Entries by Brad Richter

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 10

Week 10 feels like it is going to be a very chalky week according to the NFL DFS Industry Experts. It feels like the lineup just builds itself so, we could see a lot of lineup overlap in Cash games but that doesn’t mean you should venture off course just to be different. GPPs of course are another story.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 10…

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November 11 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Friday (Nov 10)

Another productive night for the Hot Sheet on Thursday including picking the right high-priced stud (James Harden). Friday has more games with eight on the slate (seven if you play the FanDuel main slate which dropped the Hawks/Pistons game) but not nearly the star power to pick from on the high end. It could be a night for a nice balanced lineup but there is one high-priced stud that I have my eye on.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 10th

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November 10 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 10

It is looking like a strange Week 10 in the NFL with every game either a close low scoring matchup or a high scoring blowout. Well, give me the players on the winning side of the high scoring blowouts for my DFS lineups. Also, it appears, maybe, possibly, I think, that Ezekiel Elliott will finally serve his suspension starting this week. I hope it sticks because I’m getting sick of rewriting my Cowboys’ outlook every week.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Seattle Seahawks 67 40 58 53 72 57 69 43 -6
Arizona Cardinals 46 43 62 71 34 42 37 31 40.5

The Seahawks are coming off a tough home loss to the Redskins which snapped their four-game winning streak. They will look to get back on their winning ways with a quick turnaround against the Cardinals on Thursday night in Arizona. Seattle continues to have no running game (outside of Russell Wilson who leads the team in rushing yards) and that trend will continue with Thomas Rawls expected to get the bulk of the carries this week against a Cardinals’ run defense that is allowing just 3.53 YPC (7th) this season. So, the Seahawks will have to move the ball through the air with Wilson feeding the ball to his WRs and TE. Doug Baldwin should avoid Patrick Peterson working out of the slot giving him a solid matchup to exploit. Meanwhile, Jimmy Graham could be targeted in the red zone but might not get much yardage. The Seahawks’ defense is a solid option as they rank in the top 8 in sacks and turnovers per game and will square off with Cardinals’ backup QB Drew Stanton.

Stanton picked up a win over the winless 49ers last week but it was RB Adrian Peterson who led the way with 39 touches for 167 total yards. Peterson and the Cardinals have a much more difficult matchup this week against a Seahawks’ run defense that has only allowed 2.88 YPC (3rd) over the last five weeks. Peterson will also not have a positive game script in his favor this week as the Cardinals will likely be playing from behind which should give Andre Ellington more snaps on passing downs. Stanton could have a hard time moving the ball against the Seahawks’ pass defense which ranks 6th DVOA this season as WR Larry Fitzgerald who saw nine targets last week is the only option to consider in the passing game.

Hot Picks:

  • Russell Wilson (**)
  • Doug Baldwin (**)
  • Jimmy Graham (*)
  • Seahawks defense (*)
  • Larry Fitzgerald (*)
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November 9 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Thursday (Nov 9)

Another five-game NBA slate for Thursday. I got to say I love these mid-range slate of games in the NBA between 5-9 it is the perfect combo of enough options to have diversity in lineups, yet not so many games that there is an overwhelming number of options to try to decipher. Tonight’s five-game slate […]

November 9 by

PGA – 2017 OHL Classic at Mayakoba – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba:

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November 9 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Wednesday (Nov 8)

Coming off a big 10-game slate on Tuesday night, we have a modest five-gamer in the Association on Wednesday. Despite the limited number of games, there is a nice set of matchups including the late-night hammer between the Timberwolves and Warriors with the highest Vegas total on the slate by a landslide.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 8th

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November 8 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – November 7th

It’s Tuesday which means a free NBA Weighted Expert Consensus Rankings! We have an abnormally large slate on Tuesday with 10 games on tap including a lot of high-priced studs to choose from including the top pick by the experts tonight, Giannis Antetokounmpo. There are also plenty of value options to choose from to round […]

November 7 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Tuesday (Nov 7)

A big 10-game slate of NBA action on Tuesday night. It feels like a night where you want to pay up for a stud or two if you can find enough solid value options. It is also a night to determine which Vegas lines you trust with four double-digit favorites (Nuggets, Raptors, Wizards and Thunder) and only three games with a Vegas total over 215 (Bucks/Cavs, Pelicans/Pacers and Nets/Nuggets).

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 7

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November 7 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 9

Week 9 has already been turned upside down with the season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson and the continued dodging of a suspension by Ezekiel Elliott. There are also six more teams on bye including offenses that we usually like to target (Patriots, Steelers and Chargers) and a defense that we usually try to pick on (Browns). It should be another wild week of NFL action, good thing we have the Industry Expert Weighted Consensus rankings to help sort it all out.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 9…

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November 4 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – November 3rd

Friday night features a big 12-game NBA slate that has a lot of potentially high scoring games with seven topping the 210 Vegas total threshold. Perhaps the most interesting game for DFS is the late game between the Nets and Lakers which has the highest Vegas total on the night and features both value options and some narrative with two teams that swapped players in the offseason. It should be a fun night of DFS hoops!

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 6.0.

As a reminder, most of our NBA content will be part of our premium membership. Now is a great time to sign up for our premium content at only $9.99 per month so you are all set for the NBA season, in addition to getting our fantastic NFL and PGA content.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for November 3:

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November 3 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – Friday (Nov 3)

Wow! We have a nice big 12-game NBA slate for Friday night and it is going to be a fun one to play. There are a million different ways you can go with your lineup construction with a ton of good plays from the high-priced studs down to the value options. I did manage to whittle my way down to just 10 selections for my “Droppin’ Dimes” list but there was at least five more that I really wanted to include. So, as a bonus here are a few plays that didn’t quite make the list but received strong consideration: DeMarcus Cousins, Devin Booker, Joel Embiid, Hassan Whiteside, Taurean Prince and Julius Randle. I could go on but I’ll stop there. Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content to get the rest of this article with my top 10 plays along with the rest of the great content here at DailyOverlay.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for November 3rd

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November 3 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 9

We roll into Week 9 of the NFL season with six more teams on bye and the season half over for many teams. There are some very favorable matchups this week but they seem to all be priced up leaving very few enticing value options to choose from. As a result, lineup construction could be quite challenging on the Sunday main 10-game slate on DraftKings but I did my best to include a few value options in my Top Plays for the week.

UPDATED: For Deshaun Watson (out) and Ezekiel Elliott (in) news.

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Buffalo Bills 53 55 60 57 38 56 62 58 -3
New York Jets 51 48 55 36 28 57 33 34 42.5

The Bills travel to New York to face the Jets on Thursday night to kick off the week after a convincing win over the Raiders last week. While the Bills don’t have any “red” marks on their hot sheet line this week it doesn’t mean they won’t be productive against a Jets’ defense that ranks 24th DVOA against the pass and 18th against the run. Tyrod Taylor gets a new weapon with the acquisition of WR Kelvin Benjamin at the trade deadline. While I expect Benjamin to get some snaps and targets he won’t get the volume needed after just joining the team two days ago. Taylor will spread around the targets so only Taylor is a possible option in the passing game. The focus for the Bills’ offense to continue to be on the running game behind LeSean McCoy again this week who has put up 242 rushing yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks against a Jets’ run defense that has allowed 101 rushing yards (23rd) to opposing RBs this season.

The Jets have lost three straight games but all were by seven points or less including games against last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Patriots and Falcons. The Bills’ run defense has been solid allowing the 4th fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs so they should be able to contain the Jets’ duo of Matt Forte and Bilal Powell on the ground. So, look for the Jets to take to the air to move the ball against the Bills’ pass defense that has been leaky lately allowing 317 passing yards (31st) per game over the last five weeks. Jets’ TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins will be the primary target but could struggle to score in the red zone against a Bills’ pass defense that has only allowed 0.9 touchdown passes per game (3rd) this season.

Hot Picks:

  • LeSean McCoy (*)
  • Austin Seferian-Jenkins (*)
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November 2 by