Week 13 was a slate chock full of receiver value. Being able to utilize that value allowed you to pay up for the top RBs easily, and if you did that, you likely were profitable.
I started to look at things differently last week, and it was a so-so effort as far as my picks were concerned. I provided some great picks and some duds, and could’ve done a better job at narrowing the field, but there was so much I liked. Truthfully, I think my viewpoint on many of my plays was a cash-game way of thinking, and not as much of a tournament way of thinking as many of my plays were middle of the road as far as output. If you played many of them in cash, you would’ve likely made money (assuming you were smart and didn’t over think Le’Veon and David Johnson).
I can say play Le’Veon, DJ and Elliott each week, but come on, if you NEED me or someone else to tell you that, then maybe you need to freshen up on your NFL DFS strategy. I am not going to cop out just to get an easier grading total. I’ve been that way with baseball and college football in the past. It does me no good in helping you if I tell you to play the obvious guys. I want to help you find guys to build around the more obvious plays. Anyway…
Week14 isn’t really much different than last week – top flight RBs with great matchups, but there’s a few differences on this 14-game slate.
- The receiver value isn’t as clear cut in my opinion. But if we get some late injury news, then it could open up some much needed value at the position.
- Pricing – I feel many players are priced up or at their current or projected production with the exception of some guys i can’t pull the trigger on and the picks I am providing below.
- I wish I could just pick David Johnson and Le”Veon Bell each week, that certainly would help my current ranking in the Expert Standings. Boy are those guys ridiculously good and useful.
- Lots of divisional/defensive games. Divisional games, especially the second-time through, typically result in lower game scores. There’s lots of teams with good offenses that look like they are facing tough defenses on paper. And we also have a couple of games to think of differently because of potential weather conditions.
Overall, I think this a tougher slate to break down outside of the top guys. There also aren’t any sure fire quarterback plays this week, but surely Brees can’t go 0-fer in the touchdown department again can he?
Anyway, I won’t ramble on any longer like last week when I eloquently discussed sock laundry basketball….let’s get to the picks!
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Aaron Rodgers – QB – Packers – vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,400
Analysis: If there’s a lock at quarterback for cash games (and even a great tournament play), it’s Aaron Rodgers. I understand there may be some weather issues, but even in bad weather last week against a good pass defense, Rodgers nearly got to 20 points. I don’t think the weather is going to be near what we saw this week (but hey, I am not a weatherman either), but from what I have read so far, forecasts don’t appear to have as much snow during game time. Of course that could all change, so watch the weather closer to lock. But this price for Aaron Rodgers at home in a cold-weather game is ridiculous.I know it’s Seattle, but I think this defense’s stats are skewed this season. Here’s the quarterbacks Seattle has faced through 12 games: Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Tyrod Taylor, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston and Cam Newton. I think we would all agree that half of these contests are against woeful QBs, three of which aren’t even their team’s starters anymore. The rest are against talented/veteran/elite Qbs. I put Tyrod, Jameis, Palmer, Cam, Ryan and Brees in this category. So against the scrubs, Seattle has allowed 186 yards passing per game and a measly 13.8 points per game. In the games against the other group, Seattle is allowing 263 yards passing per game and 17.9 points per game. On the road against the veteran/elite/talented QBs, Seattle’s pass defense has allowed passing totals of 311 (Palmer), 252 (Brees), 304 (Brady) and 182 (Cam). The Packers don’t have a running game and Rodgers is going to throw, throw, throw against a defense that is hobbled and just lost safety Earl Thomas. This game’s total is at 48 points and is going to have a playoff feel. Give me Rodgers over all of the elite-priced QBs this week.
