NFL Value Index – Week 2

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Week 1 was interesting, but it was kind to Greg and it was kind to this guy also. Both of us have the weekly Weighted Consensus and other NFL content such as the Hot Sheet, to thank for our successes, especially on FantasyDraft.

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Now that housekeeping is complete, let’s move on to Week 2, shall we?

Now that we don’t have two Monday night games or a postponement, we have a little more research to sift through to perfect our roster construction. We also have a major injury to consider and how that situation will play out now that David Johnson is on the shelf for 2-3 months. Also, will OBJ play this week? Are the rookie RBs legit? And where have all the good QBs gone?

We have two premier games in this slate and it’s obvious that ownership is going to flock to them, and rightfully so. First we have angry Tom Brady traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints. It also is the return of Brandin Cooks to the Superdome since being traded in the offseason. The other game with a big total is the Green Bay Packers who travel to Hotlanta to take on the Falcons. Both games have high O/U projections and both are indoors with prolific offenses. Seriously, it seems to easy. But what may seem easy, simple and obvious isn’t always what it seems.

Before we get to my favorite value plays for this week, here are my rankings by position, my favorite stacks and a list of who will likely be chalky based on chit chat around the industry. Remember, the rankings are not about price, but strictly about matchup and usage. My official picks will factor in everything for DFS.

Quarterbacks

1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Matt Ryan
4. Drew Brees
5. Derek Carr

Running Backs

1. Le’Veon Bell
2. Melvin Gordon
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. Kareem Hunt

Wide Receivers

1. Julio Jones
2. Brandin Cooks
3. Antonio Brown
4. Amari Cooper
5. Jordy Nelson

Tight End

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Jimmy Graham
3. Zach Ertz
4. Jordan Reed
5. Travis Kelce

D/ST

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Oakland Raiders
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Buccaneers

Top Stacks

1. Tom Brady/Brandin Cooks/Rob Gronkowski
2. Matt Ryan/Julio Jones
3. Aaron Rodgers/Jordy Nelson/Ty Montgomery/Randall Cobb
4. Derek Carr/Marshawn Lynch/Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree
5. Philip Rivers/Melvin Gordon/Keenan Allen
6. Ben Roethlisberger/Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown
7. Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin/Jimmy Graham
8. Jamies Winston/Jacquizz Rodgers/Mike Evans

Chalk

Quarterbacks – Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Derek Carr

Running backs – Kareem Hunt, Mike Gillislee, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, Tarik Cohen, Kerwynn Williams

Wide Receivers – Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Michael Thomas

Tight Ends – Gronk, Jimmy Graham, Jesse James, Austin Hooper, Charles Clay

Defense/Special Teams – Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Raves, Oakland Raiders

One more thing I want to add each week if there are enough to list – Top Narratives. Playing the Houston post-Hurricane Harvey narrative, the Eddie Lacy revenge narrative and Adrian Peterson revenge narrative were complete duds, but I think narratives matter. For Week 2, here are some storylines to consider…

1. Angry Tom Brady/Patriots – After being embarrassed by the Chiefs on opening night, Brady and the Pats take on the Saints in the Superdome. Brady versus a bad defense is never a good combination for the opponent.
2. Brandin Cooks Revenge – First game back in the Superdome and against his former team since being traded.
3. Tampa Bay Hurricane Irma – First game since Hurricane Irma wreaked havoc on Florida.
4. Los Angeles Chargers – First home game since moving to Los Angeles.
5. Mike Glennon Revenge – Psyche. This narrative can kiss my ass.

Now, don’t forget to follow my DailyOverlay/sports-only Twitter account @HotdogDailyDFS! On to Week 2’s picks…

Oh and one more thing, I don’t look into any yards allowed, points allowed, yards gained, points scored per game stats until around week 4 when we have a few weeks under our belts. My narratives will be based on usage, price, Vegas odds and so on.

Philip Rivers – QB – San Diego Charges – $5,800

Analysis: Brady, Ryan, Carr, Brees, Winston, and A-Aron, I like them all, but it’s Rivers that comes in at a very, very cheap discount. Paying up for RB will be tougher this week due to the injury to DJ and Shady McCoy’s matchup against Carolina, but there are some great mid-tier and value RB options that could allow you to jam in the wide receivers up top (Julio, Brown, Cooks). Rivers and the Chargers place their first home game since moving to Los Angeles, so there’s that narrative going as well. This will be the Dolphins first game action of the season, and if Week 1 was any point of reference, Miami might come out a bit rusty in their first NFL game. As for Rivers, he has a great defense helping him out and a slew of weaponry to target from Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams to having a workhorse back Melvin Gordon helping him move the chains.

Ty Montgomery – RB – Green Bay Packers – $5,800

Analysis: Ty was one of my favorite plays last week and he received somewhere around 90 percent of snaps against the Seattle defense. T-Mont averaged a paltry average of yards per carry, but this was the Seahawks. Now Montgomery gets to play on turf and against a defense that gave up 8 catches to Tarik Cohen last week. This game against the Falcons has one of the highest totals on the slate and is the Sunday Night game. Hey nail, meet hammer.

Rob Gronkowski – TE – New England Patriots – $6,900

Analysis: Tom Brady is once against the highest-priced quarterback and his price went up. Now, I certainly think Brady is your cash game quarterback, but he is certainly a tournament fade because I don’t like to pay up for QBs most weeks. For that reason, I will almost be all in on Gronk this week and have a ton of shares of Brandin Cooks (revenge narrative). Gronk is criminally underpriced for the matchup against the Saints, who were one of the worst defenses in all of football last year. The Saints’ offense usually plays great with Drew Brees at home, so this is where I think Gronk has a chance to shine after expectedly busting last week against the Chiefs and Eric Berry (before the injury). I don’t like a lot of tight ends this week and Gronk is most certainly worth paying up for because he is just too cheap.