The 2018 NFL Season about ready to kickoff which means the beginning of another season of my NFL Hot Sheet. This year in addition to the Hot Sheet matrix, analysis and DFS picks, I will be adding my Top Bets for the week against the “Vegas” spread as part of a new Betting Consensus that we will be bringing you at DailyOverlay for the NFL season.
As a refresher for the Hot Sheet, I will analyze each game and provide a write-up of how I expect each game to play out based on game script using the ratings I have compiled for each position. The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks (Note that the first few weeks will still rely on last season’s stats):
- Vegas line and total
- Team pace (plays)
- Overall play distribution
- Red Zone and Inside 10 play distribution
- Yards per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
- TD per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
- DVOA ratings from FootballOutsiders
- Sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns
All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in bold are “hot” indicating a good matchup. I will list some “Hot Picks” for each game rated from one to three stars and at the bottom of the article give my Top DFS Plays for the week.
Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.
Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | K | Vegas |
| Atlanta Falcons | 45 | 41 | 39 | 29 | 60 | 43 | 37 | 42 | 45 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 58 | 53 | 65 | 65 | 45 | 58 | 50 | 58 | -2 |
The Falcons travel to Philadelphia to face the Super Bowl champs to kick off the season on Thursday night. Both teams played at a slower pace than most teams which could limit possession and total plays in the game. The Falcons passing game, which will once again be led by QB Matt Ryan, will have a tough test on the road against a stingy Eagles pass defense which allowed the 4th lowest Yards per Attempt last season. Look for the RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to be active in the passing game as the Eagles were most vulnerable to pass-catching RBs in the red zone, while the Falcons performed well in this area. Julio Jones will get his share of looks from Ryan but secondary options like Mohammad Sanu actually has a better individual matchup. The running game will have a hard time getting it going on the road against the Eagles rush defense that ranked in the Top 3 in most statistical categories including the #2 DVOA ranking against the run.
The Eagles will begin the season like they finished last year’s Super Bowl run with Nick Foles at QB. Foles and the passing game should have a fair amount of success moving the ball through the air. The targets will be spread out with TE Zach Ertz being the most involved against a middle of the road Falcons defense defending the position. The Falcons also had DVOA rankings of 25th against both #1 and #2 WRs last season which will open up some look for Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace with Alshon Jeffrey ruled out. Corey Clement will also be involved in the passing game out of the backfield as the Falcons ranked 28th in receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs last season. The Eagles running game might have a little tougher time as the Falcons ranked 6th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in TDs allowed to opposing RBs last year. Foles could get some hidden fantasy production on the ground.
Hot Picks:
- Mohammad Sanu (*)
- Mike Wallace (*)
- Zach Ertz (**)
