We have a 10-game slate in the Association tonight, with basically every stud player in the league to choose from.
This should be a fun slate, but it makes selecting just 5 picks rather difficult, and again with me writing this night before, any news is possible that could completely tilt the slate.
See Spurs the past two nights, and Brow (will he play tonight? Who knows.).
With that said, thank you for clicking and reading once again. You are being rewarded today with a free edition (Wednesdays and Fridays) and an extra pick (because I forgot to give you the free one Tuesday night).
Speaking of Tuesday night, David Lee saw 21 minutes against Toronto Tuesday night, then the Rapture came and we never saw him again.. Thanks, bro.
But seriously, thank you Jeff Ross, er, I mean Terrence Ross and Jeff Green, you were nailed as value plays on the Index last night.
George Hill? You have fooled me twice, shame on you. I’ll chalk that up to a tough night of shooting and then having to travel to Denver for a back-to-back.
There’s a ton to love on tonight’s slate with some rather lofty totals on the board and the Brooklyn Nets to target (and hey, maybe even in a close game!).
Lastly, the Value Index is a running series here on DailyOverlay where i provide you (the majority of the time) 5 plays at each position that believe will hit 5x their price or better.
I would love to get all 5 right at some point this season, and hopefully we will get there. Tonight though, we have 6 selections, so let’s dive right in.
Goran Dragic – Miami Heat – vs. Brooklyn Nets – $7,300
Analysis: No Josh Richardson, no Justise Winslow, no Tyler Johnson, no LeBr…Well it’s safe to say the Miami Heat have a very tight rotation these days. While they play at a slower pace most nights, they get a pace-up game on the road in Brooklyn. I truly can’t argue anyone from the Heat that you might want to play. The Nets are a goldmine for fantasy production and you should definitely take advantage here as both teams are just bad and we SHOULD see a competitive game until time expires. Dragic has scored at least 30 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games. Dion Waiters has been red hot, but his price has seen a dramatic increase. I expect ownership to flock to him moreso than Dragic, considering the strength of the PG position tonight. Dragic has a 30% usage rate when Tyler Johnson and the other injured guys listed above are out. The Nets allow the most fantasy points to point guards, and it’s not even close at 62.1 points per game. Dragic is really the only healthy point guard this team has, so you do the math.
Eric Gordon – Houston Rockets – vs. Boston Celtics – $5,300
Analysis: Since returning from injury a few weeks ago, Gordon hasn’t been as safe on the production side of things for the Rockets’ second unit. He’s been a wishy-washy, flip flopper his past 7 games, scoring in the teens one game and then going for 30s in the ones following. Of course this pattern doesn’t mean much, but I personally like to target guys the next time out after they struggle in a game. Gordon falls into that category tonight, having shot just 3-for-9 from the field. Now he gets a depleted Celtics team that has seen a spike in fantasy production for SGs with its best on-ball defender, Avery Bradley, sidelined. Gordon wouldn’t normally see Bradley anyway (that would be Harden, who is in a great spot of course), but I like the run Gordon gets off the bench for the up-paced Rockets. With Harden off the floor, Gordon has an insane 35.5% usage rate, according to the Rotogrinders Court IQ tool (which you should be using), not a shameless plug, just a very smart tool to use for free).
Wayne Ellington – Miami Heat – vs. Brooklyn Nets – $3,900
Analysis: Is Tyler Johnson out for Miami? Yes. Is Miami playing the Nets? Yes. Is Ellington playing 30+ minutes with Tyler Johnson out of the lineup? Yes. Is Ellington really cheap? Yes. Is he throwing up double-digit shot attempts? Yes. You saiid he’s playing the Nets, right? YES! Now go out there and play him, he checked all of the boxes.
Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors – vs. Charlotte Hornets – $7,500
Analysis: The frontcourt is loaded with great plays tonight, and we can’t play them all on one lineup.This play really hinges on everything surrounded by Nerlens Noel and Okafor. Noel went nuts with no Embiid and no Okafor, so if Okafor is out again and Noel plays, he’s probably the top value play on the board. With that said, Draymond Green is a solid play tonight on the road against a Charlotte front court that lacks the size and athleticism needed to make things difficult for Draymond. Green had been priced up and now sees his salary go right back where it should be. He’s struggled in his last two outings, but should return to the 35+ fantasy point range. I like to use DvP when sifting through research and rostering players, but you can almost throw that out the window when the Warriors are involved considering the plethora of options at this team’s disposal. The Warriors also play at a fast pace and Draymond is going to see the minutes each night.
Brook Lopez – Brooklyn Nets – vs. Miami Heat- $6,300
Analysis: Center is where I really struggled to narrow down my plays as there are a ton that I really like. Also Brow is now only Center eligible on DraftKings, give me a break. Anyway, Lopez is by far my favorite of the bunch tonight. He’s coming off a poor performance against the Spurs, he’s at home, his price is down, his usage rate is through the roof and people are going to be off of him because of his last performance. His matchup looks tough, but Lopez stays on the outside a lot instead of down low, upping his 3-point scoring chances while reducing his chances for rebounds. At any rate, Lopez has consistently been hitting value and lately exceeding it. This is just a great spot at home in what should be a competitive game.
Enes Kanter – Oklahoma City Thunder – vs. New Orleans Hornets
Analysis: This is my bonus pick, and it shames me to say that I had to ditch Mason Plumlee, whose price is over $6K and makes it hard to pay up for him when I have Lopez priced near him and Kanter, who has been seeing a boatload of run on the second unit. Kanter sees another quality matchup against the Hornets, who allow 50.9 points per game to centers (Steven Adams also very viable here). This game should have one of the highest totals of the slate and be competitive as the Hornets generally play better at home. Kanter has seen at least 28 minutes in 6 of his last 7 games, and is averaging more than 30 fantasy points per game, which is easily exceeding value.