It was a rough day for pitchers on Wednesday night including three of my picks. We’ll look to bounce-back on tonight’s full 15-game slate that is full of aces. With so many aces on the hill, many of the value plays just don’t seem to be worth the salary savings so I will give two Aces tonight along with a Value play and Darkhorse pick.
Ace
Jose Fernandez (FD-$11,700 / DK-$13,400)
Fernandez is by far my top ace pick tonight. He has been fantastic this season especially at home with a 1.72 ERAS and 40.8% strikeout rate. Fernandez will face a Reds’ team that has the 4th worst wOBA (.297) and 2nd worst wRC+ (79) against righties this season. He is a huge favorite and is a great Cash and GPP play on a night where the ownership percentages could be a little spread out with so many aces on the hill.
Chris Sale (FD-$11,000 / DK-$13,500)
If I pivot away from Fernandez, then I will likely go with Sale who has a favorable matchup against a Braves offense that ranks second to last in wOBA (.273) and wRC+ (67) to lefties. I expect Sale to pitch deep into the game tonight with the All-Star break looming and he has the potential upside to pitch a no-hitter (how is that for bold “gut call”?). I will definitely have some exposure to Sale in GPPs in case he has a magical night.
Value
Jeff Samardjiza (FD-$9,100 / DK-$8,900)
Samardjiza comes in as my lone value play tonight. He has a good matchup pitching at home as a favorite against the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks have struck out 23.3% (5th worst) against righties this season and Samardjiza has pitched had some success against them this season with a 2.93 ERA, no walks and eight strikeouts in two starts, both in Arizona. I would limit my Samardjiza exposure tonight to a potential #2 Cash or GPP option on two-pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
Matt Shoemaker (FD-$7,700 / DK-$6,700)
I will likely have more exposure to Shoemaker tonight then Samardjiza. Shoemaker has pitched great over his last nine starts with a 2.45 ERA and 10.25 K/9. He has big strikeout potential tonight against an Orioles offense that has struck out 22.5% (7th worst) against righties this season. Shoemaker has also had great success against the Orioles hitters so far in his career allowing just a .167 wOBA with a 40% strikeout rate in 55 plate appearances. Not a huge sample but when looking for a cheap play with upside it needs to be taken into consideration. Shoemaker is a great GPP option if you want to get away from all the high-priced aces and potential Cash game option as a #2 starter on DraftKings.
On the Hill – Results
Wednesday
| Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| Ace | Johnny Cueto | 11800 | 37.15 | A+ |
| Value | Drew Smyly | 8100 | -5.60 | F |
| Value | Jaime Garcia | 8300 | 10.45 | C |
| Dark | Shelby Miller | 4600 | 4.45 | D |
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 27 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 50 | $11,862 | 25.36 | 6.48 |
| Value | 21 | 12 | 12 | 26 | 3 | 29 | 103 | $8,646 | 15.78 | 3.50 |
| Dark | 19 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 55 | $6,582 | 16.28 | 4.73 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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