Entries by Brad Richter

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 15

Week 15 in the National Football League has arrived and the DFS experts are still going strong with their recommendations for Sunday’s main 11-game slate. While we don’t have an uber-chalk option like Giovani Bernard was last week, there are still some highly recommended targets to start your lineup builds. There are also a few marquee matchups that should supply a lot of fantasy production but you’ll have to be selective as many of the options come with a high price tag. Only three regular-season weeks of NFL DFS remain so be sure to get in on the action and I hope you find the right combination for a big payday!

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 15…

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December 16 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Friday (Dec 15)

There is a lot of numbers to crunch and information to consume leading up to Friday’s big 11-game NBA slate. Be sure to keep tabs on news throughout the day as there are a few players that are questionable heading into tonight’s matchups.

Note that we are contemplating trying to produce an “Injury Status Flowchart” or “What If” type of article to help guide DFS players through decisions on how to handle late-breaking news on player status each day. Give me a shout out in the Comments if this is a tool you would be interested in using. Something to watch for after the New Year.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for December 15th

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December 15 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 15

Week 15 is crunch time for NFL teams looking to make their push to the playoff or to get home field advantage and there are a few key games that should be very competitive and go a long way toward deciding team’s fate. This week also marks the first week with two Saturday games which cuts down on the Sunday main slate a little bit but give us a little two-game appetizer to get in some DFS action for the Saturday slate.

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Denver Broncos 47 45 49 60 61 47 53 50 -2.5
Indianapolis Colts 41 37 22 33 69 51 58 33 40.5

The Broncos finally got back in the win column last week with a shutout victory over the Jets. They will travel to Indy on a short week to face the Colts. The Colts have been shredded by opposing QBs over the course of the season ranking 30th DVOA while allowing 263 passing yards (29th) per game. However, they have been better recently allowing just 197 passing yards (2nd) over the last five weeks. The Broncos passing attack will have Trevor Siemian under center again but he has only managed 200 passing yards in each of the last two weeks. The positive for the Broncos passing game is that the targets are condensed with Demaryius Thomas consuming 12 out of 31 attempts last week. Emmanuel Sanders has been battling through injuries this season and on a short week, I have a hard time believing he will be healthy enough to be productive on the turf. The running game saw CJ Anderson take over the bulk of the carries last week but he was very unproductive with them (2.2 YPC) and we have seen the RB carries shift on a dime before so they are all too hard to trust even in a decent matchup.

The Colts will welcome the indoors this week as they return home after losing in overtime to the Bills in Snowmageddon last week. While the Broncos have allowed a lot of touchdown passes this season with an average of two per game (30th) their overall pass defense has still been solid allowing just 203 passing yards (2nd) per game. Jacoby Brissett will need to get a big play from TY Hilton in order to have a successful day making Hilton a decent GPP option but not much else. With Frank Gore piling up 36 carries in the snow on Sunday, the Colts may give a few extra carries to Marlon Mack on a short week. Mack has some big-play ability of his own but the Broncos have been stout against the run this season allowing just 3.37 YPC (3rd).

Hot Picks:

  • Demaryius Thomas (**)
  • TY Hilton (*)

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Chicago Bears 39 59 18 40 53 58 66 35 43.5
Detroit Lions 56 44 67 45 80 50 63 61 -5.5

The Bears are coming off a convincing win over the Bengals in Cincy last week to snap their five-game losing streak and will travel to Detroit to face the division-rival Lions on Saturday. The Bears strength plays right into the Lions weakness this week as the Lions run defense ranks 28th DVOA and has allowed 125 rushing yards (29th) and 1.4 TDs (31st) over the last five weeks. Jordan Howard and to a lesser extent, Tarik Cohen should have a good day on the ground. The passing game behind QB Mitch Trubisky will be another story as the Lions have been average against the pass (16th DVOA) but the Bears will continue to hide Trubisky and his 180 passing yards per game (32nd) for as long as they can on the road. The Bears defense could be an option on the Saturday slate as the Lions have allowed 2.6 sacks (21st) and two turnovers (27th) per game over the last five weeks.

After a win against the Bucs last week, the Lions are still in the playoff hunt in the NFC but will need to keep winning. As an exact opposite of the Bears, the Lions’ offense is at its best when Matthew Stafford drops back and takes to the air, ranking 3rd in passing yards and 6th in TD passes per game this season. The Bears’ pass defense is decent ranking in the middle of the pack in most categories. The Lions will primarily feed their WRs Marvin Jones and Golden Tate but I’d prefer Jones who has more TD upside. Also don’t be afraid to fire up Kenny Golladay in a GPP as he has big-play potential and could be in for a breakout game. The Lions’ running game can be ignored regardless of the status of Ameer Abdullah. Matt Prater is a strong kicking option at home against a Bears’ team that has allowed 2.4 field goal attempts (26th) per game over the last five weeks.

Hot Picks:

  • Jordan Howard (**)
  • Tarik Cohen (*)
  • Bears defense (*)
  • Matthew Stafford (*)
  • Marvin Jones (**)
  • Golden Tate (*)
  • Kenny Golladay (*)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Los Angeles Chargers 55 55 75 52 59 48 53 55 -1
Kansas City Chiefs 46 50 30 39 25 62 30 44 46

The Chargers continued their late-season push with their fourth straight win last week over the Redskins setting up a battle for first place in the AFC West against the Chiefs on Saturday night in KC. Philip Rivers has thrown for over 300 yards in three straight games and will face a Chiefs’ pass defense that ranks 21st DVOA and has allowed 259 passing yards per game (27th) this season. They have cut down on the TD passes over the last five weeks allowing just 0.8 (1st) per game. They have been especially stingy against TEs in the red zone allowing just two TDs to opposing TEs this season. This could limit Hunter Henry’s upside and funnel more of the passing offense to the WRs where Keenan Allen has been red-hot with four straight games over 100 yards with a total of four scores and has a good individual matchup working out of the slot. Melvin Gordon and the Chargers’ running game should have some success against the Chiefs’ 31st DVOA ranked run defense that has allowed 103 yards (26th) and 0.85 TDs (26th) to opposing RBs this season.

The Chiefs finally broke back into the win column last week against the Raiders after losing four straight games. They will have another key divisional matchup against the Chargers in a battle for first place. The Chiefs will need to hope that RB Kareem Hunt can continue to produce like he did last week (138 total yards and a score) as the Chargers are more vulnerable to the run this season ranking 26th DVOA (compared to 6th DVOA against the pass). As long as the Chiefs can work with the lead or stay close he should get enough carries to be productive as the Chargers have allowed 4.62 YPC (30th) to opposing RBs this season. Alex Smith and the passing game could have some problem, however, as the Chargers have allowed just 217 passing yards (3rd) and 1.1 TDs (5th) per game this season. Travis Kelce has the best matchup of all Chiefs pass catchers as the Chargers’ rank just 18th DVOA against TEs.

Hot Picks:

  • Philip Rivers (**)
  • Keenan Allen (***)
  • Melvin Gordon (*)
  • Kareem Hunt (*)
  • Travis Kelce (**)
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December 14 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Thursday (Dec 14)

Thursday night features a tame looking five-game NBA slate. It includes three games with teams favored by about double-digit points so beware of minutes getting cut short for players on the Cavs and Warriors. The Timberwolves are also big favorites but they don’t cut their player’s minutes, like, ever.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for December 14th

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December 14 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Wednesday (Dec 13)

Wednesday night’s nine-game NBA slate is going to be a fun one. There are so many different lineup construction styles you could deploy. Perhaps my favorite during my early research and lineup builds is going with a balanced lineup of mid-range salary players, even though there are plenty of intriguing high-priced studs on the slate. Of course, there are a bunch of questionable tags on marquee players yet again so monitor the daily news closely and adjust accordingly.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for December 13th

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December 13 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Tuesday (Dec 12)

The NBA injury reporting is a joke. Monday night’s debacle of late scratches, some of which were first reported after the game the player was slated to start in tipped off, is not just a bad look for DFS it is a huge black eye for the NBA, in my opinion.

The NBA is trying to get closer to fantasy and DFS since they realize that the popularity of the NBA is on the rise due to DFS. Yet, they have failed to implement a simple solution requiring teams and coaches to report starting lineups, inactives and produce a real injury report at least an hour before tipoff instead of relying on beat writers to try to cobble together information. To me, the solution isn’t for the DFS sites to implement across the board late swap for NBA or provide all their bigger games with late swap. It is up to the NBA to adapt to the DFS game that they are gaining the benefits from, otherwise, the benefits of increasing viewership from DFS players will go away. Okay, rant over.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

 

Hot Sheet for December 12th

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December 12 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Monday (Dec 11)

Monday night brings us a nice tidy six-game slate that includes a ton of high-priced stud options to choose from but not much value to allow us to pay up for more than one of them. Maybe that will change as we near tip-off. Note that lineup lock is an hour later than usual tonight at 8 PM (EST).

Also, be sure to pay close attention to the salaries on the various sites tonight. It feels like my FanDuel recommendation on the night differs greatly than my DraftKings recommendations due to some distinct salary differences between the sites. The selections below are more geared toward DraftKings pricing.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for December 11th

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December 11 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 14

Week 14 could give us the chalkiest player of the entire season with Giovani Bernard coming in as the most recommended player all season by the DFS NFL experts we track with 17 out of 19 selecting the inexpensive starting RB for the Bengals. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is over 90% owned in Cash games and over 60% in GPPs. There are a few other players that were recommended by a majority of experts so be sure to sign up for our Premium Content (FREE 7-day trial) to get all the industry expert’s top picks for Week 14.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 14…

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December 9 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Friday (Dec 8)

Another good night for the NBA Hot Sheet with a top 10% finish in double-ups and GPPs only using picks from the free Hot Sheet yesterday. Let’s try to keep it rolling on Friday night for an eight-game slate. There are a few value options that I like and of course, all the high-priced studs are intriguing but I continue to be most interested in some mid-priced options that I believe are underpriced. See who I like for Friday’s slate by signing up for our Premium Content.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for December 8th

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December 8 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 14

My game-by-game breakdown this week unveiled a ton of options that I like at WR, yet somehow there aren’t a lot of QBs that I like much. Not sure exactly how that worked out but if you don’t like any of the QBs that I recommend at the bottom of the article in my Top Plays then just follow one of the WR recommendations to his QB and you will hit a player that I’m at least somewhat interested in. The RB position also seems like a slam dunk with the top options along with a few value options. I think we can save some salary at TE this week but might have to pay up for a defense.

Anyway, that is all a long way of saying that I do like this slate quite a bit and feel that I have a pretty good read on it. Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
New Orleans Saints 50 69 45 62 34 44 35 65 52
Atlanta Falcons 51 59 46 49 50 48 39 59 0

The Saints continued to run all over teams with a victory over the Panthers last week. Next up is another key divisional matchup against the Falcons on Thursday night. Look for the Saints to continue to use the same recipe for success that has worked all season with the focus on the running game against the Falcons’ 31st DVOA ranked run defense. I do expect them to step up somewhat at home. With Mark Ingram a little bit hobbled Alvin Kamara could be in line for some additional touches plus if the game script forces the Saints to play catchup, Kamara should have success out of the backfield. Drew Brees faces a Falcons’ pass defense that has been solid allowing just 216 passing yards per game (6th) over the last five weeks. Other than Kamara, look for Ted Ginn to get more involved again this week with Michael Thomas drawing more attention from the Falcons’ secondary. Kicker Will Lutz moves from one dome to another for ideal kicking conditions as the Falcons have allowed 2.25 field goal attempts per game this season.

Following a disappointing loss to the Vikings at home last week the Falcons will welcome another strong team to Atlanta with a divisional matchup against the Saints. With the Saints key secondary players looking like they will play, the Falcons will need to emphasize their running game behind their own two-headed monster with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Freeman looked good in his return to the field racking up 74 yards on 12 carries last week. He and Coleman get a favorable matchup against the Saints’ run defense which ranks 27th DVOA this season and has allowed 4.26 YPC (23rd). Scoring in the red zone might be more difficult for Freeman but he is still a solid play. The Falcons’ passing game may be forced to send targets to secondary receivers such as WR Mohammad Sanu and TE Austin Hooper with Julio Jones drawing tough coverage. I could see this game being lower scoring than the Vegas total would indicate.

Hot Picks:

  • Alvin Kamara (***)
  • Ted Ginn (*)
  • Will Lutz (*)
  • Devonta Freeman (**)
  • Mohammad Sanu (*)
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December 7 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Thursday (Dec 7)

Just a small four-game slate for Thursday night. On small slates, I want to try to identify the top player on each team giving their salary and matchup. Then attempt to roster as many of those players as possible to spread out my risk while giving me a lot of upside. The only team on […]

December 7 by