Entries by Brad Richter

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – December 6th

Wednesday night in the Association features a strong 10-game slate where half of the games reach our 210 Vegas point total threshold. There are plenty of stars who won’t play tonight which opens up some good value options in both the low and mid salary range. See who the DFS experts are squawking about for Wednesday’s slate.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.0.

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Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for December 6:

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December 6 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Wednesday (Dec 6)

After a day off here at DailyOverlay on Tuesday with only three games on the slate, we are back on Wednesday with a nice 10-game slate of NBA action. This is looking like a great slate with so many quality options to choose from including numerous high-priced studs who all seem to be in pretty good spots for success. I also like a couple game stacks for GPPs. I don’t often stack up games in teh NBA but I think there are two potentially good options on Wednesday with the Hawks/Magic and Nuggets/Pelicans. See which one I like the most with half of my recommended players coming from one of those games. Sign up for our Premium Content (7-day free trial) to get this article and all the other great content for the NBA, NFL and PGA.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for December 6th

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December 6 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Monday (Dec 4)

Monday tips off the week with a big 11-game slate of NBA action. Of course with a big slate of games, there are many directions to go, especially as injuries have taken numerous big names off the slate including Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway. It’s a good day for the mid-range value so you can probably fit in a couple high-priced studs.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for December 4th

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December 4 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 13

Lucky Week 13 is upon us and we have a full slate with no more bye weeks or Thanksgiving Day extravaganzas. The full slate seems to have the DFS experts we grade somewhat divided on who the best plays are at each position this week. While there are of course some players that have bubbled to the top the rank scores and projected ownership percentages are fairly flat. Enough of me babbling let’s get to the good stuff with the NFL Weighted Consensus Rankings for Week 13.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 13…

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December 2 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 13

After some abbreviated NFL Hot Sheet articles over the Thanksgiving holiday, I’m back with a full write up for lucky Week 13 of the NFL season. This week there are a ton of WRs that I like but the options at RB seem a little thin. There are also some games that I feel I have a good read on this week along with a couple “gut calls” that could be game changers if they pan out.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Washington Redskins 63 61 70 70 50 58 56 44 -1.5
Dallas Cowboys 47 59 30 50 30 55 52 57 46

The Redskins will play on Thursday night for the second straight week after defeating the Giants on Thanksgiving last week. The Redskins should have plenty of success moving the ball against the Cowboys’ defense which ranks 26th DVOA against the pass and 28th DVOA against the run. Kirk Cousins ranks near the top of the league in passing yards and touchdowns and should carve up the Cowboys’ secondary which ranks 27th in yards allowed and 26th TD passes allowed this season. Jamison Crowder will continue to be Cousins’ primary target as he has averaged 10.5 targets per game over the last four games. Josh Doctson will also get some looks, especially in the red zone. The matchup is also right for Vernon Davis to have a bounce-back game but I still have concerns that he was left in to block so frequently last week. Samaje Perine has produced back-to-back 100 yard games and gets a favorable matchup against a Cowboys’ defense that will be without LB Sean Lee and has allowed 4.44 YPC (28th) this season).

The Cowboys have looked terrible the last three weeks failing to score double-digits in any of the three losses. However, those losses where to three good teams (Falcons, Eagles, Chargers) and I expect the Cowboys to step up in a divisional matchup at home with the back up against the wall. The Redskins have struggled to stop the run over the last five weeks allowing 118 yards (28th) and 0.8 rushing TDs (25th) per game on 4.72 YPC (28th). Alfred Morris and Rod Smith had an even split of carries on Thanksgiving with Smith getting the goal line score. The split backfield makes it difficult to recommend either player but I’ll give the edge to Morris facing his former team. Dak Prescott will need convert via the air on third downs to keep drives moving in a ball control offense and with Dez Bryant locked up with Josh Norman, look for WR Cole Beasley and TE Jason Witten to be his primary targets to move the chains.

Hot Picks:

  • Kirk Cousins (**)
  • Jamison Crowder (**)
  • Josh Doctson (*)
  • Samaje Perine (**)
  • Alfred Morris (*)
  • Cole Beasley (*)
  • Jason Witten (*)
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November 30 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Thursday (Nov 30)

I had a hard time getting a good read on Thursday’s five-game slate. Maybe things will crystallize as the day progresses, but after much consternation, I think it is a better night for building GPP lineups and taking more of a “Studs and Duds” approach to lineup construction. Since it feels like most of the players with mid-range salaries are slightly overpriced or just don’t have the matchup that I want to roster them at their current price. So today’s “Droppin’ Dimes” recommendations take on a GPP feel.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 30th

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November 30 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Wednesday (Nov 29)

The big 10-game Wednesday slate might be a tough nut to crack with very few value plays that I actually want to roster. It may force me into a more balanced lineup even though I would love to pay up for a high-priced stud or two. Of course, some more value could surface if any of the players who are questionable such as Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Victor Oladipo or Ben Simmons end up sitting out.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 29th

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November 29 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – November 28th

We have a small five-game NBA slate on Tuesday with only two games over the 210 Vegas point total topping out at 213. Plenty of solid value options near the top of the Consensus Rankings to choose from and which high-priced stud forward do the experts like better, Giannis Antetokounmpo or LeBron James. Find out […]

November 28 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Tuesday (Nov 28)

We have a tight five-game slate of NBA action for Tuesday night that is without all of the injury drama that the Monday night slate possessed. The biggest decision of the slate will likely be which of the two high-priced options on the slate you go with, unless you can find a way to squeeze in both, which could be possible with all of the potential PG value on the slate.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 28th

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November 28 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Monday (Nov 27)

It is difficult to determine which players to recommend for Monday’s eight-game NBA slate since there are so many injuries that need to be monitored leading up to tip-off including a trio of Warriors (Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green), Victor Oladipo and Ben Simmons. The late-breaking news on which of these players play or sit will largely determine where you will want to go with your lineup construction.

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The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 27th

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November 27 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 12

Well, after a big NFL appetizer on Thanksgiving Day, we now have a full weekend slate of NFL action with all of the bye weeks a thing of the past. There are plenty of leftovers to pick over on the Week 12 Sunday slate including a chalky QB and pair of RBs but the WR and TE positions appear to be wide open. See who the DFS Industry Experts like the most in this week’s Weighted Consensus Rankings.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 12…

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November 25 by