Entries by Brad Richter

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 12

I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving holiday. Mine was typical, ate too much, watched every minute of the football games despite how boring they were and visited with family. The holiday definitely takes you out of your normal routine which is why this week’s NFL Hot Sheet will not include the game-by-game breakdown that it usually does. Instead you will get the Hot Sheet matrix along with my top plays at each position along with a few GPP options.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and picks…

Week 12 Hot Sheet

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 25 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Friday (Nov 24)

Whether you are just waking up from a turkey hangover or you are waiting in line for a Black Friday sale consider putting in a lineup or two or 10 for Friday night’s nine-game NBA slate. It is a fun looking slate where you will want to get some exposure to the Pelicans/Suns game which […]

November 24 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Wednesday (Nov 22)

Happy Thanksgiving Eve! That’s a thing, right? Anyway, the NBA is celebrating with a massive 14-game slate of action before everyone gets the day off on Thanksgiving. With a huge slate, of course, there are a billion and one different ways to go with your player selection and lineup construction. Look for ownership percentages to be fairly flat so just get your favorite players that you think will score the most points, even in GPPs. Of course, you wouldn’t be reading this column if you weren’t looking for some guidance, so below you will see the Hot Sheet for today along with Droppin’ Dimes picks of the night. Enjoy and have a great Thanksgiving holiday!

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 22nd

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 22 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 12 (Thanksgiving Edition)

Happy Thanksgiving! Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. I have a lot to be thankful for and what’s better than a day dedicated to sitting around all day eating some good food, hanging out with your family or friends and watching football. I will have two abbreviated Hot Sheet articles for Week 12 […]

November 22 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Monday (Nov 20)

There is a big 11-game NBA slate to tip off the week on Monday night. While there are plenty of high-priced studs on the slate, I find myself gravitating to a more balanced lineup construction. As such, at the moment, I am fading the high-priced stud level including Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, DeMarcus Cousins, Russell Westbrook, Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis. Of course, things can change if some extreme value options open up. Note that of group of high-priced studs, LeBron James is the one I’m grabbing if possible.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 20th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 20 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 11

After last week’s disaster for the chalk plays, the DFS experts will look to bounce back in Week 11. It is a fun looking slate of games and the experts have the top plays to roster at each position, so sign up and enjoy!

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 11…

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 18 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – November 17th

With a big 11-game NBA slate on Friday night the DFS expert’s recommendations were fairly spread out expect for the 17 players on tonight’s Weighted Consensus list.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated expert’s picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.

As a reminder, most of our NBA content will be part of our premium membership. Now is a great time to sign up for our premium content at only $9.99 per month so you are all set for the NBA season, in addition to getting our fantastic NFL and PGA content.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for November 17:

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 17 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Friday (Nov 17)

Another big NBA slate on Friday with 11 games on tap. With a big slate there are always plenty of options to choose from but remember that when building lineups we want players with a solid floor and maybe more importantly, even in Cash, we want players with upside. My recommendations for the Friday slate attempt to bake in both a high floor and upside across a wide range of salaries. Haven’t signed up for our Premium Content yet? What are you waiting for? At just $9.99/month you get all of our content from the NBA, NFL and PGA. Maybe put it on your Christmas wish list or just treat yourself for all that you do.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 17th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 17 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 11

Week 10 was frustrating for many with a ton of the “obvious” plays failing to pan out. It seems a lot of the season has gone that way just to a lesser extent. Enough living in the past, we are onto Week 11 in the NFL which includes an interesting compilation of matchups. There is only one game with a double-digit favorite (Chiefs over Giants) and there are six games with Vegas totals of 45 or higher which is actually quite a few for the NFL this season.

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Tennessee Titans 32 43 36 52 41 30 30 50 44
Pittsburgh Steelers 56 48 56 77 52 46 54 55 -7

The Titans pulled out a late victory over the Bengals last week and now will have a short week as they travel to Pittsburgh. The Titans’ offense could have some struggles moving the ball and putting points on the board this week against a very solid Steelers’ defense that ranks 5th DVOA against the pass and 4th DVOA against the run. The best matchup in the passing game appears to be for WR Rishard Matthews and maybe WR Corey Davis as the Steelers’ have allowed 173 receiving yards (25th) to opposing WRs over the last five weeks. The Titans could have a little more success on the ground as the Steelers have allowed 4.41 YPC (25th) to opposing RBs this season, although that number dips to 3.01 YPC (3rd) over the last five weeks. With a split backfield and questionable production, it looks like the whole Titans’ offense should be passed by when building lineups.

The Steelers escaped Indianapolis with a narrow victory last week but will come home where they typically play better especially on the offensive side of the ball. The passing game led by QB Ben Roethlisberger should be able to move the ball on the Titans’ 24th DVOA ranked pass defense. They should be especially productive in the red zone where the Titans have allowed 1.89 TD passes (26th) per game this season. Look for WR Antonio Brown to make up for Sunday’s no-show while Juju Smith-Schuster should also get some looks on deep balls. Le’Veon Bell gets a great matchup in the passing game as well as the Titans have the 27th DVOA ranked defense against pass-catching RBs while allowing over nine receptions (27th) for 53 yards (29th) this season. While Bell will have success via the pass, his production on the ground could be limited against a solid Titans’ run defense that has allowed just 3.45 YPC (4th) and 0.33 rushing TDs (3rd) to opposing RBs.

Hot Picks:

  • Ben Roethlisberger (*)
  • Antonio Brown (**)
  • Juju Smith-Schuster (*)
  • Le’Veon Bell (*)
You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 16 by

PGA – 2017 RSM Classic – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up an FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the RSM Classic:

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 15 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Wednesday (Nov 15)

While Wednesday features a big 11-game slate of NBA action there is not a single game with a Vegas total over 220 and every game has a spread within five points except for one game (Bulls/Thunder). There are plenty of high-priced studs to choose from but one seems to have the best matchup according to my metrics. Sign up for our premium content or a free trial to find out who I like on tonight’s big slate.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid. To get a full rundown of the numbers behind the rating check out my first NBA Hot Sheet article of the season.

Hot Sheet for November 15th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 15 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Monday (Nov 13)

A nice big nine-games slate of NBA action on Monday. It could be a high-scoring night with five games coming with a Vegas total of 219 or higher. There are also a wide variety of high-priced studs to choose from, in addition to some cheap value options that should (Jazz) or could (Warriors) get extra minutes with key players out.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid. To get a full rundown of the numbers behind the rating check out my first NBA Hot Sheet article of the season.

Hot Sheet for November 13th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 13 by