With a big slate of 10 games tonight there are a lot of different ways you can go at pitcher. There are three Aces on the hill including Corey Kluber, Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard who are all in good spots to put up solid fantasy production. Also now that we have some 2016 data we can start to analyze I have begun to “blend” team and player statistics from previous years and this season in my evaluations as you will see mentioned in my player analysis.
Ace
Corey Kluber (FD-$10,600 / DK-$12,200)
With a trio of aces pitching tonight the choice of which one to roster was a difficult choice. All three options (Fernandez, Syndergaard and Kluber) warrant consideration but Kluber is my choice tonight especially on FanDuel where he is a few hundred dollar cheaper than both Fernandez and Syndergaard. The Rays’ blended K-rate (weighting last year and the beginning of this season) against righties is 21.9% with is the 7th worst in baseball. On DraftKings, I would give serious consideration to Syndergaard at almost $2,000 less than Kluber and Fernandez.
Value
Gio Gonzalez (FD-$9,300 / DK-$8,600)
Gonzalez is in a good spot tonight if you are looking to pay down a little bit from the aces. He is a sizable favorite pitching at home against the Braves who have the 2nd worst blended wOBA against lefties at only .275. Gonzalez might not rack up the strikeouts but he should be able to pitch six or seven innings allowing very few runs and pick up a win. Gonzalez is a stronger play on DraftKings where he is cheaper and you need two pitchers.
Wade Miley (FD-$6,600 / DK-$8,200)
Miley faces a Rangers team tonight that strikes out at the 8th highest blended rate against lefties at 22.7% who he struck out seven times over six innings in his first outing this season. Miley did give up five runs in that outing but will now get to face the Rangers in pitcher friendly Safe Co. Miley is a stronger play on FanDuel due to his low price tag. He could also be an option on DraftKings but I do prefer Gonzalez at just $400 more.
Darkhorse
Robbie Erlin (FD-$5,600 / DK-$7,100)
Erlin has only started 23 games in the majors over the last three season and will likely not be on many DFS players radar tonight but he is pitching in a good situation tonight facing a Phillies team that has the 3rd highest blended K% against lefties at 23.5% and the 6th worst blended wOBA against lefties at .294. With game time temperatures in the 50s and the wind blowing in from left field, Erlin should be able to limit the Phillies and have a chance for a win tonight.
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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