Well Christmas is upon us and my present to you is this week’s offensive tendencies article. Feel free to print it out, wrap it and put it under the tree if you need a last minute Christmas gift.
We are at the time of the NFL season where numerous teams are out of playoff contention and every year some of these teams seem like they have already packed their bags for the offseason. This week I spot six teams that I have a feeling have given up on the season and will put up less of a fight this week which could lead to a few blowouts. The six teams that I think could be giving up this week are the Chargers, Ravens, Bears, Titans, Cowboys and 49ers. Some are just due to lack of healthy talent while others just don’t have anything to play for and will come out flat. These situations can present themselves to allow DFS players to load up on players from the opposing teams, in particular, the running backs and defenses as they may be playing with a big lead the whole second half. So look to players from teams such as the Raiders, Steelers, Buccaneers, Texans, Bills and Lions for some potential hidden gems.
Hope you and your families all have a happy and safe holiday season!
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| San Diego Chargers | 69 | 45 | 65.2% | 289 | 1.7 | 24 | 34.8% | 91 | 0.4 | 20.9 |
| Oakland Raiders | 62 | 38 | 61.3% | 287 | 2.1 | 24 | 38.7% | 111 | 0.7 | 24.4 |
The Chargers project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will not be as effective as usual with fewer passing yards and a reduced chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a very slight increase in rushing yards with their typical low opportunity for a rushing score. The Chargers pass over 67% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Raiders to run the ball slightly more often than usual this week. With the increase in rush attempts the running game will produce more rushing yards than usual with a significantly increased chance for a rushing touchdown. The passing game will still be productive with a slight increase in passing yards and their typical likelihood for at least two touchdown passes. The Raiders run the ball over 54% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Derek Carr passing yardage (+)
- Latavius Murray (+++)
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Washington Redskins | 68 | 41 | 60.3% | 273 | 1.9 | 27 | 39.7% | 111 | 0.6 | 22.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 66 | 37 | 56.1% | 273 | 1.8 | 29 | 43.9% | 140 | 0.8 | 23.4 |
Look for the Redskins to execute a few more plays than usual with an increase in pass attempts. The passing game will have an increase in passing yards and their likelihood for two touchdown passes. The running game will also see a slight increase in rushing yardage with their typical opportunity for one rushing touchdown. The Redskins pass over 56% of the time in the red zone.
The Eagles are projected to run the ball more often than usual this week. The passing game will have a slight increase in yardage with an increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will produce significantly more rushing yards than usual with their typical opportunity for one touchdown run. The Eagles run over 58% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Kirk Cousins and the Redskins passing game (DeSean Jackson) (++)
- Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing game (Zach Ertz) (+)
- Eagles rushing yards (Split backfield, but I expect Ryan Matthews to be the best play this week) (++)
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Chicago Bears | 66 | 37 | 56.1% | 243 | 1.6 | 29 | 43.9% | 104 | 0.7 | 22.0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 63 | 33 | 52.4% | 241 | 1.7 | 30 | 47.6% | 152 | 0.7 | 23.0 |
The Bears project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will produce their typical passing yardage, but will have an increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight decrease in rushing yardage and the opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Bears pass over 55% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Buccaneers to run the ball a little more often than usual this week. The passing game will produce their typical level of passing yards but will have an increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards with their typical opportunity for a rushing score. The Buccaneers pass the ball over 57% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Jay Cutler chance for 2nd TD pass (+)
- Jameis Winston chance for 2nd TD pass (+)
- Doug Martin rushing yards (+)
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Carolina Panthers | 66 | 32 | 48.5% | 233 | 1.8 | 34 | 51.5% | 142 | 1.4 | 26.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 68 | 43 | 63.2% | 261 | 1.4 | 25 | 36.8% | 102 | 0.8 | 19.8 |
Look for the Panthers to execute their typical run heavy play distribution this week. The passing game will have a slight decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical level of rushing yards, but will have an increased opportunity for two rushing touchdowns. The Panthers run the ball over 59% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
The Falcons project to go to the air slightly more often than normal this week. The passing game will produce fewer passing yards than usual with a slightly increased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will produce their typical rushing yardage and opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Falcons run the ball slightly more than 50% of their offensive plays inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Panthers rushing TDs (I expect Cam Newton to get one this week) (++)
- Panthers Defense (+)
Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Dallas Cowboys | 63 | 34 | 54.0% | 213 | 1.2 | 29 | 46.0% | 122 | 0.8 | 19.0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 64 | 32 | 50.0% | 230 | 1.4 | 32 | 50.0% | 151 | 1.2 | 22.9 |
The Cowboys will start Kellen Moore at quarterback this week. With Moore at quarterback look for the Cowboys to have a slight shift to the running game this week. As a result, the passing game will have a slight decrease in passing yards, but will still have an increased likelihood for at least one touchdown pass. The running game will get a slight uptick in yardage and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Cowboys pass the ball over 63% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Look for the Bills to run the ball even more often than usual this week. The passing game will produce their typical passing yards, but will have a decreased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will have a slight uptick in rushing yards and their opportunity for at least one rushing touchdown. The Bills run the ball over 61% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Darren McFadden (+)
- Bills running game (Looks like a split between Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee this week, I’d give the edge to Williams) (+)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 65 | 42 | 64.6% | 287 | 2.6 | 23 | 35.4% | 100 | 0.6 | 25.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 69 | 44 | 63.8% | 328 | 2.2 | 25 | 36.2% | 101 | 0.9 | 25.8 |
The Jaguars project to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game will see an increase in passing yards and their opportunity for three touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical rushing yardage with a slightly increased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Jaguars pass the ball over 64% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Saints to execute their typical play distribution assuming that Drew Brees is able to play. The passing game will have a slight increase in passing yards and their opportunity for at least two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight uptick in yardage with their typical opportunity for one rushing touchdown. The Saints pass over 53% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Blake Bortles and the Jaguars passing game (Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas) (++)
- Denard Robinson chance for rushing TD (+)
- Drew Brees and the Saints passing game (Benjamin Watson) (+)
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| San Francisco 49ers | 62 | 38 | 61.3% | 223 | 1.2 | 24 | 38.7% | 91 | 0.4 | 18.3 |
| Detroit Lions | 66 | 41 | 62.1% | 314 | 1.9 | 25 | 37.9% | 111 | 0.8 | 24.1 |
Look for the 49ers to run a few more plays than normal with a slight shift to the passing game. The passing game will produce their typical yardage with an increased chance for at least one touchdown pass. The running game will produce their typical yardage and low chance for a rushing touchdown. The 49ers pass the ball over 64% of the time in the red zone.
The Lions project to execute a couple more plays than normal with a shift to the running game this week. With the increased rushing attempts the running game will produce significantly more rushing yards than normal with an increased opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The passing game will also see a slight increase in passing yards with their typical opportunity for two touchdown passes. The Lions pass over 64% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Ameer Abdullah (++)
- Detroit defense (++)
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Cleveland Browns | 65 | 43 | 66.2% | 248 | 1.4 | 22 | 33.8% | 80 | 0.3 | 16.2 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 63 | 34 | 54.0% | 258 | 1.7 | 29 | 46.0% | 142 | 1.2 | 26.3 |
The Browns project to put the ball in the air slightly more often than usual this week. The passing game will have a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for more than one touchdown pass. The running game is projected for a decrease in rushing yards with their typical low chance for a rushing touchdown. The Browns pass the ball over 67% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Look for the Chiefs to run the ball more often than usual this week. Despite fewer attempts the passing game should be effective producing more passing yards than normal with an increase chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will also see an increase in yardage with their typical opportunity for at least one rushing score. The Chiefs run the ball over 64% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Alex Smith and the Chiefs passing game (Jeremy Maclin) (++)
- Chiefs rushing yardage (Split backfield with Spencer Ware expected back, if both play then take the cheaper option, Ware) (+)
- Chiefs defense (++)
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Indianapolis Colts | 68 | 43 | 63.2% | 283 | 2.1 | 25 | 36.8% | 95 | 0.4 | 21.3 |
| Miami Dolphins | 64 | 42 | 65.6% | 292 | 2.0 | 22 | 34.4% | 104 | 0.7 | 22.2 |
The Colts project to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game should see a slight increase in passing yards and their likelihood for two touchdown passes. The running game will see a slight uptick in rushing yards with their typical low opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Colts pass over 60% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Look for the Dolphins to execute a few more plays than normal with their typical play distribution. The passing game should perform well putting up more passing yards than normal with an increased likelihood for two touchdown passes. The Dolphins pass over 70% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Colts passing game (I can’t recommend Matt Hasselbeck, because I don’t know if he can make it through another game, so just give a bump to the receivers, TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief) (++)
- Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins passing game (Jarvis Landry) (++)
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| New England Patriots | 66 | 42 | 63.6% | 281 | 2.2 | 24 | 36.4% | 91 | 0.4 | 24.3 |
| New York Jets | 67 | 40 | 59.7% | 250 | 1.7 | 27 | 40.3% | 110 | 0.7 | 21.3 |
The Patriots project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will still be effective, but will see a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for more than two touchdown passes. The running game should produce their typical rushing yardage, but will have a decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Patriots pass over 57% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Jets to pass more often than usual this week. The passing game will fall just short of their typical passing yardage and have a decreased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will perform in line with their typical production for both rushing yardage and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Jets pass the ball over 53% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- None, so I will take the kickers (Stephen Gostkowski and Randy Bullock) (+)
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Houston Texans | 67 | 36 | 53.7% | 227 | 1.8 | 31 | 46.3% | 117 | 0.8 | 21.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 62 | 38 | 61.3% | 240 | 1.7 | 24 | 38.7% | 100 | 0.6 | 20.3 |
The Texans are unsure who their starting quarterback will be this week between Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden. The projection could swing depending on who starts, I am going to assume that Brandon Weeden starts and the offense will focus more on the running game than normal. The passing game projects to produce fewer passing yards than normal with a decreased chance for two touchdown passes. With increased carries, look for the running game to have an increase in rushing yards and a significantly increased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Texans pass over 58% of the time in the red zone.
The Titans will start Zach Mettenberger at quarterback this week but should still execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will produce their typical passing yardage and opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will also perform at their typical level for yardage and opportunity for a rushing score. The Titans pass over 56% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Alfred Blue (++)
- Texans defense (+)
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Green Bay Packers | 64 | 38 | 59.4% | 253 | 1.8 | 26 | 40.6% | 112 | 0.6 | 22.3 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 66 | 36 | 54.5% | 278 | 1.8 | 30 | 45.5% | 140 | 1.1 | 25.7 |
The Packers are projected to pass slightly more often than normal this week. The passing game will have a slight increase in passing yards, but will have a decreased chance for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game projects to gain fewer rushing yards than normal with their typical opportunity for one rushing score. The Packers pass over 67% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
The Cardinals project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will have fewer passing yards than normal with a decreased chance for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will have an increase in rushing yards with their typical likelihood for a rushing score. The Cardinals pass over 56% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- David Johnson rushing yards (+)
- Gut Call: Both passing games perform better than the numbers suggest, I like Aaron Rodgers, Richard Rodgers and James Starks in the passing game for the Packers, along with Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd for the Cardinals) (++)
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| St. Louis Rams | 59 | 34 | 57.6% | 186 | 0.7 | 25 | 42.4% | 98 | 0.8 | 14.7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 67 | 34 | 50.7% | 269 | 1.8 | 33 | 49.3% | 154 | 0.7 | 24.4 |
Look for the Rams to pass more often than usual this week as they try to keep up with the Seahawks. The passing game will produce their typical yardage and limited opportunity for one touchdown pass. The running game will have a decrease in rushing yards and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Rams run the ball over 52% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Seahawks to run a few more plays than normal with their typical play distribution. The passing game will see a slight increase in passing yards, but will have a decreased opportunity for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in yards with their typical opportunity for one rushing touchdown. The Seahawks run the ball over 53% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Seahawks defense (+)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 64 | 39 | 60.9% | 308 | 2.1 | 25 | 39.1% | 115 | 0.8 | 26.6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 67 | 42 | 62.7% | 247 | 1.4 | 25 | 37.3% | 93 | 0.4 | 17.3 |
The Steelers project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will be effective with an increase in passing yards and their opportunity for at least two touchdown passes. The running game will perform in line with their typical production for both yardage and touchdown opportunity. The Steelers pass over 52% of the time in the red zone.
The Ravens appear to be undecided on who will start at quarterback this week between Jimmy Clausen and Ryan Mallett. Regardless of who starts look for the Ravens to have a slight lean more to the running game than usual. The passing game will have a decrease in both passing yards and their opportunity for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will produce their typical rushing yardage and low chance for a rushing score. The Ravens pass over 56% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increase Opportunities:
- Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing game (Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant) (++)
- Steelers defense (++)
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| New York Giants | 65 | 40 | 61.5% | 253 | 1.9 | 25 | 38.5% | 97 | 0.4 | 20.7 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 67 | 34 | 50.7% | 253 | 1.6 | 33 | 49.3% | 155 | 1.0 | 23.7 |
Look for the Giants to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game will lack some explosiveness without Odell Beckham and as a result, will see a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will produce their typical yardage and low opportunity for a rushing score. The Giants pass the ball over 66% of the time in the red zone.
The Vikings project to continue to have their run heavy play distribution this week. The passing game will be effective with the opportunities they get producing more passing yard than normal with an increased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will also have an increase in rushing yardage with their typical likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Vikings run the ball over 56% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings passing game (Kyle Rudolph) (++)
- Vikings rushing yards (Watch Adrian Peterson status, if he is inactive or if the Vikings don’t have anything to play for because of the outcomes of the afternoon games, then Jerick McKinnon could be a good contrarian play this week) (+)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 64 | 36 | 56.3% | 220 | 1.4 | 28 | 43.8% | 92 | 0.9 | 20.6 |
| Denver Broncos | 66 | 40 | 60.6% | 270 | 1.3 | 26 | 39.4% | 122 | 0.8 | 19.8 |
The Bengals will have AJ McCarron at quarterback again this week and will likely need to pass more often than last week against the Broncos this week. The passing game will have a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will also see a decrease in rushing yards and their opportunity for a rushing score. The Bengals run the ball over 59% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
The Broncos project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will have a slight increase in passing yards with their typical opportunity for at least one touchdown pass. The running game will have an increase in rushing yards and a slightly increased likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Broncos pass the ball over 53% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Broncos running game (Gut call is that Ronnie Hillman gets the early carries and is ineffective before giving way to CJ Anderson who has a strong game) (++)
Hopefully, this gives you some potential fantasy football sleepers and GPP plays for the week and gets you to think about some of your own favorite plays based on the data and analysis.
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