What a difference a week makes. Last week we had a ton of tight Vegas lines. This week there are five games with a favorite of at least nine points. We need to make sure to take this into account when thinking about game flow as it could limit or accentuate certain players in those matchups. This week I also have a strong feeling on a gut call that could payoff in large GPP tournaments if it comes through like I think it can.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | K | Vegas |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 49 | 49 | 66 | 55 | 52 | 52 | 48 | 51 | 45.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 58 | 43 | 54 | 54 | 50 | 46 | 50 | 51 | -3 |
The Eagles are coming off a convincing win over the Cardinals last week and will travel on a short week to Carolina to face the Panthers. The Eagles offense has been above average this season but so has the Panthers’ defense ranking 10th DVOA against the pass and 13th against the run. The Eagles passing game led by Carson Wentz should be able to have most of their success utilizing their WR corp with Alshon Jeffrey, in particular, stepping up against a Panthers’ secondary that ranks 25th DVOA against opposing #1 WRs. Zach Ertz may be limited in yardage this week but still has a chance for a score. The Eagles’ ground game will be split between LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement but will struggle to gain their usual yardage but have a strong chance for a rushing score.
Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense appear to be getting it going after a sluggish start to the season. Newton should have success through the air against an Eagles’ pass defense that has allowed 299 yards per game (29th) and 1.6 touchdown passes (18th). Both Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess will have some success on the outside piling up yardage with one of them finding the end zone. Christian McCaffrey should be able to grab 5-6 catches for decent yardage and a chance for a red zone score through the air. Jonathan Stewart and the Panthers’ running game will struggle to move the ball against an Eagles’ run defense that has allowed just over 47 yards per game to opposing RBs (2nd) and the Panthers still are without a rushing score by a RB.
Hot Picks:
- Alshon Jeffrey (**)
- Cam Newton (**)
- Devin Funchess (*)
- Kelvin Benjamin (*)
