Welcome into a special edition of the Daily Overlay Value Index. We are providing wall-to-wall coverage for tonight’s NBA slate due to taking off Tuesday when we had just 3 games.
Be sure to check out the Industry Expert Consensus with our updated ownership projections and the Weighted Expert Consensus. Matt and Brad do a great job of helping put all of that together, so give them some love!
Tonight we have just 5 games on the slate with Russell Westbrook and James Harden as our studs of the night. The Cavs, meanwhile, are resting the Big 3, opening up even more value to cram Westy and the Beard into one lineup (how I am playing tonight).
So for this 5-gamer, I am going to stick with the same format, but with a slight twist. Instead of recommending anyone I believe will go at least 5x, I will focus on only guys you are able to play TOGETHER in a lineup WITH Westbrook AND Harden in a DraftKings lineup. What that means is I am not going to be recommending Nikola Vucevic and Nicolas Batum because you can’t fit them in a lineup with the two studs. I will still use DK pricing and position eligibility as usual.
Good luck tonight! Should be a fun slate!
Point Guard
Kay Felder – Cleveland Cavaliers – vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,000
Analysis: The Cavs are SUPPOSED to sit the Big 3, but if Kyrie plays, then duh, this pick is moot. There’s a ton of $3K options on the board should the Cavs sit the studs. With the likelihood of this happening, the line has the Cavs at -9 underdogs. With only 8 players in the rotation, the blowout factor shouldn’t matter here. Felder is up against Westbrook defense and OKC is allowing 54.7 fantasy points per game. Take your pick at the cheap Cavs guys, but I like Felder here should Kyrie sit.
Shooting Guard
Jeremy Lamb – Charlotte Hornets – vs. Houston Rockets – $3,400
Analysis: I can’t argue Kyle Korver, but I don’t like to chase, even in this situation with the Cavs. He went 9-for-10 from 3-point range last night and he’s only $3,900. I will play him, but just expect his ownership to be huge due to recency bias. So to pivot, I am going with Jeremy Lamb against Houston in the highest-projected O/U on the slate. There’s no Ramon Sessions, and Lamb should see 20-25 minutes off the bench with the second unit. He has high usage off the bench and can stuff the stat sheets even in limited run. Lamb should go overlooked with all of the open value and minutes with the Cavs. At only $3,400, I like Lamb to meet value against a team that allows 43.9 fantasy points per game to shooting guards.
Small Forward
Maurice Harkless – Portland Trail Blazers – vs. Boston Celtics – $4,000
Analysis: Evan Turner had been playing the starting role for Portland for the past few weeks, but now he’s likely out for the season, giving Harkless his starting gig back. Again, you can play Korver or $100 less at SF. But, with Harkless likely seeing a boost in minutes and production against Boston, who is tied for second on this slate in FPPG allowed to SFs, I like him to easily meet 5x at likely low ownership. This game has a close spread and I actually like for it to stay close and possibly shootout. It’s a 5-game slate but with only 4 games you really want to choose players from, so you will have to have some exposure to Boston/Portland in your lineups. Here’s a way.
Power Forward
Ryan Anderson – Houston Rockets – vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,800
Analysis: I haven’t played Ryan Anderson all season, so i personally want to see if this home/away splits theory is true. Looking at his season stats, you can see that he is averaging 7 more fantasy points per game on the road, and is shooting 17 percent better from 3-point range on the road. Why is this happening? (Throws hands in the air). But let’s ride or die with it tonight. He’s only $4,800 and has 40-point upside. The Hornets struggle to guard PFs, allowing 46.5 FPPG to the position. Anderson hasn’t been shooting well, but I like his potential to be lower owned. I will say, I wouldn’t play Anderson in cash games tonight. I just want to see if we strike the iron hot.
Center
Jahlil Okafor – Philadelphia 76ers – vs. Orlando Magic – $4,400
Analysis: This is a risky play in itself, but one I see paying off. Why is it risky? Because at any moment, Jahlil Okafor can be traded. He’s one of the hotter chips on the market, but for now, with no Embiid, I am going to take my chances and pull the trigger. You can fit Mason Plumlee and Tristan Thompson at this position with Harden and Westbrook, so there are some other options. Okafor has taken double-digit shot attempts in his past four games while seeing about 27 minutes per game. It’s not perfect, but he has a great matchup against Nikola Vucevic, the other defenseless wonder. Orlando has allowed 50+ fantasy points per game to centers, and at $4,400, I feel Okafor has 30-point upside. Vucevic also needs to be considered though as Philly has been getting smoked by Centers without Embiid on the floor, it’s just that Vuc’s price is really high for today’s slate.
