Entries by Brad Richter

MLB – Industry Expert Consensus – August 20th

With a big 15-game slate of MLB games on Tuesday night the Consensus Rankings have a ton of players on the list. This includes seven stacks with at least five players and 11 stacks in total. The pitching options are a little more scarce with just a six-pack of options on the bump including a value option at the top of the list.

The Weighted Consensus for the MLB is where we publish an in-depth version of rankings every day that considers each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.  To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for hitters and pitchers is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 8.0.

The MLB Weighted Consensus article will be part of the premium content, so sign up now for a FREE 7-day trial so you don’t miss any of the content here at DailyOverlay.

Scroll to the bottom of the article for the “Top Stacks” section that lists out the teams with the most hitters being recommended by the experts today. Also, be sure to check each team’s lineup when it is released and watch the weather before finalizing your lineups.

Let’s play ball!

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MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, Aug. 20

Welp, I hope you didn’t play Brendan McKay….

I sure as hell did, and it’s a reminder that I am so ready for football season…

Anyway, good luck on today’s large slate. It’s a full one!

Below are the tables for xFIP for today’s probable starters and wOBA tables for all qualified hitters versus the handedness of their opposing starting pitcher.

There’s a pitcher or two that hasn’t been named as of this publication.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Joseph Palumbo – 9.81
2. Sean Reid-Foley – 7.17
3. Reynaldo Lopez – 6.21
4. Eliser Hernandez – 6.04
5. Tyler Beede – 5.67
6. Cal Quantrill – 5.48
7. Spencer Turnbull – 5.38
8. Alex Young – 5.34
9. Michael Wacha – 5.22
10. Marco Gonzales – 5.22
11. Brian Johnson – 5.13
12. Brad Keller – 5.03

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Brian Johnson – 6.50
2. Aaron Sanchez – 5.59
3. Joseph Palumbo – 5.40
4. Kyle Freeland – 5.39
5. Sean Reid-Foley – 5.36
6. Alex Young – 5.03
7. Michael Wacha – 4.92
8. Marco Gonzales – 4.83
9. Homer Bailey – 4.83

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Mike Trout – Angels – .416
2. Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks – .414
3. Nolan Arenado – Rockies – .413
4. Carlos Santana – Indians – .412
5. Rhys Hoskins – Phillies – .411
6. Eduardo Escobar – Diamondbacks – .398
7. Ian Desmond – Rockies – .394
8. Tommy Pham – Rays – .394
9. Charlie Blackmon – Rockies – .390
10. Jean Segura – Phillies – .383

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Cody Bellinger – Dodgers – .433
2. Rafael Devers – Red Sox – .423
3. Freddie Freeman – Braves – .419
4. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates – .414
5. Juan Soto – Nationals – .411
6. Josh Bell – Pirates – .408
7. Anthony Rendon – Nationals – .405
8. Michael Brantley – Astros – .404
9. Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox – .402
10. Anthony Rizzo – Cubs – .401

PITCHERS

Dylan Bundy – vs. Kansas City Royals – $6,800

Analysis: Soooo Dylan Bundy…he’s a cheap option to stack your lineups with big bats on FanDuel. The Royals are 21st in team wOBA and strike out 20% of the time to righties. Bundy is striking out right-handed bats at an elite rate, whiffing them at 11.00 K/9. He’s striking out lefties at a 7.70 K/9.

HITTERS

Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Philadelphia Phillies – $3,800

Analysis: There’s isn’t a better value vs. matchup on the board for me today than Rhys Hoskins. The lefty destroyer draws the worst lefty on the board in Brian Johnson. As a righty in Fenway, this is just a juicy matchup for Hoskins, who owns a .411 wOBA with a .275 ISO vs. southpaws. As for Johnson, he’s been awful against righties as usual, allowing a .474 wOBA with a 43% hard hit rate and a 2.57 HR/9.

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MLB – On the Hill – Monday (August 19)

Monday night’s nine-game MLB DFS slate is a great one to play GPPs. There aren’t any must-have high-priced aces to roster and there are a few strong value pitchers on the hill that could provide some good upside. Meanwhile, on the hitting side, I can see staying away from the obvious chalk stack (Astros) in GPPs as there are plenty of good options to consider.

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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…

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MLB – Value Index – Monday, Aug. 19

Happy Edwin Jackson Day everyone!

The Astros get to tee up on the worst pitcher in baseball and trying to figure out which Astros to build your team around on FanDuel will be quite the challenge. I want to play all of the big boys, but on FanDuel you can only stack four.

So that’s where I will be going today. The rest of the field will be filled up by some variation of the players listed in today’s Value Index, which by the way, will be ending after this week.

We have college football, NFL football and I have a second kiddo on the way and my wife has been having some issues in the past week or two, so my focus for a daily sport such as baseball just hasn’t been there consistently.

So I will try to get one of these out every day this week to end on a high note, and then start looking for college football content starting in a little over a week! So glad football is coming back soon.

Today we have 9 games to build our lineups around, and it’s clear who the top stacks will be today. Good luck!

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Chi Chi Gonzalez – 7.39
2. Joe Ross – 6.99
3. Zach Davies – 6.01
4. Eric Lauer – 5.78
5. Edwin Jackson – 5.77
6. Trevor Williams – 5.49
7. Dillon Peters – 5.24
8. Dakota Hudson – 5.22
9. Ivan Nova – 5.21
10. Marco Gonzales – 5.21

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Edwin Jackson – 5.89
2. John Means – 5.84
3. Zac Gallen – 5.67
4. Jorge Lopez – 4.89
5. Trevor Williams – 4.88
6. Kolby Allard – 4.85
7. Marco Gonzales – 4.83

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Mike Trout – Angels – .415
2. Hunter Pence – Rangers – .406
3. Eugenio Suarez – Reds – .396
4. Tommy Pham – Rays – .392
5. Danny Santana – Rangers – .380

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Christian Yelich – Brewers – .483
2. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates – .425
3. Josh Bell – Pirates – .414
4. Charlie Blackmon – Rockies – .399
5. George Springer – Astros – .395

PITCHERS

Brendan McKay – vs. Seattle Mariners – $7,500

Analysis: I am going to make this happen and work…at least that’s what I believe. McKay is the hybrid player who can pitch and hit. But they have been using him as a pitcher mostly. As a lefty, he draws one of the best matchups on the board, but we have to worry a bit if McKay can get to 5 or 6 innings without much trouble. The Mariners strike out a ton so McKay’s upside gets a bump, plus he has QS and W upside here. He strikes out righties at nearly a 12 K/9 clip and lefties nearly at an 8 K/9 clip. The Mariners are 20th in team wOBA against lefties.

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MLB – On the Hill – Friday (August 16)

Another full 15-game slate of MLB action on deck for Friday night. It feels like Opening Day all over again with all of the high-priced aces on the mound. I think you can potentially squeeze in two of them in Cash games on two-pitcher sites which is the first route I would try. I’ll also try to give you a couple of cheaper stacking options, so you can try to use an ace or two in GPPs.

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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…

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MLB – Industry Expert Consensus – August 15th

Get your MLB DFS lineups ready for an eight-game slate on Thursday night. There aren’t any high-price aces on the mounds but the experts around the industry are still locked in on a handful of pitchers to use. Meanwhile, there are six stacks to consider including four with at least five players.

The Weighted Consensus for the MLB is where we publish an in-depth version of rankings every day that considers each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.  To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for hitters and pitchers is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 8.0.

The MLB Weighted Consensus article will be part of the premium content, so sign up now for a FREE 7-day trial so you don’t miss any of the content here at DailyOverlay.

Scroll to the bottom of the article for the “Top Stacks” section that lists out the teams with the most hitters being recommended by the experts today. Also, be sure to check each team’s lineup when it is released and watch the weather before finalizing your lineups.

Let’s play ball!

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MLB – On the Hill – Thursday (August 15)

The MLB has eight games on the docket Thursday night. There are no high-priced aces on the slate so, we can still grab a top pitcher or two on the slate and fit in a bunch of bats, including a trio of strong stacking options.

Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.

Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…

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MLB – Value Index – Thursday, Aug. 15

 

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Reynaldo Lopez – 6.29
2. Drew Smyly – 6.19
3. Adam Plutko – 6.13
4. Julio Teheran – 5.89
5. Alex Young – 5.62
6. Jeff Samardzija – 5.57
7. Michael Wacha – 5.24
8. Pedro Payano – 5.20
9. Devin Smeltzer – 5.02
10. Mike Fiers – 4.85

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Pedro Payano – 6.32
2. Mike Fiers – 5.67
3. Aaron Sanchez – 5.57
4. Adam Plutko – 5.34
5. Andrew Heaney – 5.17
6. Michael Wacha – 4.85
7. Julio Teheran – 4.71

PITCHERS

Andrew Heaney – vs. Chicago White Sox – $6,400

Analysis: Heaney hasn’t pitched well since coming off the IL, nor are his season numbers consistently good. But this play is where I will go for two reasons – price and strikeouts. While Heaney has been prone to the long ball, he has elite strikeout numbers. Against LH bats, Heaney owns an 11.37 K/9 while owning a 10.22 K/9 against RH bats. The White Sox are middle of the pack in team wOBA vs. LH pitchers but strikeout 23% of the time. Heaney allows for you to load up on bats, wait until the last game, and gives you strikeout, QS and W upside on FanDuel.

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PGA – 2019 BMW Championship – Expert Consensus

This weekend 70 of the best golfers in the world compete in the BMW Championship as they try to move on to take the Tour Championship. With the field shrinking this will be the final week grading the PGA DFS analysts, so they have one final chance to make their move up the leaderboard.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that have a DailyOverlay Score of over 5.0.

Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the BMW Championship:

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MLB – On the Hill – Wednesday (August 14) – Main

I’m going to provide my recommendations for the six-game Wednesday night MLB DFS slate. My preferred pitching options came together quite easily on the small slate with a good option at the high, middle, and low end of the salary spectrum. All teams are worth at least some consideration to stack on a small slate but I’ll give you my favorite three options.

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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…

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