Last week didn’t go well for my DFS picks or Best Bets but everyone is allowed to have bad week once and a while, right?!? Of course, the great thing about DFS is one bad week can be quickly forgotten as we move on to the next slate of games to analyze and play. Week 15 of the NFL season is upon us which is the beginning of a couple Saturday games sneaking their way into the mix. See my game-by-game analysis, Hot Picks and Top Plays for the week no matter which slates you play.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | Vegas |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 63 | 70 | 42 | 34 | 73 | 67 | 45 | 53.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 54 | 56 | 78 | 50 | 58 | 52 | 55 | -3.5 |
Chargers
Injuries Notes
- Melvin Gordon will be a game time decision but seems unlikely to play, opening up snaps for Justin Jackson
- Austin Ekeler is out, opening up snaps for Justin Jackson
Running Game (4th): Justin Jackson will likely see a bulk of the workload unless Melvin Gordon can somehow suit up. Whoever totes the rock is set up for a good game against the Chiefs 32nd DVOA ranked run defense that has allowed 5.12 YPC (32nd) to RBs this season.
Passing Game (3rd): Philip Rivers may need to pass often to keep up with the Chiefs high-flying offense on Thursday night. He gets a slightly better than league average matchup as the Chiefs rank 15th DVOA against the pass while allowing 263 yards (22nd) and 2.5 TD passes (29th) per game over the last five weeks.
Top Targets: The best individual matchups for the Chargers receiving options are for Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams. While TE Antonio Gates could make an impact in the red zone.
TD Predictions:
- Justin Jackson (or Melvin Gordon) rushing
- Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates
- Philip Rivers to Mike Williams
Chiefs
Injuries Notes
- Sammy Watkins is out, Kelvin Benjamin could get his first snaps with the team and Chris Conley will also fill in
- Spencer Ware is doubtful to play, look for a committee between Damien Williams and Charcandrick West
- Tyreek Hill is questionable but is expected to play
Running Game (20th): The Chiefs backfield has gotten ugly in a hurry with the Kareem Hunt situation and now Spencer Ware unlikely to play. Damien Williams and Charcandrick West will try to fill the role against a solid rush defense that ranks 16th DVOA while allowing just 4.00 YPC (10th) to RBs over the last five weeks. Although they have given up 1.2 TDs (29th) on the ground over the last five weeks.
Passing Game (12th): Patrick Mahomes will take on his second straight tough test against the Chargers pass defense that ranks 9th DVOA and has given up just 201 passing yards (4th) and 0.8 TD passes (2nd) over the last five weeks.
Top Targets: Look for Williams and West to be busy coming out of the backfield as the Chargers rank 19th DVOA against pass-catching backs. The WRs and Travis Kelce could have their hands full on the outside and down the middle against a good pass defense.
TD Predictions:
- Charcandrick West rushing
- Patrick Mahomes to Damien Williams
- Patrick Mahomes to Chris Conley
Hot Picks:
- Justin Jackson (**) – If Gordon is out
- Philip Rivers (*)
- Antonio Gates (*)
- Charcandrick West (*)
