This will be our first full week for the NBA Value Index, and I am excited to be writing this for the remainder for our NBA coverage.
The Index will run every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, but will now be premium content for half of the week. On days that we provide the NBA Expert Consensus for free, the Index will be premium content, and vice versa.
So here’s how that schedule plays out:
Mondays and Tuesdays – Premium
Wednesdays and Fridays – Free
That means the Consensus is free on Mondays and Tuesdays while premium content the remainder of the week. Even though the Index will be premium, I always let you have am appetizer, but you will have to subscribe to get the full meal. I’ll try to remember to rotate the positions for the freebies.
If you missed out on the Index last week, just note that I provide 5 of my favorite plays at each of the 5 basketball positions using DraftKings scoring and positions. Some days I might like James Harden as a SG because I like a PG better, but no other shooting guard. Same goes for any position. I am providing you with plays that I feel will best hit 5x in regards to salary. If I recommend someone, just know that value could open up at any time and thus change my thinking.
Tonight we have a 9-game slate to kick off the week, and after some lackluster NFL games on Sunday, I am ready for a little drama tonight in the Association. NFL DFS is complete for the 2016 season and we will see the Falcons and Patriots come to Houston to face off in Super Bowl 51. I personally think New England wins easily.
Now on to the NBA…
Point Guard
George Hill – Utah Jazz – vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $6.600
Analysis: Hill is second on the team in usage rate this season and has an outstanding matchup against Russell Westbrook, in what should be a competitive game. I love rostering Hill now that he is a member of the Jazz and when healthy. He was a low-volume scorer in Indy, but now has a 26.1% usage rate this season. He is coming off a huge game against his former team, but has another pace-up game against the Thunder, who are 8th in the league in fantasy points allowed to point guards. As long as this stays close, Hill should easily get 5x tonight.
Shooting Guard
Austin Rivers – LA Clippers – vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,900
Analysis: For me, Austin Rivers isn’t someone I ever want to set out and roster. Maybe he will be an overall solid basketball player in the NBA, but he’s a mediocre player in my eyes. With that said, he is in a pristine matchup tonight against the Hawks. Rivers is SG eligible, but mostly plays point guard and you should know by now that you should target point guards against the Hawks, who allow the 4th-most fantasy points to the opposition. No Chris Paul and likely no Blake Griffin means we get to see be one of the top 3 players on his team in usage rate. His price is creeping up there, and you might wonder if the Hawks could blow them out in the end, but I think this is a safe play considering the Clippers are short-handed on bodies. I do like James Harden tonight by the way, so don’t think I am not playing him, I just like the value Rivers has as a shooting guard and pairing him with another point guard.
Small Forward
Trevor Ariza – Houston Rockets – vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $5,300
Analysis: So James Harden isn’t on my official list, and we aren’t sure of the status of Ryan Anderson, though he is “supposed” to play tonight. Ariza still stands out as a solid value option on the board (and Dekker even more at SF should Ryno sit of course) considering the Bucks are second worst in the league in DFS points allowed to small forwards. Ariza can pack a stat sheet and is coming off a poor performance where he shot 1-for-8 against Memphis, including 1-for-6 from beyond the arc. I think this is a get-right spot for Ariza ,who has scored 18 fantasy points in his past two outings, a score at his price that wouldn’t kill you in cash games and maybe not even tournaments.
Power Forward
David Lee – San Antonio Spurs – vs. Brooklyn Nets – $5,500
Analysis: No Pau Gasol, and Lee is up against the Nets. That’s about all we need to discuss here. BUT Lee has earned solid minutes the past two games since Gasol went out. Lee was once a stud rebounder when given the minutes, but would flounder on defense. The Nets play no defense and play up pace. The Nets give up tons of points to every position and I could see this spot for the Spurs to rest some key guys, which would only make Lee that much more enticing.
Center
Myles Turner – Indianapolis Pacers – vs. New York Knicks – $6,600
Analysis: I haven’t even thought about playing Myles Turner in awhile. He’s a player that was good to me early on before his salary increase. Turner has a plum matchup tonight against the Knicks, who allow 51.9 fantasy points per game, good for fourth worst overall. He’s getting minutes into the 30s and has a ton of upside in this matchup due to his ability to score down low and snag rebounds. He’s not a cash game play because he gets in too much foul trouble, but he could easily put up 40-50 points should the Knicks put up a ton of shots. The ball is in your course, Mr. Turner.
