Entries by Brad Richter

NBA – Hot Sheet – Tuesday (Jan 2)

Coming off a fun four-game slate on Monday that included two overtime games, we have a five-game slate of NBA action for Tuesday night. We could be set up for some more close games with four of the five matchups featuring a favorite of five points or less. However, there are only two Vegas totals that exceed 206 points. Also, watch the pricing differences between site closely tonight as there seem to be big differences that shift priorities between some players depending on which site you are playing on. Note that my recommendations below are more focused on DraftKings but can be considered for other sites.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for January 2nd

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
January 2 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – January 1st

Only 13 experts were able to shake off celebrating the New Year to supply articles and picks for Monday’s small four-game NBA slate. There aren’t many high-prices studs but there are plenty of value options that the experts like.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.0.

As a reminder, most of our NBA content will be part of our premium membership. Now is a great time to sign up for our premium content at only $9.99 per month so you are all set for the NBA season.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for January 1:

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
January 1 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Monday (Jan 1)

Happy New Year! After a week hiatus from writing my NBA Hot Sheet column due to the holidays, I’m back at it to ring in the new year with Monday’s four-game NBA slate. Note that as the NFL dies down with the end of the regular season, I may try to put together an NBA […]

January 1 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 17

Week 17 of the NFL season is always an interesting week with the mix of teams in must-win situations to get into the playoffs and teams that have nothing to play for. It is also the week where those out-of-nowhere players make a name for themselves heading into the offseason.

This will be the last week for the NFL Weighted Consensus and the last opportunity for the DFS experts to move up the Overall Standings. Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content to get this article and all of the NBA content over the coming months. Thanks for a great NFL season and Happy New Year!

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have a Rank Score of at least 6.0.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 17…

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 30 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 17

Here we are, the final week of the NFL regular season, Week 17. It goes all too quickly. Many people do not like Week 17 but I think it is one of the most interesting weeks of the entire regular season because it requires a lot of understanding about who is still playing for something and a little bit of going with your gut on which players will step up with increase opportunity.

My write up this week will be an abbreviated view of each game that just includes which teams are playing for something and which players have been ruled out (or will be limited due to playoffs scenarios). I will also list my usual Hot Picks for each game and my overall Top Plays at the end of the article. Enjoy the final week of the NFL season and I’ll be back with Hot Sheet writeups for the playoffs.

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 30 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 16

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus Rankings for Week 16. I hope that everyone has a safe and happy holiday and utilizes these rankings to help pay for all of those presents.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 16…

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 23 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Friday (Dec 22)

Today’s NBA Hot Sheet will be my last one of 2017 as I will be busy visiting family for the holidays next week. It will also be FREE so consider it my Christmas present to all of you. Hopefully, I can finish off a very good week with some more fire for Friday night’s nine-game […]

December 22 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 16

With the upcoming holidays and the NFL season winding down this will be my last “full” NFL Hot Sheet writeup of the regular season. I’ll be back for an abbreviated version for Week 17 and then some Playoff Edition Hot Sheets in January.

Week 16 still has quite a few teams fighting for playoff spots so there shouldn’t be too many teams mailing it in (I’m looking at you Cincinnati). With a two-game appetizer on Saturday, the main course on Sunday and a two-game Christmas Day dessert there are plenty of opportunities to get your fill of NFL action during the holiday weekend. I hope you all have a very happy and safe holiday season and get a little monetary present under your DFS tree this year!

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Indianapolis Colts 26 39 20 16 26 48 22 37 41
Baltimore Ravens 53 60 47 58 63 56 74 67 -13.5

The Colts have dropped five straight games following their loss to the Broncos last week. They will likely have a hard time changing their recent results with a trip to Baltimore to face the Ravens on Saturday. The Ravens’ pass defense has allowed a lot of yardage in recent weeks giving up 292 passing yards (32nd) over the last five weeks but they remain stingy in the red zone allowing just 0.6 TD passes (1st) during that stretch and rank 2nd DVOA against the pass this season. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett and the Colts’ passing game ranks last in passing yards (149 per game) over the last five weeks. The best opportunity for success in the passing game will be through TE Jack Doyle as the Ravens rank 31st DVOA against opposing TEs and have allowed 5.8 receptions (30th) per game over the last five weeks. The Colts’ running game will be led by Frank Gore with a little Marlon Mack sprinkled in but both will have difficulty churning out yardage as the Ravens have allowed just 3.69 YPC (9th) over the last five weeks. Gore could have some success near the goal line if the Colts and mount any drives deep into Ravens territory as the Ravens have allowed 1.2 rushing TDs (28th) over the last five weeks.

The Ravens have won four of their last five games including a victory over the Browns last week. They will come home on Saturday for a matchup with the Colts. The Colts’ pass defense has struggled on the season ranking 30th DVOA and allowing 263 passing yards per game (28th) this season. However, they have performed much better recently allowing just 203 passing yards per game (7th) over the last five weeks. While Joe Flacco and the Ravens’ passing attack has been better the last few weeks they are still in the bottom half of the league in passing yards (17th) and TD passes (20th) over the last five weeks. The primary receiving option will be Mike Wallace with Jeremy Maclin likely out. Wallace had 10 targets last week and has a good individual matchup against the Colts’ secondary. Ben Watson could also have some success against the Colts’ 29th DVOA ranked defense against TEs while allowing big plays to the position with 16.3 YPC (30th) over the last five weeks. Alex Collins should flourish on the ground with a positive game script while facing the Colts’ run defense that has allowed 136 rushing yards (32nd) to opposing RBs over the last five weeks. Both the Ravens’ defense and kicker Justin Tucker are also strong plays with a favorable matchup and positive game script while playing at home.

Hot Picks:

  • Jack Doyle (*)
  • Mike Wallace (**)
  • Ben Watson (*)
  • Alex Collins (**)
  • Ravens defense (**)
  • Justin Tucker (*)
You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 22 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Thursday (Dec 21)

I’m not sure why Julius Randle was so popular on Wednesday night instead of Larry Nance. Luckily if you read my Hot Sheet yesterday you avoided the Randle debacle and were on Kyle Kuzma and Nance instead. Thursday night’s five-game NBA slate appears that it could be a tough one to navigate. Pretty much every […]

December 21 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – December 20th

After a day off from the NBA Weighted Consensus on Tuesday with a small three-game slate the NBA is back in full force on Wednesday night with 12-games and a ton of DFS options. Half of the games come in with a Vegas total over 210 but the Lakers/Rockets matchup is by far the highest total of the night. As a result, there are plenty of Rockets and Lakers on the Consensus list. Sign up for a free 7-day trial to see who the DFS experts recommend and get the projected ownership percentages.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.0.

As a reminder, most of our NBA content will be part of our premium membership. Now is a great time to sign up for our premium content at only $9.99 per month so you are all set for the NBA season, in addition to getting our fantastic NFL content.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for December 20:

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 20 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Wednesday (Dec 20)

Following a small three-game slate on Tuesday we have a full 12-game NBA slate on Wednesday. Despite the large slate of games my research surprisingly really seemed to zero in on a fairly narrow group of players to target. Of course, there are a few other players I like that didn’t make the list but it wasn’t too difficult to find the 10 I like the most based on current news. Of course, things could change if (or when) there is a late scratch but this should be a good starting point.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for December 20th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 20 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Monday (Dec 18)

Wow is there ever a lot of cheap value options on Monday’s 10-game NBA slate. With so many players ruled out already and the potential of even more value if other key players are forced to sit out, it is shaping up as an ultimate “Stars and Scrubs” lineup construction night. All of my recommendations in the Droppin’ Dimes section are focused around this style of lineup but if you want to be contrarian you could go with a balanced lineup that almost nobody will be using and include players like Kemba Walker, Donovan Mitchell and Al Horford to name a few. Anyway, onto tonight’s recommendations with a Stars and Scrubs approach.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for December 18th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 18 by