NFL Hot Sheet – Week 16 (Saturday) – 2020

NFL DFS Picks – Week 16 (Saturday)

We have another NFL Saturday slate with three games on the docket for the day after Christmas. Here is a free NFL Hot Sheet for the mini slate with my top DFS plays at each position. Merry Christmas!

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Rankings for receivers by position (WR/TE) are based on grades from ProFootballFocus (PFF).

Week 16 (Saturday) Hot Sheet

Top Plays

QB

• Kyler Murray (ARI) – Murray provides the highest floor and ceiling combo on the three-game slate. Murray put up 230 passing yards with a touchdown pass and added 91 yards on the ground with a rushing score in Week 1 against the 49ers.
• Matthew Stafford (DET) – While the Buccaneers are stout against the run they have been vulnerable to the pass, especially over the last five weeks giving up 355 passing yards (32nd) and 2.5 touchdown passes (29th) per game during that stretch.

RB

• Leonard Fournette (TB) – Fournette dominated the backfield last week with Ronald Jones out registering five targets and 14 carries including five in the red zone on his way to 65 total yards and two scores. With Jones expected to miss another game, Fournette should continue to command the backfield touches in a great matchup against the Lions who have allowed an average of 117 rushing yards (29th) and 1.2 touchdowns (30th) per game to running backs this season
• Myles Gaskin / Salvin Ahmed (MIA) – Whichever back is announced as the starter walks into a great situation with the Dolphins as a small favorite against the Raiders who have struggled to stop the run all season. They have been especially bad lately allowing 138 rushing yards (30th) and 1.6 rushing touchdowns (32nd) per game to running backs over the last five weeks.
• Jeff Wilson (SF) – Wilson should get the bulk of the carries for the 49ers this week with Raheem Mostert out. He has tallied double-digit carries and scored in each of the last two weeks. The only concern is his limited use in the passing game if the 49ers fall behind.

WR

• DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) – Hopkins is on the list since he is the only high-priced stud option on the slate. However, I have no problem fading him in a fairly tough matchup in a game the Cardinals might be leading throughout.
• Brandon Aiyuk (SF) – Aiyuk has at least five catches in six straight games and has a beatable matchup against the Cardinals in a game the 49ers may be trailing. However, he does have a few moving parts around him with C.J. Beathard starting at quarterback and the potential return of George Kittle to the lineup. Watch the Kittle news in particular.
• Mike Evans (TB) – Evans offers a solid floor and some upside in a favorable matchup against a Lions secondary that has allowed a 100-yard receiver in four of their last five games and has allowed a total of seven touchdowns to wide receivers during that stretch.
• DeVante Parker (MIA) – Watch the injury report for Parker and the rest of the Dolphins pass-catchers leading up to kickoff on Saturday night. He could be a good late swap option if the news regarding his availability isn’t known before the early games start. The Raiders have allowed 1.6 TDs (30th) per game to WRs over the last five weeks.
• Danny Amendola (DET) – Through the slot is the best way to attack the Bucs pass defense which puts the cheap Amendola in play. Plus, Stafford and the Lions might be forced to pass often if the Bucs jump out to an early lead.
• Hunter Renfrow (LV) – Renfrow left the last game with a concussion, so monitor his status for Saturday before plugging him in. If he is cleared to play, then 6-10 targets should be coming his way working out of the slot while the outside WRs contend with the Dolphins strong corners.

TE

• Darren Waller (LV) – Waller was heavily targeted by Mariota last week and has had double-digit looks in three straight games.
• George Kittle (SF) – If he suites up and is expected to play at least half of the offensive snaps then he becomes a value and someone to consider in GPPs and maybe even Cash lineups.
• TJ Hockenson (DET) – Before last week, Hockenson had at least seven targets in the previous four games. The Bucs have been vulnerable to the TE position allowing 8.0 receptions (32nd) for 69 yards (28th) and 0.5 TDs (20th) per game over the last five weeks.

DST

• Dolphins (MIA)
• Cardinals (ARI)
• Lions (DET)

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