Now we begin the second half of the NFL season….
It’s three weeks until Thanksgiving and we have 8 Fridays until Christmas.
My daughter will be three during the week of Thanksgiving.
Time.
Slow.
Down.
Football season makes the second half of the year go by so quick (and if you’ve been with us awhile, you have heard me say that before).
While there are plenty of ups and downs in DFS, we have to enjoy the NFL season while we have it because we will long for it once its’ gone.
So let’s enjoy this week and hopefully this week I can help you bring in a nice chunk of change before the holidays hit.
Good luck and hit me up on Twitter (@hotdogdaily_DFS) if you want!
QUARTERBACKS
DeShaun Watson – Houston Texans – $6,300
Analysis: No Will Fuller, but yes Demaryius Thomas means we don’t know what the hell to expect from DeShaun Watson. We know that Watson’s splits with and without Fuller are alarming. We don’t know the status of Keke Coutee yet and the Texans just traded for Thomas from the Broncos, their next opponent in Denver. But here’s the thing, no one plays Watson this year despite a 64% completion percentage, 2,100 yards passing, a 15:7 TD:INT ratio and 230 yards rushing with a score. That equates to an average of 22.4 DK points per game.
Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns – $5,600
Analysis: Oh boy. No Hue Jackson. No Todd Haley. This is so Browns. I don’t think anyone will want to play Baker Mayfield this week even though they are facing the 6th-worst fantasy defense to QBs in the Kansas City Chiefs. Perhaps the removal of two dunces will be an achievement unlocked type situation for Mayfield and this offense, that refused to throw to David Njoku in last week’s loss (more on him in the Cash Game Index later this week).
Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions – $5,600
Analysis: He has 6 straight games with at least 2 TDs this season, he loses Golden Tate and the Lions are facing the Vikings for the first time this season. No one is going to play Stafford this week, but I think he’s in a potential track meet this week. The Vikings will be able to move the ball at will against this porous Lions’ defense that let Russell Wilson toss 4 touchdown passes. He’s averaging about 7 more fantasy points per game on the road than at home, and hopefully gets Theo Riddick back to have him, Kerryon Johnson, Marvin Jones and Kenny “Babytron” Golladay all available in the passing game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,500
Analysis: Oh boy, Fitzmagic almost worked his magic in last week’s benching of Jameis Winston vs. Cincy. Now he’s getting the start, but his price is ridiculous for a guy who also could be benched. That’s why he’s in the GPP Index against the Panthers (plus it’s the Panthers on the road). You can’t trust FitzMagic to be consistent and blow up opposing defenses. He did get benched FOR Winston after having other-worldly games.
RUNNING BACKS
Melvin Gordon – Los Angeles Chargers – $8,200
Analysis: Health and matchup will drive down MG3’s ownership this week against the Seahawks, who have quietly put together a few wins and shown their defense can still be legit. This is a volume-based play where I feel Gordon will see a larger market share of touches due to the game playing close until the end. This is speculation and feel, but the Seahawks are solid against RBs, holding them to 70 yards and .57 TDs per game and allowing just under 6 catches per game. But the Chargers have a potent offense and Gordon should be over his hamstring issues coming off the bye.
Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $7,300
Analysis: The O/U for this game is at 60 as of this writing. SIXTY! That’s really unheard of in the NFL. I love lots of plays from this games and our first entrant is Kamara, who is seeing enough usage and has so much touchdown equity that he’s a great tournament play but not trustworthy in cash. He scored two TDs last week and the Rams aren’t exactly stout against the run, allowing 90 yards rushing and nearly 1 rushing TD per game plus allowing 6.13 catches to opposing RBs. The Rams haven’t faced a 1-2 punch like the Saints’ RBs either.
Chris Thompson – Washington Redskins – $5,400
Analysis: Is Thompson playing the Falcons? Yes. Then you play him in tournaments and hope the Redskins get behind early as the Falcons are allowing a rushing TD per game, 8.86 catches and 68 yards per game, and are 3rd in fantasy points allowed per game to running backs.
Kenyan Drake – Miami Dolphins – $5,300
Analysis: I’ve liked Drake in season-long, at the start of the season and at times during this resurgence in usage. But I haven’t played him. Now that I am more willing to play him this week, will we see Week 3-5 usage or will we see what we’ve seen the past 4 games – 54 touches (rushes and catches), 375 yards and 4 TDs. He gets the Jets at home as a favorite with a 45 O/U.
Lamar Miller – Houston Texans – $5,200
Analysis: I love Watson and Hopkins in tournaments, and now I love Lamar Miller, who will now ultimately fail this week because I want to play him based on his recent production (aka recency bias is real). Denver has limited fantasy points a bit, but are getting gashed on the ground to the tune of 125 yards rushing and 0.88 TDs per game.
Isaiah Crowell – New York Jets – $4,200
Analysis: Miami is fourth in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season, surrendering 125 yards rushing and almost a rushing touchdown per game. Crowell doesn’t get much work in the passing game, but should see the carries needed to put up some big gains. I personally can’t believe I like him and am recommending him because I think he’s awful, but here we are.
Elijah McGuire – New York Jets – $3,000
Analysis: Milly Maker winning play right here as the McGuire returns from the IR to be a backup or change-of-pace back to Isaiah Crowell. Cannon has been a below average backup, but the Jets are a below average offense. I just like his price and his potential to succeed expectations with low ownership, especially in a game they could be trailing as McGuire is the team’s pass-catching back along with Cannon.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,000
Analysis: Coming in with a groin injury and on the road against Cleveland’s stout pass defense? Give me lots of Tyreek this week, who scores almost 18 more DK points per game than at home (30.5 on the road to be exact). He’s always had those weird home/road splits and I suspect that with all of that great plays at the top, Hill will go underowned because of his injury.
Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers – $7,300
Analysis: Liking Melvin and Keenan Allen probably won’t turn out well, but I feel like Allen has to turn in a complete game one of these days soon. I don’t know if I will actually go here against a Seahawks team allowing 35 fantasy points per game to receivers, including one TD per contest, too.
Robert Woods – Los Angeles Rams – $7,000
Analysis: I am going to zig where people will zag in cash this week. I think Woods is the popular one, but he will be a GPP play only for me. I am still not convinced he is this other worldly talent and Cooper Kupp should be returning to action. Woods’ price is not safe enough for the player nor for cash, but in a game with a 60 total, he’s most certainly in play for tournaments. The Saints are allowing the most DK fantasy points per game to receivers this season, allowing 16 receptions for 235 yards and nearly 2 touchdowns per game.
DeVante Parker – Miami Dolphins – $4,600
Analysis: Kenny Stills could be back and Parker wasn’t traded at the deadline. This makes for a tournament-only play for me. But after putting up 6-134-0 against the Texans, I don’t see how the Dolphins can keep him off the field. He’s always had tons of talent, upside and athleticism, but he’s barely been able to see the field this season. The Dolphins take on the Jets, who are 6th in fantasy points allowed to receivers, giving up 16 catches for 191 yards per game.
Demaryius Thomas – Houston Texans $4,500
Analysis: REVENGE GAME (if you can accrue fantasy points for him on a site somewhere)
D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers – $4,300
Analysis: I can only relegate Moore in GPPs until we know if Torrey Smith is going to play this week against the Bucs. Moore’s role will increase should Smith sit out again and I wouldn’t be surprised then if I ended up on him in cash against the Bucs, who allow the second most fantasy points per game to the position.
David Moore – Seattle Seahawks – $3,900
Analysis: I read that Moore might see lots of Darius Slay this past week, and I got off of him. But he’s still my boy from my high school alma mater and he keeps catching touchdowns. The Seahawks released Brandon Marshall, so that only means better things for the second-year receiver. Hopefully he doesn’t draw much Casey Hayward, but I don’t think I really care at this point. He’s an athletic freak who Russell Wilson clearly loves near the red zone and in jump-ball situations.
TIGHT ENDS
Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins – $4,800
Analysis: I really like a lot of the higher priced tight ends for cash. I feel like the position is pretty deep this week. Reed is someone who hasn’t got it going yet this season. The Falcons are middle of the pack against tight ends, but the Redskins really don’t have any pass catchers for Alex Smith to trust. Reed has had 9 and 12 targets in two of the past 3 weeks, none of that usage or target share has turned into touchdowns. Maybe he gets going in a sneaky shootout this week?
Greg Olsen – Carolina Panthers – $4,700
Analysis: I can’t stomach Greg Olsen in cash, so I relegate him to GPPs this week. Carolina takes on Tampa, who is 4th in fantasy points allowed to TEs this season. Olsen has had 16 targets in this past 3 games and I like this game to shoot out, too, and you can probably tell considering all of the Panthers I have recommended and will recommend in Thursday’s Cash Index, too.
