Now that our football coverage is complete, we can dive all-in on the rest of the basketball season. For myself, I will provide you with my own personal set of picks for every weekday slate except Thursdays.
If you read the NFL version of the Value Index, you know I got to a point where I was producing a lot of picks. The volatility of said choice was apparent, and the results dipped as the season progressed.
It will be much different for our NBA version as it’s a completely different animal in DFS. If you are new to NBA DFS and are reading this, finding the players that reach value is the best way to be successful in cash games and finding guys that exceed value is key to recording high scores in tournaments.
DraftKings has some dynamic pricing night in and night out, so it’s sometimes easy to fade a guy in tournaments on a slate if he has been priced up due to recent success. That price also may see an increase and reach that player’s fantasy points’ ceiling. At any rate, what I hope to accomplish is finding guys I think will hit value 5x or greater at each of the five main positions – point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward and center.
Five picks and that’s it for this version of the Index. Also, this will be premium content, but for this week, we will let you test it out and see how you like it! So let’s get after it.
We have a small five-game slate for tonight, no exactly a hotbed for variation and value. Sometimes it is difficult to make picks a night before when there are quite a few injury concerns and with the Spurs on the slate.
But with that, here we go.
Point Guard
Cory Joseph – Toronto Raptors – vs. Brooklyn Nets – $3,400
Analysis: It’s 5 games and if you are playing tournaments, you are going to need to find a way to find low ownership and differentiate your lineups. I would play Joseph in cash games if I needed to because he gets minutes and produces enough points to pay off most nights. But tonight I like him for tournaments due to his matchup. Brooklyn allows 63 fantasy points per game to point guards this season, that’s no secret. Brooklyn has typically played games closer at home, so the blowout factor kind of hurts Joseph a bit, but regardless, he has a great matchup against the Nets second unit. We already like players against the Nets’ first unit, so why shouldn’t we like guys against the second unit? Joseph has a 23.6% usage rate when DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are off the floor, according to the Rotogrinders CourtIQ tool, which is such a helpful tool for NBA DFS. Anyway, I think this is a safe play with low ownership due to matchup, pace and blowout potential.
Shooting Guard
Dion Waiters – Miami Heat – vs. Houston Rockets – $5,300
Analysis: Waiters is facing an up-tempo team that has struggled to contain SGs thanks to sub-par defense from the Beard. The Heat have a tight rotation due to the lack of healthy bodies. Even with Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside on their team, Waiter sees a solid usage rate of 26.9%. Dragic and Whiteside can’t do it all, and the Heat’s record clearly shows that. Since his return to a full minutes allotment, Waiters has fired 17 shots in each game while making just 9 shots. Waiters has made value thanks to high assist totals and hopefully that trend will continue for Waiters, who is typically known for being just a shooter rather than scoring fantasy points through other peripherals. The Rockets give up 44.2 points per game to shooting guards. With this game having a high total and Waiters surely to see positive shot regression, this could be a monster night for a guy trying to round back into form.
Small Forward
DeMarre Carroll – Toronto Raptors – vs. Brooklyn Nets – $5,200
Analysis: Carroll is someone I have definitely had a difficult time pegging this year, but that was all when he was on a 20-minute limit restriction. Should Patrick Patterson return, perhaps that limits Carroll some. But the matchup is far too juicy to ignore at his price. Carroll has fired 10 or more shots in the last 4 games, including 32 from beyond the arc. He’s also recorded rebounds of 11 and 8 in two of those games. With the Nets playing up pace, firing up all kinds of shots, the rebound potential is there for Carroll. Should this game stay close for most of the contest and Carroll get the full amount of minutes as he has seen in the past 6 games, Carroll should be able to easily reach 5x.
Power Forward
Julius Randle – Los Angeles Lakers – vs. Denver Nuggets – $7,200
Analysis: Randle is almost a perfect bounceback candidate today against the Denver Nuggets, who are coming into LA on a back-to-back. While Lakers’ production is usually tough to predict, we don’t have to worry about them blowing anyone out. Randle has played the minutes, but has scored just 15.5 and 18 DK fantasy points the past two outings. Randle has huge upside with his ability to snag double-digit rebounds and elevated assist totals. DeAngelo Russell has the highest usage rate on the team, and will garner a bunch of ownership due to his awesome matchup against the Denver backcourt, but i like Randle to get back up to Randle speed in what should be a close game.
Center
Brook Lopez – Brooklyn Nets – vs. Toronto Raptors – $6.300
Analysis: People don’t like rostering Brook Lopez this year, but I actually do. I don’t know if I am any kind of whisperer, but his insanely high usage rate on this team is enough for me to consider him in all formats almost every time he’s on a slate. Tonight is a great opportunity to buy in on Lopez as the Nets are at home, where they normally play up to their opponent and Lopez’s athleticism away from the rim should be trouble for Jonas Valancunias to guard once again. We saw what Lopez against Toronto last time out and now they face off at home.. Lopez won’t get the rebounds we want to see from the center position, but his usage and shot attempts aren’t numbers we usually see from the position either, especially from the 3-point line. Don’t be afraid of BroLo.
