke is under $5K, maybe even $6K.
Power Forward
Aaron Gordon – Orlando Magic vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,900
Analysis: If you haven’t figured out who the chalk will be on tonight’s slate, well let me present to you Aaron Gordon. With Serge Ibaka gone, it has been announced that Gordon will play the 4 the rest of the way, leaving Jeff Green, Terrance Ross, and rookie Mario Hezonja manning the small forward position. This change bodes very well for Gordon, who is an athletic freak on both sides of the ball. Portland struggles with PFs, allowing 49.6 fantasy points per game. I think offensive production will still be spread evenly among whoever is at PG, Evan Fournier, Gordon and Vucevic, it’s just that Gordon comes at an underpriced premium. I don’t care that he’s chalk, I am playing him while his price is depressed and upside is high.
Center
Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trail Blazers – vs. Orlando Magic – $4,300
Analysis: In his first game with Portland, Nurkic posted 20 minutes of play and nearly 30 fantasy points. With a week off to get comfortable with his new team and the Blazers struggling a bit for healthy bodies, I like this spot for Nurkic, who has a really high ceiling if he is playing a ton of minutes. Portland will need someone to guard offensively gifted and defensively challenged Nikola Vucevic. Orlando has allowed 50.3 fantasy points per game to centers this season. I don’t see why Nurkic doesn’t see his minutes increase quickly and average into the 30s the rest of the season. Portland traded a solid big for Nurk,so it makes sense to predict they will play him a lot of minutes to see what they have. But even at 20-25 minutes (if this is his starting point), I will take him at just $4,300. It’s another player whom I feel is underpriced tonight, but won’t be very much longer, if at all, after tonight.
