By my count, this will be my 108th “On the Hill” article this season. It will also be my last one for the 2018 season as we are shifting all of our focus over to football starting next week. It has been a fun season but does become a grind at times. I have had […]
The 2018 NFL Season about ready to kickoff which means the beginning of another season of my NFL Hot Sheet. This year in addition to the Hot Sheet matrix, analysis and DFS picks, I will be adding my Top Bets for the week against the “Vegas” spread as part of a new Betting Consensus that we will be bringing you at DailyOverlay for the NFL season.
As a refresher for the Hot Sheet, I will analyze each game and provide a write-up of how I expect each game to play out based on game script using the ratings I have compiled for each position. The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks (Note that the first few weeks will still rely on last season’s stats):
All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in bold are “hot” indicating a good matchup. I will list some “Hot Picks” for each game rated from one to three stars and at the bottom of the article give my Top DFS Plays for the week.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | K | Vegas |
| Atlanta Falcons | 45 | 41 | 39 | 29 | 60 | 43 | 37 | 42 | 45 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 58 | 53 | 65 | 65 | 45 | 58 | 50 | 58 | -2 |
The Falcons travel to Philadelphia to face the Super Bowl champs to kick off the season on Thursday night. Both teams played at a slower pace than most teams which could limit possession and total plays in the game. The Falcons passing game, which will once again be led by QB Matt Ryan, will have a tough test on the road against a stingy Eagles pass defense which allowed the 4th lowest Yards per Attempt last season. Look for the RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to be active in the passing game as the Eagles were most vulnerable to pass-catching RBs in the red zone, while the Falcons performed well in this area. Julio Jones will get his share of looks from Ryan but secondary options like Mohammad Sanu actually has a better individual matchup. The running game will have a hard time getting it going on the road against the Eagles rush defense that ranked in the Top 3 in most statistical categories including the #2 DVOA ranking against the run.
The Eagles will begin the season like they finished last year’s Super Bowl run with Nick Foles at QB. Foles and the passing game should have a fair amount of success moving the ball through the air. The targets will be spread out with TE Zach Ertz being the most involved against a middle of the road Falcons defense defending the position. The Falcons also had DVOA rankings of 25th against both #1 and #2 WRs last season which will open up some look for Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace with Alshon Jeffrey ruled out. Corey Clement will also be involved in the passing game out of the backfield as the Falcons ranked 28th in receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs last season. The Eagles running game might have a little tougher time as the Falcons ranked 6th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in TDs allowed to opposing RBs last year. Foles could get some hidden fantasy production on the ground.
Hot Picks:
Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.
To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.
Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.
Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the BMW Championship:
Wednesday is the last night before the NFL season kicks off which means it is the last time that MLB DFS takes center stage until next Spring. We have solid 12-game slate on tap but finding pitchers that you want to roster is a tall task. I found two that I have some level of confidence in but after that, I might be better off putting the rest of the names in a hat and picking one at random. Let’s make it a good night of MLB DFS before the NFL takes over our lives.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
The pitching list from the DFS MLB experts is straight and to the point with only five pitchers on the list for Tuesday’s big 15-game slate. However, on the hitting side, the experts couldn’t seem to agree to much as there are only three stacks on the list. So, it might be a night to deploy a few mini-stacks or just ride with a team stack that jumps out to you as ownership could be spread out.
The Weighted Consensus for the MLB is where we publish an in-depth version of rankings every day that considers each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for hitters and pitchers is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 8.0.
The MLB Weighted Consensus article will be part of the premium content, so sign up now for a FREE 7-day trial so you don’t miss any of the content here at DailyOverlay.
Scroll to the bottom of the article for the “Top Stacks” section that lists out the teams with the most hitters being recommended by the experts today. Also, be sure to check each team’s lineup when it is released and watch the weather before finalizing your lineups.
Let’s play ball!
Tuesday features a full 15-game MLB slate, but a lot of my attention seems to be focused in on the NL West teams. Of course, when there is a game at Coors Field that will draw attention, but it is not just that game that piques my interest when it comes to stack and even a pitcher out West. Heck, I might even need to play the night slate tonight.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
With the College Football season underway and the NFL season just about ready to kickoff, our MLB coverage will subside after this week. I’ll look to make one last push up the leaderboard, starting with the five-game night slate on Labor Day. With a small slate, I only have two stacks to recommend, one that […]
With the NFL season about to get underway, we will be grading MLB DFS experts for just one more week. Heading into the final week there are still a few spots that could change hands in the Top 3 spots on the Pitchers and Hitters leaderboards. It’s the last chance for the experts to make […]
Today is the last day of the August and the start of Labor Day weekend. As usual, the Summer has just flown by as we start into Fall, my favorite season of the year, with football starting up and cool, breezy days. Friday’s MLB slate features a full 15-game cornucopia of action to dissect and as we try to squash the competition. Any of these puns working? Hello? Tonight’s slate might lead us to pay up at pitcher (maybe even both spots) on DraftKings with a plentiful bounty of value hitters to consider. So, enjoy the long Labor Day weekend as you prepare for the football season with some MLB DFS.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
On Thursday night’s eight-game slate, there is one pitcher that looks to garner a ton of ownership with 16 out of 17 experts recommending him. The hitting side isn’t so obvious with seven different stacking options including five with just three players each. It could be an interesting night in MLB DFS.
The Weighted Consensus for the MLB is where we publish an in-depth version of rankings every day that considers each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for hitters and pitchers is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 8.0.
The MLB Weighted Consensus article will be part of the premium content, so sign up now for a FREE 7-day trial so you don’t miss any of the content here at DailyOverlay.
Scroll to the bottom of the article for the “Top Stacks” section that lists out the teams with the most hitters being recommended by the experts today. Also, be sure to check each team’s lineup when it is released and watch the weather before finalizing your lineups.
Let’s play ball!
Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.
To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.
Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.
Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the Dell Technologies Championship:
Thursday provides a solid eight-game night slate of MLB DFS. It is becoming harder and harder to focus on MLB DFS with the final NFL preseason games tonight with just one week before the regular season kicks off. That said, I have still run the numbers and done the research to provide three pitchers and three stacks to consider for tonight’s action. Enjoy!
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…