Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and Happy Holidays to everyone reading.
I wish you the best during this time of giving and family.
This week’s Vegas write-up is going to be very brief. It was just difficult to get around to the commentary this week with all the hubbub.
Everything is business as usual and I have some buying and selling options when looking ahead to Week 16, but the narrative won’t be in-depth.
Good luck if you find time to sneak in those lineups. May DFS be kind to you.
| Week 15 | Opening O/U | Opening Spread | Opening ML | Closing O/U | Closing Spread | Closing ML | Projected Score | Final Score | Grade |
| Houston at Indianapolis | 42.5 | -1 – Ind | Even | 42 | -2 – Ind | -130 – Ind | 22 – 20 – Ind | 16-10 – Hou | 2 pts. – D |
| Kansas City at Baltimore | 43 | -7 – KC | -302- KC | 41 | -7 – KC | -280 – KC | 24 – 17 – KC | 34-14 – KC | 2 pts. – D |
| Tennessee at New England | 46.5 | -12.5 – NE | -1100 – NE | 48 | -14.5 – NE | -1100 – NE | 31.25 – 16.75 – NE | 33-16 – NE | 6 pts. – B |
| Chicago at Minnesota | 43 | -4.5 – Min | -250 – Min | 44 | -4 – Min | -200 – Min | 24 – 20 – Min | 38-17 – Min | 2 pts. – D |
| Atlanta at Jacksonville | 48 | -3 – Jax | -165 – Jax | 48 | -2 – Jax | -130 – Jax | 25 – 23 – Jax | 23-17 – Atl | 1 pt. – F |
| Buffalo at Washington | 44 | Even | -125 – Buf | 46 | -2 – Buf | -130 – Buf | 24 – 22 – Buf | 35-25 – Wash | 1 pt. – F |
| Carolina at NY Giants | 49 | -4 – Car | -190 – Car | 46.5 | -5 – Car | -225 – Car | 25.75 – 20.75 – Car | 38-35 – Car | 5 pts. – B |
| Green Bay at Oakland | 46.5 | -2.5 – GB | -160 – GB | 47 | -4 – GB | -205 – GB | 25.5 – 21.5 – GB | 30-20 – GB | 7 pts. – A |
| Cleveland at Seattle | 43 | -14 – Sea | -1099 – Sea | 45.5 | -14.5 – Sea | -1200 – Sea | 30 – 15.5 – Sea | 30-13 – Sea | 7 pts. – A |
| Miami at San Diego | 45.5 | Even | Even | 47 | -1 – SD | Even | 24 – 23 – SD | 30-14 – SD | 5 pts. – B |
| Denver at Pittsburgh | 45 | -6.5 – Pit | -270 – Pit | 45.5 | -7 – Pit | -330 – Pit | 26.25 – 19.25 – Pit | 34-27 – Pit | 3 pts. – C |
| Cincinnati at San Francisco | 42 | -4 – Cin | -195 – Cin | 40.5 | -7 – Cin | -300 – Cin | 23.75 – 16.75 – Cin | 24-14 – Cin | 7 pts. – A |
| Arizona at Philadelphia | 50.5 | -3.5 – Ari | -170 – Ari | 51 | -4 – Ari | -200 – Ari | 27.5 – 23.5 – Ari | 40-17 – Ari | 5 pts. – B |
| Detroit at New Orleans | 51 | -3 – NO | -160 – NO | 52.5 | -2.5 – NO | -145 – NO | 27.5 – 25 – NO | 35-27 – Det | 2 pts. – D |
Did you hear about the woman who pulled off the 15-team parlay bet in Week 15?
She bet $5, won $100K. Crazy luck, but good for her. I enjoy hearing out-of-this-world stories like that.
Anyway, moving right along to the grades. We had 3 As! We had 5 all year long and then a 3-burger this week. Pretty great for Vegas, which recorded 8 grades of C or better. There were 5 Fs, including the Falcons/Jaguars game (very disappointing for me in DFS as well).
Below are the total grades for Week 15 and for the year.
| Scale | Week 15 Grades | Total Grades |
| 1 or less – F | A – 3 | A – 8 |
| 2 – D | B – 4 | B – 65 |
| 3 – C | C – 1 | C – 40 |
| 4-6 – B | D – 4 | D – 46 |
| 7-8 – A | F – 5 | F – 48 |
Now let’s take a quick look into Week 16, where we will have 14 games for the second week in a row as Saturday occupies at least one game for the rest of the year.
| Week 16 | Opening O/U | Opening Spread | Opening ML |
| San Francisco at Detroit | 40.5 | -8.5 – Det | -380 – Det |
| Indianapolis at Miami | 44 | -1 – Mia | -125 – Mia |
| New England at NY Jets | 45.5 | -3 – NE | -160 – NE |
| Dallas at Buffalo | 43 | -5.5 – Buf | -275 – Buf |
| Houston at Tennessee | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Carolina at Atlanta | 46 | -6.5 – Car | -270 – Car |
| Cleveland at Kansas City | 45 | -12.5 – KC | -699 – KC |
| Chicago at Tampa Bay | 44.5 | -2.5 – TB | -150 – TB |
| Pittsburgh at Baltimore | 48.5 | -9.5 – Pit | -510 – Pit |
| Jacksonville at New Orleans | 51.5 | -3.5 – NO | N/A |
| St. Louis at Seattle | 40 | -14 – Sea | -690 – Sea |
| Green Bay at Arizona | 49.5 | -4 – Ari | -225 – Ari |
| NY Giants at Minnesota | 44.5 | -4 – Min | -270 – Min |
| Cincinnati at Denver | 42 | -3.5 – Den | -195 – Den |
Houston and Tennessee didn’t have any lines released at the time of publishing. I assume this is because Vegas is waiting to hear about the status of Texans’ QB Brian Hoyer. If he plays, that changes this game entirely.
Why? Because Brandon Weeden. He will single-handedly tank Nuk’s value if he starts (trust me, I am a Cowboys’ fan and he couldn’t hit No. 88 if he were 10-feet tall).
If Brian Hoyer plays, fire him and Nuk up. I am putting that order on lay-a-way until I hear of the news.
I am also going to SELL Antonio Brown’s value this week. Don’t get me wrong, he could go nuts, and I wouldn’t be surprised. I will be using him in cash games and tournaments. However, I think his ownership will be high in tournaments and his ceiling may take a hit due to the opponent. If the Steelers’ get up big quickly, which I expect, Brown won’t be needed for much of the game. Hope he scores early and often, but Martavis Bryant is there to steal some of the thunder as well.
If Baltimore can somehow keep it close with the Ryan Mallet or Jimmy Clausen tandem, then I like the over in this game, but I am just going to choose the under, in a blowout.
I am buying Jacksonville and New Orleans on the over this week, but ONLY if the Saints start Drew Brees. With the Saints out of the playoff picture, they didn’t put up much of a fight against the Lions in a losing effort on Monday night. With nothing to play for and career records in hand, I could see Brees sitting, which would really hinder the Saints’ offensive production, even against a porous Jags’ D. Love the Jags no matter what, though.
Also selling the points on the Arizona/GB game. Arizona is at home and Green Bay still hasn’t convinced me it is a consistent enough offense to move the ball down the field enough. Tyrann Mathieu’s injury could make things interesting though, so I think GB gets a bump offensively without the Honey Badger.
Lastly, I am buying Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin. A major down week due to injury and a huge lead hindered AP’s production against the Bears. But now he gets extra rest for a Sunday night tilt against the Giants, who could very well lay down after an emotional loss to the Panthers last week. Peterson should shoulder the load and hopefully he plays the entire game without a setback.
As for the Muscle Hamster, Lovie Smith wants to get him that rushing title. He’s facing the leaky Bears’ run D at home and he’s had a couple of down weeks. Love the Douggernaught this week.
| Week 15 | Overall |
| O vs. U – 9-5 | O vs. U – 99-99-5 |
| Favorite vs. Underdog – 10-4 | Favorite vs. Underdog – 126-73-1 |
| Favorite Wins with <120 Money Line – 0-0 | Team Wins with <120 Money Line – 6-1 |
| Favorite Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 0-3 | Team Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 14-18 |
| Favorite Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 0-1 | Team Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 20-9 |
| Favorite Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 0-0 | Team Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 14-8 |
| Favorite Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 5-0 | Team Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 40-21 |
| Favorite Wins with 300+ Money Line – 4-0 | Team Wins with 300+ Money Line – 37-12 |
| Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 6-1 | Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 68-34 |
| Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 2-2 | Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 31-34 |
| Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 1-0 | Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 21-5 |
| High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Pts. – 3-1 | High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Points – 23-24 |
| Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 2-1 | Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 10-16 |
| Divisional Games O vs. U – 1-1 | Divisional Games O vs. U – 30-32-1 |
| Division O/U 48+ O vs. U – 0-0 | Division O/U 48+ O vs. U – 6-8 |
| Division O/U 42-47.5 O vs. U – 2-3 | Division O/U 42-47.5 O vs. U – 22-19-1 |
| Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 0-0 | Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 2-2 |
Above we have our Vegas records for spreads and money lines. The spread record that stays the same from open to close came through once again this week. At a whopping 21-5, look for the game or games that have that prior to kickoff and roster players in DFS. I bet you will be satisfied.
Below are the usual Vegas team and actual season records for each team. That’s it for this week. Told you it would be short and sweet. Enjoy your family time this weekend and good luck!
| Team | Vegas Records Through Week 15 | Actual Records Through Week 15 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8 – 5 – 1 | 7 – 7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 13 – 1 | 12 – 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8 – 6 | 3 – 11 |
| Buffalo Bills | 5 – 7 – 1 | 6 – 8 |
| Carolina Panthers | 11 – 3 | 14 – 0 |
| Chicago Bears | 2 – 12 | 5 – 9 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11 – 2 – 1 | 11 – 3 |
| Cleveland Browns | 4 – 10 | 3 – 11 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5 – 9 | 4 – 10 |
| Denver Broncos | 10 – 4 | 10 – 4 |
| Detroit Lions | 3 – 10 | 4 – 9 |
| Green Bay Packers | 13 – 1 | 10 – 4 |
| Houston Texans | 6 – 8 | 7 – 7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7 – 7 | 6 – 8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 – 10 | 5 – 8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9 – 5 | 9 – 5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 5 – 9 | 6 – 8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8 – 6 | 9 – 5 |
| New England Patriots | 14 – 0 | 12 – 2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 – 8 | 5 – 8 |
| New York Giants | 7 – 7 | 6 – 8 |
| New York Jets | 12 – 2 | 9 – 5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 4 – 10 | 6 – 8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9 – 4 | 6 – 8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 – 8 – 1 | 10 – 4 |
| San Diego Chargers | 6 – 8 | 4 – 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1 – 13 | 4 – 10 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 12 – 2 | 8 – 6 |
| St. Louis Rams | 7 – 7 | 7 – 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccanneers | 3 – 10 – 1 | 6 – 8 |
| Tennessee Titans | 3 – 10 – 1 | 3 – 11 |
| Washington Redskins | 3 – 11 | 7 – 7 |
