Tonight we have one of the rare small slates in the NBA. With just three games, Daily Overlay will not have an Expert Consensus. However, we will bump our usual Tuesday coverage to Thursday, so mark that on your DFS calendars (yes, I know those don’t really exist).
Small slates aren’t easy, in my opinion, you ride or die with ownership. Fade the chalk and they go off? You are left in the dust. Get the guy at low ownership that puts up a 30 or 40 burger, and you could be taking down a large-field tournament.
Tonight is interesting, and I am not sure I have seen anyone in NBA DFS at this price, but James Harden is $13,300. That is an insane price, but he might be THE tilt of tonight’s slate. Can you make a solid team with him in your lineup? If you fade and he goes astronomical, does it matter?
That’s more than 1/5th of your salary for one player. While I typically try to look at things from a 5x or more point of view, sometimes raw points matter. Harden could put up 70 and you could still be in great shape if you fade him.
I’ll be interested to see how Harden makes or breaks tonight’s slate. Obviously, if you fade and he puts of a dud, you are way ahead of the field.
So for the Value Index, we look at things from a 5x standpoint, meaning I recommend players that I feel should hit 5x or better using DraftKings pricing and position eligibility.
And away we go…
Point Guard
Patrick Beverly – Houston Rockets – vs. Orlando Magic – $5,200
Analysis: We have lots of point guards to choose from tonight, so I expect ownership to be spread out as usual at this position. I don’t see any real value below Beverly’s price point tonight (unless we get some news before lock) and Beverly has been a consistent member of the 30-minute club. He’s a great defender who doesn’t put offense first. However, he still manages to show a floor of about 20 fantasy points each night. But tonight he gets the wonderful world of Elfrid Payton defense,and in this spot earlier in the season, Bev nearly put up a 40-spot. The Magic rank 6th in fantasy points allowed to point guards at 56.2 FPPG and have allowed 58 FPPG in their past 10 games. Beverly won’t see the ownership you might think he would because he isn’t much of a shooter, but I like him to pay off his salary here.
Shooting Guard
Evan Fournier – Orlando Magic – vs. Houston Rockets – $5,600
Analysis: I think it’s pretty clear that this game will be the popular one to target. I love the Hornets’ matchup against the Nets, but with Brooklyn being on the road and obviously not very good, this game could easily be a blowout, so it worries me a bit. On the other side of the ball at shooting guard, I like Fournier going up against a lot of James Harden lack-of-defense. Beverly should be able to contain Elfrid, funneling more shot opportunities and success to Fournier and other members of his team, of which we will get to. This is a pace up game for the Magic, and Fournier has come back from injury playing above 30 minutes per game. He hasn’t found his stroke yet, but against the Rockets, who are third worst in FPPG allowed to SGs, this is a prime spot for Fournier to flourish. The Rockets allow 44 FPPG to this position and Fournier is second on the team in usage rate at 25%. He has a soft price tag and put 25 DK fantasy points in this matchup previously this season, a solid floor at $5,600.
Small Forward
Harrison Barnes – Dallas Mavericks – vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $6,400
Analysis: We just saw this game a few days ago in Portland, and the riding the coattails of the streaking Yogi Ferrell, the Mavs came away with a victory. Now the Mavs are coming off a loss to Denver on the road and return home for a back-to-back. Without knowing the status of Deron Williams at this moment (late Monday night), I would like to think the Mavs could continue to rest him and likely rest Dirk. If either of these or both scenarios happen, then Harrison Barnes is an easy lock against Portland. Barnes could move to the 4 and Dorian-Finney Smith would move to the 3. But that’s a big IF right now. But if Deron returns and Dirk plays, I still like Barnes a lot. Mostly because no one will play him if Deron and Dirk play as he doesn’t have much of a ceiling at his price. I say that’s OK because I will take the 30-35 points and feel good about it on a small slate. Anything else is a huge bonus. Portland is a top-10 team in points allowed to SF, so the matchup also benefits Barnes. Should he play the PF position at all, that’s an even better spot as the Blazers are 3rd in FPPG allowed to that position.
Power Forward
Serge Ibaka – Orlando Magic – vs. Houston Rockets – $6,400
Analysis: After three straight 40-point fantasy outings, it was no surprise to see Serge put up a dud in his last time out against Atlanta, one of the better teams vs. power forwards. Now is the time to jump back on as the Magic were blown out by the Hawks and get a pace up game to try and right the ship. Prior to the blowout, Ibaka was back up into the 30-minute range, Houston does not have a strong or sizeable front court to defend the rim and collect those stray rebounds with consistency. We are talking about Ryan Anderson, a perimeter stretch four, trying to guard a bulky, meaty post player. I like Ibaka to garner extra rebound opportunities with all the shots the Rockets fire up and perhaps an uptick in blocks with Harden and others trying to attack the rim. Coming off a dud, love Ibaka to get right.
Center
Mason Plumlee – Portland Trail Blazers – vs. Dallas Mavericks – $5,900
Analysis: We don’t know the status of Cody Zeller or the official availability of Nene as of Monday night, should either or both of these players sit, then we get some much needed value open up. But I will revert to my boy, Mason Plumlee. After seeing his pricing finally meet his production, we have seen Plumlee score 26.75, 23.75 and 23 fantasy points in his past three games. Usually, i would be fine with that floor because his price was around the $5K range, but tonight it’s still up there a bit. However, this is a great spot for Plumlee to get back into the 30-point fantasy range. Regardless of who plays at center, Plumlee can do just about everything, and then some, to fill up the box score. The Mavs are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, but on such a short slate, we can’t be picky. If Dirk plays and Bogut sits, then Plumlee gets an awesome matchup against the Wunderkind, who has never been a great defender. Plumdog has averaged 31 minutes and 30 fantasy points in three games against the Mavs this season
