Entries by Brad Richter

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – October 29th

The high Vegas totals continue so I’m only going to list games that come in over 225 total points. Monday’s nine-game NBA slate has five games that reach that threshold including a huge 240-point total for the Lakers/Wolves game. There is also plenty of value with Giannis Antetokoumpo, Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard already ruled out.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.0.

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Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for October 29:

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October 29 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – October 29

Monday features a nine-game slate of NBA action where you will need to monitor injury news leading up to tip-off very closely. Both Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo are questionable to play which could tilt the slate depending on their availability. If Antetokounmpo misses the game then give Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon and Ersan Ilyasova additional consideration. If Davis doesn’t suit up then Nikola Mirotic and Jrue Holiday become very strong plays.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for October 29th

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October 29 by

DailyOverlay Grading Process

DailyOverlay Grading Process Below is the process that we use to record, grade and score DFS experts across all sports. Collecting Picks We collect all of the expert’s picks from the various sites via a manual process. Prior to each sports season, we accumulate a list of at least 15 different experts/sites that we will […]

October 29 by

NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 8

There are only 5 Consensus Best Bets for Week 8 of the NFL season but they all come highly recommended by the list of handicappers that we follow.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 15 expert sites and 46 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they at least four more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

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Free Play of the Week: Cardinals +1.5

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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 8…

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October 28 by

NFL – DFS Weighted Consensus – Week 8

Week 8 of the NFL season brings as a strong set of 10 games on the Sunday Main Slate. There should be plenty of offense, as usual, this season but it is a defense that is the most recommended play amongst all of the DFS experts picks for the week. The rest of the positions are much more open to interpretation as even some of the options that slip into our GPP buckets are probably Cash game viable.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that were recommended by at least two experts.

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Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 8…

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October 27 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – October 26

We have a smaller than normal seven-game NBA slate on Friday night this week. The slate may be small, but the options are plentiful due to injuries and the usual plethora of high-scoring games expected. The Hot Sheet matrix is starting to take shape with about 4-5 games in the books for most NBA teams and there are some early trends that I’m looking to capitalize on.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for Friday, October 26th

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October 26 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 8

Week 8 in the NFL brings us a strong 10-game Sunday main slate that includes teams such as the Rams, Chiefs, Packers, Bengals and Bucs. There are also some revenge narratives in the Thursday night tilt between the Dolphins and Texans (take the Texans minus the points) and a marquee Sunday night showdown in a rematch of last year’s epic NFC Championship game between the Saints and Vikings. It could be a crazy Week 8!

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D Vegas
Miami Dolphins 45 34 30 69 49 50 49 45
Houston Texans 54 52 49 38 54 46 73 -7.5

The Dolphins are coming off a home loss to the Lions and will travel to Houston to face the Texans on a short week. Brock Osweiler will remain under center for the Dolphins with Ryan Tannehill out to face a Texans pass defense that floats around the middle of the pack in most defensive categories including a 14th DVOA ranking. The Texans are vulnerable to pass-catching back around the goal line which could lead to a score for Kenyan Drake. With their banged up WR corps it could be TEs Mike Gesicki and Nick O’Leary who sees an increase in looks against the Texans 31st DVOA ranked defense against TEs this season. The Texans have been stout against the run this year with the top-ranked DVOA run defense that has allowed just 3.34 YPC (2nd) and 0.1 rushing TDs (2nd) per game to opposing RBs. Looks like an avoid spot for the Dolphins.

The Texans won their fourth straight game last week with a victory over the Jaguars and will come home on a short week to battle the Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed plenty of big plays to the passing game this season as they have allowed 8.28 yards per attempt (29th) while giving up 15.2 yards per reception (31st) too opposing WRs. With Keke Coutee out, Will Fuller will benefit with some deep ball shots along with the steady play of DeAndre Hopkins. Lamar Miller is in a revenge game spot and is coming off his best game of the season with 100 rushing yards and a score. He’ll face a Dolphins run defense that was just gashed by the Lions last week and has allowed 4.96 YPC (28th) over the last five week to opposing RBs. The Texans defense should also perform against Osweiler on the road as they have 3.2 sacks (7th) and 2.0 turnovers (5th) per game over the last five weeks.

Hot Picks:

  • Deshaun Watson (*)
  • DeAndre Hopkins (*)
  • Will Fuller (**)
  • Lamar Miller (**)
  • Texans D/ST (*)
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October 25 by

PGA – 2018 WGC HSBC Champions – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the WGC HSBC Champions:

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October 24 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – October 24

There is a sizable 11-game slate in the Association on Wednesday night. There are also plenty of early-season injuries and suspensions that are opening up some value on the slate. Surprisingly, SG is the position where I want to play about five guys on this slate, which is potentially an option on DraftKings but it will require some tough choices on FanDuel where you can only play two.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for October 24th

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October 24 by

NFL – Expert Grading and Recap – Week 7

Week 7 has come and gone and Rotoballer led the way with the top recommendations for the week. They were followed closely by FantasyTeamAdvice and DailyFantasyCafe. The Overall Leaderboard has the same list of five experts holding down their same positioning with FantasyTeamAdvice in the lead. On to the Week 7 grades, class is in […]

October 23 by

NFL – Handicapper Results and Recap – Week 7

Our NFL Handicapping Consensus picks had a very good week with a 5-2 record. Meanwhile, the top handicappers of the week included Blackjack Fletcher (ActionNetwork), The Wise Guy (CappersPicks) and PJ Walsh (ActionNetwork). On the season Mike Tierney (Sportsline) remains the highest unit winner with Teddy Covers (Covers) bringing in the highest winning percentage. Let’s […]

October 23 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – October 22nd

Monday brings us a nine-game slate of NBA action and there should be plenty of points and fantasy production with seven of the game coming in with a Vegas total over 220 points. There are also five games with a favorite of eight or more points. The Weighted Consensus list has a nice mix of value options to go along with higher-priced studs.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.0.

As a reminder, most of our NBA content will be part of our premium membership. Now is a great time to sign up for our premium content so you are all set for the NBA season.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for October 22:

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October 22 by