After taking a short breather, golf returns this week at Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, IL. The BMW Championship was last played here in 2013, and that was the only time this course has hosted a PGA event. Needless to say, course history data will be a little light this week.
2013 BMW Championship
1. Zach Johnson -16
2. Nick Watney -14
3. Jim Furyk -13
T-4. Jason Day -11
T-4. Luke Donald -11
T-4. Hunter Mahan -11
T-4. Steve Striker -11
T-8. Matt Jones -10
T-8. Charl Schwartzel -10
T-8. Brandt Snedeker -10
Full Results
It’s an obviously small sample size, but the 2013 edition of the BMW was dominated by great wedge players. Will that trend continue in 2015? I think so.
Conway Farms is a 7,198-yard par 71. Most of its par 4s are on the shorter side of 450; and while two of its three par 5s are reachable in two, going for it brings a lot of danger into play. I’m a nerd, and I watched the flyover videos for each hole. It was clear that importance will be placed on course management and accuracy (especially from 100 yards). You want the guys who are going to hit fairways and stick it close on the greens.
The experts were in moderate agreement as far as which statistics you should be targeting this week. Not coincidentally, they align well with the idea that you want to focus on accuracy. You can find those stats below along with the top five golfers in the field for each category.
(Note: Rory McIlory has not played enough rounds to qualify for statistical ranking on pgatour.com. If you want to view his profile, just click here.)
- Bubba Watson 1.954
- Henrik Stenson 1.910
- Jim Furyk 1.635
- Jordan Spieth 1.527
- Webb Simpson 1.423
- Jimmy Walker .781
- Brandt Snedeker .650
- Russell Henley .650
- Daniel Summerhays .641
- Jason Day .605
- Jason Bohn 71.67%
- Zach Johnson 71.54%
- Brendon Todd 70.42%
- Jerry Kelly 70.02%
- Henrik Stenson 69.67%
- Henrik Stenson 74.25%
- Paul Casey 72.22%
- Russell Knox 71.14%
- Jason Day 70.92%
- Justin Rose 70.50%
Note: The “ball striking” stat is derived from a golfer’s ranking in driving accuracy plus his ranking in greens in regulation %. As such, I’m going to include ball striking in this list for those of you who are looking for golfers that are strong in both areas.
- Henrik Stenson
- Justin Rose
- Paul Casey
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Billy Horschel
- Jim Furyk 31.42′
- Jason Bohn 31.50′
- Russell Knox 31.67′
- Justin Rose 33.25′
- Paul Casey 33.75′
- Jordan Spieth 3.93
- Jason Day 3.93
- Hideki Matsuyama 3.96
- Henrik Stenson 3.96
- Jason Bohn 3.97
Keeping those stats in mind, these are the guys the experts like this week.
*****EXPERT CONSENSUS*****
Highly Touted
- Danny Lee $7,700
- Henrik Stenson $11,400
- Jim Furyk $10,000
- Kevin Na $7,200
- Zach Johnson $9,500
Recommended
- Brendon de Jonge $6,800
- Daniel Summerhays $7,400
- Jason Day $12,600
- Kevin Kisner $8,100
- Matt Kuchar $9,200
- Robert Streb $8,000
Suggested
- Brandt Snedeker $7,900
- Hideki Matsuyama $8,900
- Justin Thomas $7,600
- Louis Oosthuizen $8,400
- Rory Sabbatini $7,300
- Russell Knox $7,400
- Tony Finau $7,600
A few quick thoughts… Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson were clearly the most popular picks. Almost every article I read mentioned them. It looks like Jason Day’s price will keep his ownership number at a reasonable level. If you like him, don’t be afraid to play him. There was almost no mention of Jordan Spieth (not surprising given his recent form) or Rickie Fowler (kind of shocking). Although experts think differently than the public, the Consensus has always been a relatively good predictor of ownership levels. I was under the impression that Rickie was going to be super popular this week, but that might not be the case.
Back in a few with Pivots & Punts.
oreo
Trackbacks & Pingbacks
[…] the first half, I’m going to use the Expert Consensus to identify some golfers that might end up being over-owned and give you potentially lower-owned […]
Comments are closed.