Welcome back to another edition of The Stack. Monday was a very not-so-hot day for this guy, but hey, it happens and that’s baseball.
We are down to the next-to-last Stack of the 2018 baseball season, so let’s stop the chatter, get back to the grind and hopefully win some money!
SP1 – Tyler Glasnow – Tampa Bay Rays – $9,500
SP2 – Nick Pivetta – Philadelphia Phillies – $8,200
NEW YORK YANKEES
- Gary Sanchez
- Gleyber Torres
- Miguel Andujar
- Andrew McCutchen
- Aaron Hicks
Analysis: I know the Yankees are playing in Oakland, but for some reason, this team is vastly underpriced. The A’s have been good and are vying for the playoffs, but Mike Fiers is not good, and no one will be able to convince me of that. Maybe I am stubborn, but the Yankees on the road, with that power, at their prices is just too good to avoid. Paying up at pitcher is very much in play AND stacking the Yankees on the road. Oakland’s ballpark isn’t exactly hitter friendly, but hey, 23 runs have been scored in the stadium before. Now for these five guys against Fiers, who is typically a reverse-splits pitcher. All but one have a small-to-large, but successful, track records against Fiers. Hicks is 3-for-5 with 2 bombs, Andujar is 3-for-5 with 3 doubles, McCutchen is 6-for-19 with 4 home runs and Sanchez is 2-for-6 with a double and 2 walks. Torres is 0-for-3 against Fiers. Against RH pitching, all but one have wOBAs over .330 versus RH pitching. All but one have ISOs of .190 or better against RH pitching. The lone bat under .330 wOBA is Sanchez, but he’s been hurt a lot of the year, and if he gets it going, his positive regression numbers should spike. Currently, Sanchez owns a .274 wOBA and .168 average against righties, but his .172 BABIP and 35% hard hit rate suggest he’s been very, very unlucky. The lone bat under .190 ISO is McCutchen at .147. However, he’s blasting balls with a 44% hard hit rate. Fiers has been very lucky this season against both sides of the plate with a .287 BABIP and 4.37 xFIP against right-handed bats while owning a .260 BABIP and 4.54 xFIP to lefties. He’s also allowing 1.79 HR/9 against lefties and a 1.46 HR/9 against right-handed bats.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
- Matt Davidson
- Jose Rondon
- Daniel Palka
Analysis: Ahh, the scrappy White Sox. I would love this stack more if I could play Avisail Garcia, but he’s likely unavailable for this slate. Rondon is the one guy that might not make the stack. Tim Anderson is dealing with an ankle injury, so it’s possible we see Rondon, and I hope we do. He has made himself quite acquainted with RH pitching this season, albeit in a small sample. Against RH pitching, Rondon has a .445 wOBA, .343 ISO and 50% hard contact rate. As for Davidson and Palka, They hover around the .320 range in wOBA and are well above .200 ISOs each against righties. Tonight, they are at home against Jordan Zimmermann, who the White Sox have pounded for 20 ER in 4 starts this season, including 5 ER just a few days ago. They have Zimmermann’s number. Zimm, against lefties this season, owns a .334 wOBA and 1.76 HR/9 rate while owning a .326 wOBA and 1.79 HR/9 rate against righties. If somehow this lineup and the Yankees’ lineup deviates too far from the pieces I have here, just find a way to play Trout against Bartolo Colon and Arenado and Story in Coors.