Last week in the NFL there were a lot of points scored which resulted in huge fantasy days from numerous players and, in turn, high DFS scores. After going through the matchups this week, I have a feeling we are going to see another high scoring week. Almost every matchup produced, at least, a couple increased opportunities for us to look at and exploit. There were also a few different games that feel like they could be shootouts based on the significance of the increased opportunities identified, from obvious possibilities such as the Saints/Bucs game to less obvious ones like the 49ers/Browns game. As always read through the matchups and take a look at the data to find your own plays that you think could blow up this week.
So let’s get to the numbers and analysis…
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Minnesota Vikings | 61 | 35 | 57.4% | 214 | 1.0 | 26 | 42.6% | 113 | 0.8 | 18.2 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 66 | 36 | 54.5% | 278 | 2.0 | 30 | 45.5% | 136 | 0.9 | 25.8 |
Expect the Vikings to go to the air more often than normal this week as they try to keep up with the Cardinals. The passing game will have an increase in passing yards and their likelihood for one touchdown pass. With fewer carries than normal, the running game will see a decrease in yardage and a decreased chance for a rushing score. The Vikings run the ball over 63% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
The Cardinals project to run the ball slightly more often than usual as they work with a lead. The passing game will still be effective, but will have a decrease in both yardage and their opportunity for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will produce more rushing yards than normal with their typical opportunity for one rushing touchdown. The Cardinals pass over 55% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings passing game (+)
- David Johnson rushing yards (+)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 64 | 38 | 59.4% | 283 | 1.6 | 26 | 40.6% | 132 | 0.7 | 21.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 65 | 34 | 52.3% | 262 | 1.9 | 31 | 47.7% | 126 | 0.9 | 25.1 |
Look for the Steelers to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will see a slight decrease in passing yards with their typical opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should produce their typical yardage with a decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Steelers pass about 53% of the time in the red zone.
The Bengals will execute their typical run heavy game plan this week. The passing game will perform in line to their typical level of passing yards and opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will see a very slight uptick in yardage with a slightly decreased chance for any more than one rushing touchdown. The Bengals run the ball 59% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Gut Call: While the numbers don’t show any increased opportunities, this game has shootout potential so I like both the Bengals and Steelers passing games (+)
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Buffalo Bills | 68 | 35 | 51.5% | 231 | 1.9 | 33 | 48.5% | 149 | 0.8 | 23.8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 67 | 39 | 58.2% | 259 | 1.7 | 28 | 41.8% | 123 | 0.8 | 22.0 |
The Bills should see a significant increase in their number of plays run this week while they execute their typical run heavy play distribution. The passing game will produce their typical passing yards, but will have an increased likelihood for two touchdown passes. The running game will see a slight uptick in rushing yards, but will have a decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Bills run the ball over 60% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Look for the Eagles to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game will have a slight increase in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will perform similarly to their typical level of production for yardage and touchdown opportunity. The Eagles have an even 50/50 split between run and pass plays in the red zone this season.
Increased Opportunities:
- Tyrod Taylor chance for 2nd TD pass (++)
- Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing game (Darren Sproles or Ryan Matthews(if active)) (+)
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Atlanta Falcons | 68 | 43 | 63.2% | 256 | 1.4 | 25 | 36.8% | 99 | 0.8 | 19.8 |
| Carolina Panthers | 66 | 31 | 47.0% | 224 | 1.6 | 35 | 53.0% | 145 | 1.4 | 25.8 |
The Falcons project to go to the air slightly more often than usual this week. Despite the increase in pass attempts, the passing game will have a decrease in passing yards with their typical opportunity for at least one touchdown pass. The running game will have a slight decrease in rushing yardage and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Falcons run the ball slightly more than 50% of the time in the red zone.
The Panthers project to run a couple fewer plays than normal with their typical run heavy play distribution. The passing game will have a slight decrease in passing yardage and a decreased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game should produce their typical rushing yardage, but will have a significantly increased opportunity for multiple rushing touchdowns. The Panthers run the ball over 60% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Panthers chance for multiple rushing TDs (Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton) (++)
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| San Francisco 49ers | 63 | 36 | 57.1% | 247 | 1.6 | 27 | 42.9% | 112 | 0.7 | 20.1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 67 | 44 | 65.7% | 317 | 1.7 | 23 | 34.3% | 90 | 0.6 | 20.5 |
The 49ers project to run a few more plays than normal with their typical play distribution. The passing game should have a significant increase in both passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should have a slight increase in rushing yardage and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The 49ers pass 59% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
The Browns, with Johnny Manziel at quarterback this week, should execute a few more plays than normal with their typical play distribution. The passing game should see an increase in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will also see a slight increase in rushing yards and their chance for a rushing touchdown. The Browns pass 66% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers passing game (Anquan Boldin) (+++)
- Shaun Draughn (+)
- Johnny Manziel and the Browns passing game (Travis Benjamin (if active)) (++)
- Isaiah Crowell (+)
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Washington Redskins | 63 | 38 | 60.3% | 251 | 1.7 | 25 | 39.7% | 107 | 0.4 | 20.1 |
| Chicago Bears | 65 | 34 | 52.3% | 241 | 1.6 | 31 | 47.7% | 136 | 0.8 | 22.6 |
Look for the Redskins to pass slightly more often than usual this week. The passing game should produce their typical passing yardage, but will have an increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards with their typical low opportunity for a rushing score. The Redskins pass over 55% of the time in the red zone.
The Bears project to run the ball slightly more often than normal. The passing game will perform at their typical level for passing yards with an increased opportunity for two touchdown passes. The ground attack will see a significant increase in rushing yardage with their typical opportunity for one rushing score. The Bears pass over 54% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Kirk Cousins chance for 2nd TD pass (++)
- Jay Cutler chance for 2nd TD pass (++)
- Matt Forte rushing yardage (++)
Detroit Lions @ St. Louis Rams
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Detroit Lions | 67 | 44 | 65.7% | 298 | 1.7 | 23 | 34.3% | 89 | 0.4 | 20.4 |
| St. Louis Rams | 62 | 35 | 56.5% | 210 | 1.1 | 27 | 43.5% | 112 | 1.1 | 19.9 |
Look for the Lions to run a few more plays than normal with their typical pass-heavy play distribution. The passing game will see a slight increase in passing yards, but will have a decreased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will see a slight uptick in rushing yards with their typical low chance for a rushing touchdown. The Lions pass over 67% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
The Rams project to run a few more plays than usual with their typical play distribution. With Case Keenum expected back at quarterback this week, the passing game will see a small increase in passing yards and their likelihood for a touchdown pass. The running game will meet their typical rushing yardage with an increased likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Rams run the ball over 58% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Lions kicker (Matt Prater) (+)
- Case Keenum and the Rams passing game (Jared Cook) (+)
- Todd Gurley chance for rushing TD (++)
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| San Diego Chargers | 68 | 44 | 64.7% | 269 | 1.9 | 24 | 35.3% | 82 | 0.3 | 18.9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 62 | 34 | 54.8% | 254 | 1.4 | 28 | 45.2% | 140 | 1.4 | 26.0 |
The Chargers project to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game will have a significant decrease in passing yards with a decreased opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should perform at their typical level for yardage with their normal low opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Chargers pass almost 70% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Chiefs to run the ball even more often than usual this week. With the extra attempts, the running game will see an increase in rushing yards with their typical opportunity for at least one rushing touchdown. The passing game should produce slightly more passing yards than normal with a slightly increased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The Chiefs run the ball over 64% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Chiefs running game (Both Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware are viable options, I give the slight edge to West) (+)
- Alex Smith and the Chiefs passing game (Travis Kelce) (+)
- I also like the Chiefs defense (+)
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| New Orleans Saints | 68 | 44 | 64.7% | 298 | 2.1 | 24 | 35.3% | 87 | 0.7 | 23.4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 65 | 33 | 50.8% | 257 | 2.1 | 32 | 49.2% | 158 | 0.8 | 26.5 |
The Saints project to execute their typical pass-oriented game plan this week. Expect the passing game to see a slight decrease in passing yards with an increased likelihood for at least two touchdown passes. The running game, with the loss of Mark Ingram, will have a decrease in rushing yards and a decreased opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Saints pass over 51% of the time in the red zone, which could increase with the loss of Ingram.
Look for the Bucs to continue to execute their typical run heavy play distribution this week. The passing game should have an increase in passing yards and a significantly increased likelihood for at least two touchdown passes. The running game will also see an increase in yardage with their typical opportunity for a rushing score. The Bucs pass over 54% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Drew Brees chance for at least 2 TD passes (+)
- Jameis Winston and the Bucs passing game (Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins) (+++)
- Doug Martin rushing yards (+)
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Indianapolis Colts | 68 | 43 | 63.2% | 276 | 2.1 | 25 | 36.8% | 91 | 0.6 | 22.6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 68 | 44 | 64.7% | 293 | 2.2 | 24 | 35.3% | 101 | 0.4 | 23.5 |
The Colts project to run their typical play distribution this week. The passing game should have an increase in passing yards and an increased likelihood for at least two touchdown passes. The running game should produce their typical yardage with an increased chance for a rushing score. The Colts pass over 58% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Jaguars to run a few more plays than usual this week with their normal play distribution. The passing game projects to see a slight increase in passing yards with their typical opportunity for at least two touchdown passes. The ground game will see a very small uptick in rushing yards with their typical low chance for a rushing score. The Jaguars pass almost 65% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Matt Hasselbeck and the Colts passing game (Donte Moncrief and Coby Fleener) (+)
- Frank Gore chance for a rushing TD (+)
- Blake Bortles passing yardage (+)
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Tennessee Titans | 64 | 39 | 60.9% | 240 | 1.7 | 25 | 39.1% | 94 | 0.4 | 18.5 |
| New York Jets | 65 | 35 | 53.8% | 240 | 2.0 | 30 | 46.2% | 120 | 0.9 | 24.5 |
The Titans project to run a few more plays than normal with a slight shift to the passing game this week. Despite a few extra pass attempts, the passing game should perform in line with their typical level of yardage and opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game projects for a decrease in rushing yards and significantly reduced chance for a rushing score. The Titans pass over 56% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Jets to run a couple less plays than usual this week with a shift to the running game. With a decrease in attempts, the passing game will produce less yardage than normal with their typical opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a small increase in rushing yards and a slightly increased likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Jets pass the ball over 53% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Chris Ivory (+)
- Jets Defense (+)
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Seattle Seahawks | 65 | 33 | 50.8% | 237 | 1.7 | 32 | 49.2% | 141 | 0.7 | 23.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 65 | 41 | 63.1% | 252 | 1.2 | 24 | 36.9% | 89 | 0.6 | 18.4 |
The Seahawks project to execute their typical run heavy play distribution. The passing game will produce their normal passing yards with their typical opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game production will also fall in line with their normal rushing yards and opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Seahawks run the ball over 62% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Regardless of who the Ravens have at quarterback this week, look for them to have their normal play distribution. The passing game will be less productive than usual with a decrease in passing yards and a decreased opportunity for any more than one touchdown pass. The running game will also see a slight decrease in yardage with their typical opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Ravens pass the ball over 56% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increase Opportunities:
- None, so give me the Seahawks defense and kicker (Stephen Hauschka) (++)
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Oakland Raiders | 65 | 42 | 64.6% | 239 | 1.6 | 23 | 35.4% | 81 | 0.4 | 19.0 |
| Denver Broncos | 67 | 38 | 56.7% | 265 | 1.6 | 29 | 43.3% | 132 | 0.8 | 23.6 |
Look for the Raiders to pass more often than usual this week. Despite the increase in pass attempts, expect the Raiders to pass for fewer yards than normal with a significantly decreased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will produce fewer rushing yards than normal with a decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Raiders pass over 54% of the time in the red zone.
The Broncos project to run the ball more often than usual this week. Despite the decrease in pass attempts, the passing game should still be productive with a slight increase in passing yards and an increased opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should be effective with an increase in rushing yards and a slightly increased opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Broncos pass over 57% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Brock Osweiler and the Broncos passing game (Demaryius Thomas) (+)
- Broncos running game (Watch the injury report closely, if either CJ Anderson or Ronnie Hillman are inactive then Juwan Thompson could be a sneaky play) (+)
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Dallas Cowboys | 64 | 37 | 57.8% | 237 | 1.2 | 27 | 42.2% | 113 | 0.7 | 18.3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 63 | 35 | 55.6% | 248 | 1.7 | 28 | 44.4% | 126 | 0.8 | 23.2 |
Look for the Cowboys to execute a few more plays than usual with a few more pass attempts than normal. The passing game will have a slight increase in passing yardage and their chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game should perform at their typical level for both yardage and touchdown opportunity. The Cowboys pass over 63% of the time in the red zone.
The Packers project to run the ball more often than usual this week. The increase in rushing attempts will result in more rushing yards than normal with an increased likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The passing game should produce their typical passing yards with a decreased chance for two touchdown passes. The Packers pass over 71% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Matt Cassel and the Cowboys passing game (Jason Witten) (+)
- Packers running game (Gut Call: Lacy goes back to being the lead back this week and has a good game) (++)
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| New England Patriots | 66 | 43 | 65.2% | 277 | 2.1 | 23 | 34.8% | 90 | 0.8 | 25.0 |
| Houston Texans | 70 | 43 | 61.4% | 270 | 1.8 | 27 | 38.6% | 105 | 0.6 | 20.3 |
The Patriots project to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game should produce fewer passing yards than normal with a decreased opportunity for more than two touchdown passes. The running game production should fall in line with their typical rushing yardage with a slightly decreased opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Patriots pass over 58% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Texans to run a couple fewer plays than normal with their typical play distribution. The passing game projects to get their typical passing yardage with a slightly decrease chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will produce their normal rushing yards with a slightly increased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Texans pass over 57% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Chris Polk chance for rushing TD (+)
- I also like both Kickers in this game (especially Stephen Gostkowski) (+)
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| New York Giants | 68 | 43 | 63.2% | 298 | 2.2 | 25 | 36.8% | 102 | 0.4 | 23.2 |
| Miami Dolphins | 65 | 43 | 66.2% | 320 | 2.0 | 22 | 33.8% | 101 | 0.6 | 21.7 |
Look for the Giants to execute a few more plays than usual this week with their typical play distribution. The passing game will see an increase in passing yards and their opportunity for at least two touchdown passes. The running game should see a slight increase in rushing yardage with their typical low chance for a rushing score. The Giants pass over 62% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
The Dolphins project to run more offensive plays than usual this week with their typical play distribution. The passing game should see a significant increase in passing yards and an increased likelihood for two touchdown passes. Look for the running game to perform at their typical level of production for rushing yardage and opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Dolphins pass over 67% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Eli Manning and the Giants passing game (Odell Beckham Jr.) (++)
- Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins passing game (Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker) (+++)
Hopefully, this gives you some potential fantasy football sleepers and GPP picks for the week or gets you to think about some of your own favorite plays based on the data and analysis.
