Entries by Brad Richter

NFL Hot Sheet – Week 5

Week 5 is a transition week for the NFL Hot Sheet as I shift focus solely to stats from this season now that we have four weeks in the books. This should be an interesting and exciting week of football with a ton of evenly matched teams squaring off. According to Vegas lines, there are 11 out of the 14 games with a line of 3.5 points or fewer which could generate a lot of close back-and-forth games which is good for fantasy production. Unfortunately, maybe the matchup with most fantasy potential is the Thursday night tilt between the Patriots and the Buccaneers, so be sure to get some exposure to it if you are playing the full week slate.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Top Play recommendations below will focus on DraftKings Sunday “main” slate that features 11 games excluding the Sunday night game.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
New England Patriots 72 50 70 69 89 55 34 57 -5.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 77 55 80 74 71 79 45 72 55

The Patriots travel to Tampa Bay for a Thursday night matchup that features the highest Vegas total of the entire week. The Patriots’ offense should flow through Tom Brady and the passing game against a Bucs’ defense that has allowed 319 passing yards (31st) and 2 TD passes (27th) per game this season. Meanwhile, Brady and company lead the NFL in passing yards and TD passes. The passing game should have the most success flowing through the WRs and RBs as the Bucs have been good against TEs so far this season allowing just five receptions for under 40 yards per game. James White should haul in another 5-6 catches this week and watch for Danny Amendola who has the best matchup for the Patriots’ WRs working out of the slot. The Patriots’ running game could have a hard time getting started against a Bucs’ run defense that ranks 3rd DVOA and has allowed just 2.72 YPC (2nd) to opposing RBs.

When the Bucs are on offense they will also focus on airing it out against a Patriots’ pass defense that ranks dead last in DVOA and passing yards allowed (335 per game). They also allow the highest pass distribution inside the 10 yard line (70%) which has led to 2.8 TD passes per game this season. All of this puts QB Jameis Winston in a great spot to exceed his season average of 288 yards and 2 TD passes. Winston should have plenty of time in the pocket to find his top WR Mike Evans who has almost a 30% target share and has a good matchup with the Patriots’ secondary ranking 29th DVOA against opposing #1 WRs. Cameron Brate has a good chance for a red zone TD with the Patriots’ allowing 3 TDs to opposing TEs this season while the Bucs have had 3 TD passes to TEs over the last two weeks. Doug Martin will return to be eased into the Bucs’ ground attack which will limit touches for all RBs in just an average matchup. Kicker Nick Folk could be busy getting 2-3 field goal attempts to go along with some extra points. If you play a slate that includes Thursday night, you better get some exposure to this game.

Hot Picks:

  • Tom Brady (***)
  • James White (*)
  • Danny Amendola (**)
  • Jameis Winston (***)
  • Mike Evans (**)
  • Cameron Brate (**)
  • Nick Folk (*)
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October 5 by

PGA – 2017 Safeway Open – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the Safeway Open:

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October 4 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 4

The Industry Experts will try to get back on track in Week 4 after an unpredictable Week 3. The Week 4 Weighted Expert Consensus Rankings are based on Draftkings 12-game Sunday slate that excludes the Sunday morning game in London and the Sunday night tilt in Seattle. It appears the experts are recommending saving some salary at QB this week with three of the top four coming in with a discount price. See who tops the list by signing up for our premium content.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 4…

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September 30 by

MLB – On the Hill – September 29

Welcome to the final “On the Hill” article for the 2017 season. To quote Jimmy Fallon “this is it, you made it!” This will be the 118th time, I have put pen to paper (or keyboard to PC) to write this column this season and whether you have been reading since the beginning or just […]

September 29 by

NFL Hot Sheet – Week 4

The Hot Sheet continues to get stronger as we the weeks go by and we get more data points to analyze. Last week my Top Plays featured six out of eight WRs recommended securing at least 75 yards and a touchdown including low owned options like Michael Thomas and Taylor Gabriel.

Week 4 features an interesting set of games that includes some of the best matchups for DFS occurring on alternate slates including the Thursday night game, another Sunday morning tilt in London, a Sunday night game that has been excluded from the main slate by Drafkings (what are they doing!) and a good Monday night matchup. This will be a week that I put more bankroll in play on the full slate than normal so I can get some exposure to those games. Be sure to read my individual write-ups of those games but I will focus my Top Play recommendations on the 12-game “main” slate on DraftKings since that is what we will base our Expert Consensus and grading on this week.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Chicago Bears 48 56 63 66 35 36 52 33 44.5
Green Bay Packers 60 52 77 52 47 58 60 62 -7

The Bears have a short week coming off an overtime win over the Steelers to travel “up north” to Green Bay to face Packers on Thursday night. Look for the Bears’ offense to focus on the running game and short passes to try to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hands. The running game which will feature both Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen should be able to have some success against the Packers’ rush defense that ranks 22nd allowing 4.28 YPC to opposing RBs while the Bears’ duo has the 3rd highest YPC (5.16) so far this season. In the passing game, Mike Glennon will continue to throw short dump offs to the RBs which should also be effective against a Packers’ defense that ranks 31st DVOA against pass catching RBs this season. The Bears’ WRs rate well but with so few targets going their way, I will avoid them.

The Packers offense has played at a fast pace so far this season averaging more plays than any team but could be forced to slow if the Bears can control the clock. The Packers may also resort to a more conservative game plan with their injuries to the offensive line which could limit Aaron Rodgers’ upside despite a solid matchup against the Bears’ 22nd DVOA ranked pass defense. When Rodgers does throw, I expect the biggest production out of Randall Cobb in the middle of the field. Martellus Bennett would be my favorite play in this game against one of his former teams but I have concerns that he will be kept in to block to help out the depleted offensive line. Ty Montgomery could be limited the passing game as the Bears rank 6th DVOA against opposing pass catchers out of the backfield, but he should have a decent game on the ground with a good chance for a rushing score against a Bears’ run defense that has allowed an average of one rushing TD per week. Mason Crosby could also have a good game as the Bears have allowed 2.67 field goal attempts per game this season. Look for the offensive production to be quite spread out in a lower scoring game than expected.

Hot Picks:

  • Jordan Howard (*)
  • Tarik Cohen (*)
  • Aaron Rodgers (*)
  • Randall Cobb (*)
  • Martellus Bennett (*)
  • Ty Montgomery (*)
  • Mason Crosby (*)
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September 28 by

MLB – On the Hill – September 27

The teams that needed to win yesterday did with the Rockies, Brewers and Cardinals all picking up victories. Unfortunately, the wins didn’t come with huge fantasy numbers for my stacks and pitchers. Wednesday night’s recommendation for the 11-game slate still has some teams/players that are fighting for the playoffs but also mixes in some players on teams where they are just trying to establish their roles for next season. Pitching could be a mess tonight.

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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…

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September 27 by

MLB – On the Hill – September 26

We have reached the final week of the MLB regular season. I think we can learn something from Week 3 of the NFL that we can apply when choosing players for MLB this week. In the NFL Week 3, we saw numerous teams with their “backs against the wall” as 0-2 teams come out with a lot of fight and pull off some wins in spots you didn’t expect. There are very few MLB teams that are still fighting for the playoffs including some teams with their “backs against the wall”. I expect them to come out fighting similar to the way the 0-2 teams in the NFL did this past weekend.

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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…

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September 26 by

NFL – DFS Industry Expert Consensus – Week 3

Last week was the week of the expensive QBs but this week is more balanced with a variety of high-priced studs and value options across all of the positions. It also appears to be a pretty chalky week with a few select players standing above the rest at most positions. Find out who by getting a FREE 7-day trial or signing up for our low monthly membership.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that receive a Rank Score of at least 6.0.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 3…

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September 23 by

MLB – On the Hill – September 22

The season may be winding down but my hitter stack recommendations have been coming alive this week with back-to-back strong performances. Let’s see if we can top off the week with another good day for Friday’s full 15-game slate. I also like where I landed for my pitcher recommendations for tonight’s slate. Let’s go get it!

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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…

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September 22 by

NFL Hot Sheet – Week 3

Now that we have two weeks in the books we can start to compare data points and identify trends that occurred in both weeks to make some preliminary conclusions on how teams and players will perform this season. We can also start to see play calling tendencies (run/pass ratios) to begin to modify the expectations we had coming into the season based on personnel changes and last year’s results.

At this point in the season, I do still include last year’s statistics as part of my model but will give the edge to the eye test if the overall numbers don’t back up what I am seeing watching the games or what my gut tells me will happen. Overall, my recommendations and prediction fared better last week than in Week 1 and I expect a positive trend to continue as we gather more data points for this season. So, let’s move onto Week 3 where there are some interesting options to consider.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Los Angeles Rams 44 50 27 70 59 31 54 47 39.5
San Francisco 49ers 35 56 20 52 27 45 55 39 -2.5

The Rams travel north to meet the 49ers in San Francisco on Thursday night after splitting their first two games at home. The offense behind Todd Gurley has been playing well and will again be the focus of the offense this week. While the 49ers appear to have made improvements to their run defense they still rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed to opposing RBs but have not allowed a rushing TD through the first two games. So, while Gurley should be able to gain some yardage, he may find it difficult to find the end zone on the ground. Jared Goff will lead a Rams’ passing attack that ranks 8th in passing yardage through the first two weeks but will face a stingy 49ers defense that ranks 5th in passing yards allowed. Goff will be limited in his yardage but could have success in the red zone hooking up with secondary receivers such as Cooper Kupp.

When the 49ers have the ball look for them to also focus on the ground game behind Carlos Hyde who is averaging 7.0 yards per carry through the first two games. Meanwhile, the Rams’ run defense has been lit up for 147.5 rushing yards per game (5.09 YPC) to opposing RBs this season and three rushing TDs. With the focus on the running game, Brian Hoyer and the passing game will have limited opportunities which will result in low fantasy output against a Rams’ defense that ranks 4th in passing yards allowed while allowing just one touchdown pass this season. The best chance for success for the 49ers passing game could be a deep ball to speedster Marquise Goodwin as the Rams have allowed 15.38 yards per catch against opposing WRs this season which ranks 28th.

Hot Picks:

  • Cooper Kupp (*)
  • Carlos Hyde (**)
  • Marquise Goodwin (*)
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September 21 by

PGA – 2017 TOUR Championship – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the TOUR Championship:

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September 21 by

MLB – Industry Expert Consensus – September 20th

Welcome to the free Wednesday night MLB Weighted Consensus Rankings for tonight’s 11-game slate. The experts don’t offer up much value on the pitching side tonight but with eight different teams to consider stacking there should be a nice mix of value hitters to fit in some more expensive pitchers. The Weighted Consensus for the […]

September 20 by