I almost bet many articles you read this week regarding the NFL opening week will have this phrase – “FOOTBALL IS BACK!”
We all can’t help feel like a kid in a candy store or a kid on Christmas morning when the NFL season rolls around.
Not only do our favorite teams get a clean slate en route to a potential Super Bowl berth.
But the excitement also comes from all of us knowing that fantasy football, in whatever form you prefer – season long, best ball or daily – also is back in our lives.
So, here we are, Week 1 of the NFL season. It has begun.
Before we get to the premise and meat of this article, I just want to say that DailyOverlay is going all out this football season to bring you myriad of content, for both CFB and NFL football.
Not only will we churn out a few picks articles for college football, we will publish a DFS consensus at least for every Saturday slate. Should there be a large Thursday slate with big pots of money at the end of the road, we will have picks and a consensus there, too. On top of that, if you are into sports betting, we will have you covered there too.
As for the NFL, the same thing goes, except we will have more feature articles for you to dive into. Our good friend Brad (aka RotoPilot) will be bringing you his NFL Hot Sheet, chock full of information and provides you will all the smart plays based on trends, opportunity and pricing.
We will have a DFS Expert Consensus, a Sports Betting Consensus and Write-up, and there’s me.
I will be publishing two articles this year, separating overall picks into more strategy and correlation-based picks, not just pricing.
The first article in the batter’s box will be this one, the Cash Game Index. Here’s how this article will work – Each week I will provide you with cash game plays for your lineups based on opportunity, expected outcomes, pricing, high-floor expectations and matchups.
I will use these plays to create my own cash game lineup on DraftKings. I will share my results and discuss my thought process over my official selections. Hopefully, I can show some consistency with my process and make a profit.
Obviously, if some late-breaking news comes out before lock, that might influence me into some plays not in my articles earlier in the week, but that’s just part of the game.
My last endeavor for the week will be bringing the Stacks article into the NFL. A lot like baseball, stacking and correlations to stacking are the keys to jump-starting DFS lineups. Ownership percentages factor into these decisions, too.
The Stacks format will feature 3-4 game stacks that I like to either cover the spread or go over. Generally, we are going to see 2-3 games shoot out, we want us to be on the right side of those affairs.
Anyway, that’s a lot of talk for opening week, so let’s get rolling the Cash Game Index for Week 1. Good luck this week and I hope something from my strategy and recommendations pays off for you, too.
QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady – New England – $7,200
Analysis: Will Brady still be Brady at age 41? We can probably bank on it at least to start the season. Faces a defense that was 9th overall in passing yards allowed per game and surrendered 30 passing TDs, tied for 2nd-most allowed. In last year’s meeting, Brady threw for 378 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers – $6,900
Analysis: Facing what should be a stout Cowboys defense with a shotty offensive line blocking for him. The OL should be better than last year, a season where Newton average 20 fantasy points per game. Newton also has more weapons on his disposal with TE Greg Olsen’s return from injury, rookie D.J. Moore and a more experience Christian McCaffrey at running back. Didn’t score less than 11 fantasy points in a game in 2017, safe floor.
Drew Brees – New Orleans – $6,800
Analysis: I want to believe the Saints will smash at home this week against Tampa, the league’s worst pass defense in yards allowed in 2017. Because of a torrid dual-threat running game, the veteran Brees didn’t have his typical Brees season for fantasy purposes. But Mark Ingram isn’t there in Week 1 and the Saints may have to throw more than they normally would prep for if they had both RBs in this game. Brees threw for more than 500 yards combined and 3 TDs in both meetings with TB last season.
Case Keenum – Denver – $5,100
Analysis: Gunslinger quarterback getting to start with his new team at home, a sporting venue with elevation that visiting teams are not conditioned to early in the season. Keenum also has a capable running back and three very strong receivers at his disposal. Keenum is a cheap, big-armed quarterback against a Seattle team that will have a mediocre defense at best.
RUNNING BACKS
David Johnson – Arizona -$8,800
Analysis: Bellcow running back getting short-yardage targets from a short-yardage aficionado in QB Sam Bradford. Coming off an injury that isn’t knee, foot, leg or ankle related, so health and conditioning shouldn’t be in question. Cardinals offense has few weapons, should give large workload to Johnson to have chance of winning game against Washington.
Alvin Kamara – New Orleans – $8,500
Analysis: Locked in as RB1 with suspension of Mark Ingram and release of multiple RBs at cut-down day. In a heavily-favored game against a weak opponent (Tampa). Saw 5-7 targets per game with Mark Ingram in offense last season, now there is no Ingram. Kamara scored 30 and 32 fantasy points in two meetings against the Bucs last season.
Melvin Gordon – Los Angeles – $6,800
Analysis: Another bellcow RB facing a porous defense. Should see heavy workload and multiple targets out of the backfield against a defense that got worse in the offseason. Gordon has high touchdown equity with Kansas City having a weak pass defense and the Chargers being able to move the ball up and down the field.
Christian McCaffrey – Carolina – $6,400
Analysis: Explosive running back that should see near-bellcow workload. CMC could see nearly 10 targets a game with offensive line woes and Cam having to dump passes quickly to avoid pressure. I am not convinced Dallas defense is as good as advertised. CMC also should see most of the goalline work should that opportunity arise.
*Bonus – Rex Burkhead – New England – $4,200
Analysis: Only a cash game play if he draws the start and Michel is inactive. Was a virtual cash lock until slight tear in knee occurred in practice. Sony Michel could also see reps if healthy. This play is contingent on having all the details about who is active ironed out.
*Bonus – James Conner – Pittsburgh – $4,500
Analysis: Becomes the value play at RB if Le”Veon Bell doesn’t show up for practice before Sunday. Conner would see a huge workload against the Browns should Bell be unavailable. Conner obviously is unplayable if Le’Veon returns.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Brown – Pittsburgh – $8,600
Analysis: Lines against Cleveland since 2014, starting with 2014 – 5-116-1, 7-118-0, 10-139-2, 13-187-1, 8-76, 10-96-1 and 11-182-0.
Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona – $6,600
Analysis: No. 1 receiver, plays well at advanced age early on in seasons, biggest red zone threat on team in the passing game and has a quarterback that loves throwing lots of short passes to slot receivers.
Chris Hogan – New England – $6,100
Analysis: No Julian Edelman, no true No. 2 wide receiver, murky backfield situation and only Gronk to feed. Hogan is de facto No. 1 receiver with big upside. Scored 2 TDs in meeting last year.
Jarvis Landry – Cleveland – $5,500
Analysis: Don’t know about Josh Gordon’s role in Week 1, been a target monster each season in Miami and continued into the Browns’ preseason. Steelers should have a lead most of this game, forcing Cleveland to throw a ton to play catch-up.
Emmanuel Sanders – Denver – $5,000
Analysis: Adam Thielen was Keenum’s slot receiver last year. This year Keenum will have Manny Sanders. High projected target share with a very capable and proven quarterback.
Kenny Stills – Miami – $4,700
Analysis: Even if DeVante Parker suits up, Stills should have expanded role in Miami offense. He’s the team’s deep threat and is one of the best down-field receivers in the league.
John Ross – Cincinnati – $3,900
Analysis: Earned the No. 2 receiver in this offense with stellar and explosive plays in the preseason. Claim to fame came on a bomb against Buffalo this season where he juked and made them look silly trying to tackle him. Won’t be this cheap the rest of the year.
Keelan Cole – Jacksonville – $3,800
Analysis: Should absorb some target share with absence of Marquise Lee. Cole performed excellent in that role last year, but Jags have been pass catchers at TE and WR3. Still has chance at increased opportunities, even if running game does not struggle.
TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski – New England – $6,900
Analysis: This is all about target shares and usage. Gronk had 2 TDs in this game last season. With no Edelman and depleted RB core, Gronk should have ample opportunity to make catches in what should be a high-scoring game.
Jack Doyle – Indianapolis – $3,600
Analysis: No competent WR2 on the Colts makes Doyle, an Andrew Luck favorite, a WR2 at the tight end position against the Bengals. Doyle also sees lots of targets in the red zone and the Colts will have a band-aid of running backs so will need to throw, throw, throw to be successful.
Ricky Seals-Jones – Arizona – $3,000
Analysis: Outside of the Giants and Browns, there wasn’t another team worse against tight ends last year than the Redskins. RSJ should be the No. 3 targeted player in this offense outside of DJ and Fitz.
DEFENSES
Baltimore Ravens – $3,800
Analysis: Is Nathan Peterman starting at quarterback on the road in Baltimore? Yes? Ravens the top defense this week.
Denver Broncos – $3,300
Analysis: Teams coming to Denver in the first couple of weeks of the season tend to struggle on both sides of the ball due to lack of conditioning and Colorado altitude. Out of 16 Denver home games in the first four weeks since 2010, only one team has scored more than 30 points.
San Diego Chargers – $2,800
Analysis: Chargers have a stout secondary this season and basically face a rookie quarterback with little NFL experience. Chargers should get on top early and the Chiefs should be throwing and throwing, presenting more opportunities for turnovers.
Arizona Cardinals – $2,500
Analysis: Punt defense at home against an offense that doesn’t have a bellcow, pass-catching running back, facing an offense that went from Kirk Cousins to the most conservative down-the-field thrower in Alex Smith.
Cleveland Browns – $2,000
Analysis: Facing Ben Roethlisberger at home, meaning Big Ben is on the road, where his splits are likely known by most of the DFS community. Browns have much-improved defense that could be enhanced should Le’Veon Bell sit out the first week.
