So I was going to move my baseball stacking article and turn it into an NFL version. I wrote all of this to start… Welcome into the first edition of the NFL version of The Stack. If you were a DFS baseball player and regular reader at DailyOverlay, you know about stacking. Well, stacking and […]
I almost bet many articles you read this week regarding the NFL opening week will have this phrase – “FOOTBALL IS BACK!” We all can’t help feel like a kid in a candy store or a kid on Christmas morning when the NFL season rolls around. Not only do our favorite teams get a clean […]
Welcome back to another edition of The Stack. Monday was a very not-so-hot day for this guy, but hey, it happens and that’s baseball. We are down to the next-to-last Stack of the 2018 baseball season, so let’s stop the chatter, get back to the grind and hopefully win some money! PITCHERS SP1 – Tyler […]
Well, well, well….
We’ve made it to the final week of baseball coverage here at DailyOverlay…and that means only one thing.
The NFL season is about to start.
Thursday night to be in fact, which is exciting in itself. Someone on DraftKings might win $1,000,000 (if they aren’t sharing the Showdown pot).
But we still have baseball, but there’s a new wrench in the bag for the remainder of the regular season – September call-ups.
Don’t be surprised to see some funky lineups moving forward, if you play baseball beyond this week that is (I don’t).
Narrowing down stacks for today’s split slates is kind of tough knowing that lineups could be a bit odd, especially the early games since teams traveled today and some play first thing Monday, which doesn’t happen often during the year.
But I’ve narrowed down my stacks for both the main early slate and the main evening slate.
There’s a few games in the middle of both that won’t be featured here, but you can get action on them in a few places.
My format the rest of the way is providing you stacks built around 2 starting pitchers I will use in my lineups. Basically, I am giving you my lineups for tomorrow. You can go down with the ship if you wish, or hopefully see some green with me.
The early slate for today will be free to view, but to see the full version, you will need to sign up for our 7-day free trial or put down a small investment for our services, monthly.
On a side note, look for TONS of College Football and NFL content moving forward. I don’t know how we are going to put it all out, but it’s going to be some awesome stuff.
But let’s focus on baseball for today…
EARLY SLATE
Pitchers
SP1 – Dallas Keuchel – $7,900
SP2 – Vince Velasquez – $7,000
GAME STACK – CHICAGO CUBS AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Cubs
Brewers
Analysis: Zach Davies falls into my dump list of pitchers I hate targeting bats against. For some reason, he’s one of those guys that has awful stats on paper, but against good teams, he seems to avoid the damage. I’ll still target against him with Murphy and Bryant today in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Against lefties, Davies is yielding a .365 wOBA against with a 40% hard hit rate allowed. Murph has been leading off for the Cubs of late and has really hit his stride. Bryant has returned to the lineup, making the Cubs much more dangerous. While Davies has been tougher on righties, Bryant is one power righty he hasn’t figured out. In his career against Davies, Bryant is 13-for-33 with 2 doubles, a triple, 2 home runs, 6 RBI, a walk and a steal. On the Milwaukee side, the red-hot Brewers draw a red-hot Cole Hamels (can’t believe I am saying that, but hey, pitching in the National League is his thing I guess). I am not jumping on the Christian Yelich heater today because I never get him right, even though he has great BvP against Hamels. Instead, I am taking two RH bats, including Jesus Aguilar, owns a 5-game hitting streak and is third on the team in wOBA against lefties at .377 with a .270 ISO. Cain has surged late in the season against southpaws and is back to his former self in that department. He is first on the team in wOBA against with a smoldering .453 and a .200 ISO. Cain is 3-for-11 with a double and a walk against Hamels, for what it’s worth.
DETROIT TIGERS
Analysis: This is a great spot for these two Tigers, even coming off a pounding of the Yankees Sunday afternoon and travel. The Tigers are up against Reynaldo Lopez, who has turned himself into quite the reverse-splits pitcher. It just so happens, Castellanos and McCann can hit right-handed pitching really well, and their BvP numbers speak for themselves. Lopez owns a .343 wOBA and 1.41 HR/9 rate against righties this season. McCann is 7-for-13 with a double, a triple and 2 RBI (and he’s a super cheap punt). Meanwhile, Castellanos has 7 hits in his last 4 games and sports a .444 average against Lopez with 4 doubles and 2 RBI to his name.
HOUSTON ASTROS
Analysis: Don’t target the Astros at home, don’t target the Astros at home, don’t target the Astros at home….ah dammit. Here we go again, the struggling Astros make the list. Their prices are too cheap to ignore and at any minute, this team could snap out of whatever funk it’s been in since the All-Star Break. I can’t help but believe that. Today they are up against Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson, who has been much-improved thi sseason. Springer is the price that pops out, nearing sub-$4K numbers for the first time since….never? He’s making lots of contact of late with 8 hits in his last 8 games. Correa is still trying to find his stride since coming off the disabled list, but maybe he’s found his stroke, with hits in each of his last two games and a walk. The walk and a 2-hit game are positive signs that maybe his struggles are ending, too. Correa has always been a reverse-splits bat, so I am banking on that and him busting out of his slump.
Switching gears back to baseball might make me want to bang my head against the wall soon…
Not really, but with football here and September call ups on the horizon, baseball DFS will be way off my radar very, very soon.
BUT there’s still games to be had and until the NFL season gets ramped up, we can still squeeze in the MLB for another day and one more week.
Tonight we have a full slate of action with 15 games, so let’s not waste any more time!
CHICAGO CUBS
Analysis: Today’s stacks feature a lot of 2-man options. This pairing is one of them. Murphy is leading off for the Cubs since being traded and Rizzo has found his power stroke in the second half. The Cubs are facing off against starter Nick Pivetta. While Murphy and Rizzo have had success lately, albeit very minimal, Pivetta will provide lots of upside to lefty bats, allowing a .354 wOBA and a 1.66 HR/9 rate this season.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Analysis: This 3-man almost didn’t happen, but BvP allowed us to verify this matchup. It doesn’t disappoint. All three guys destroy Cincy starting pitcher Homer Bailey. Combined they are 46-for-101 with 8 doubles, four home runs, 14 RBIs and 8 walks. Bailey gives up hits left and right to both left and right-handed batters. The current roster for the Cardinals is hitting .444 with 7 HRs and 26 RBIs in 135 ABs. The Cardinals continue to surge and have to face the most generous pitcher on the board.
I never thought this day would return. I never thought I would be writing another Power Five or ever being able to play college football DFS. But by golly, this mother f***** is baaaack! The last time we could play college football on DraftKings, Jake Browning and Myles Gaskins were freshmen, Kyler Murray was a […]
You know it’s a bad slate for pitching when Freddy Peralta is the highest-priced pitcher of a slate.
Not saying he’s not very capable and electric, it’s just not what I expect when I open up the salary page on DraftKings.
Dereck Rodriguez is the second highest-priced pitcher, and while I like what I’ve seen from him, again, why would I overpay for a pitcher whose is only priced according to the talent level of the slate? If there were 2-3 studs, Rodriguez probably comes in around $8K, not nearly $10K.
So with that said, that’s what we are dealing with on this 9-game evening slate.
Like I mentioned on Monday, I will be using a little different format for stacks until we end our baseball coverage.
And that change comes with picking two pitchers to build around and ideally, my stacks can be interchangeable without pricing hiccups.
Let’s see how it plays out for tonight’s slate, shall we?
So the two pitchers I am using for this segment are Miles Mikolas, who is at a reduced price facing a team that doesn’t have a lot of power or pop.
My SP2 is playing the game theory angle – Mike Minor.
I know he’s at home, playing in the heat, and is up against the Dodgers. However, Minor has been far superior at home than on the road, is super tough on lefties and tougher on righties than one would expect. He does give up the long ball once or twice a game, but he doesn’t walk a lot of batters, so he can limit the damage with the long balls. It’s a contrarian move and we will gain an edge on the field if correct because everyone will have the Dodgers.
But yes, I will be hedging because I do love Machado and Turner, the main threats in the Dodgers lineup.
So it’s Minor and Mikolas, so who are we stacking?
GAME STACK – MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND
Twins
Indians
Analysis: First off, keep an eye on the weather here. Secondly, I love me some Jose Ramirez, but he’s out of this stack because we are working within the parameters of the pitcher’s salary. He makes it too difficult to shuffle players around at his price. Anyway, both of these teams get a chance to wreck opposing starting pitchers. The Twins get Adam Plutko, who allows a .453 wOBA, 3.32 HR/9 and 40% hard contact to lefties. The top lefties in this lineup are the three above. You can play Mauer if you want, but he’s not my guy. All three of these guys have ISOs of .179 or better against right-handed pitching. On the opposite side, we have the Indians against rookie Kohl Stewart, who also has been terrible against lefties, giving up a .368 wOBA, 44% hard contact rate and 5.76 xFIP. Play Ramirez if you want, I get it. But I will stack these other lefties at cheaper rates. Lindor, Brantley and Alonso have ISOs of .256, .215 and .185 ISOs, respectively. I mean, I’ve talked about the Indians so much this season, I think you already know by now that I always love the four lefties and avoid E5. Today is no different.
Since we only have a couple of weeks of baseball left for DailyOverlay purposes, I am going to change up The Stack…but only a little bit.
From now until the end of our 2018 season, I will pick two pitchers to build stacks around. What that means is by using these two pitchers, you can almost always fit in any combination of the players featured below.
Tonight, you can ALMOST fit in any combination. Some of these stacks are quite pricey, so there may be a little tweaking needed to make it work.
So tonight’s pitchers I am pairing together will be Sam Gaviglio against the Orioles and Jon Lester against the Mets. It will cost you just $15,200 to pair these guys and you can load up on bats.
So, who are we pairing with them for offense? Let’s find out!
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Analysis: The Blue Jays are extremely expensive compared to their usual pricing. But they are facing possibly THE worst pitcher on the slate in David Hess. They also are an offense playing together well and are 11th in wOBA against RH pitching this season. Hess gives up gobs of offense to both sides of the plate, allowing a .359 wOBA to lefties and a .341 wOBA to righties. Kendrys Morlaes is going for his 8th straight game with a home run. He now has a lofty .383 wOBA and .250 ISO against RH pitching. He’s also 4-for-6 with a home run against Hess. Billy McKinney is a newbie with a hot streak going. He has a .511 wOBA against righties since being called up. Gurriel, Granderson and Grichuk all have ISOs of .196 or better.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Analysis: Righties who mash lefties and get to play in Yankee Stadium are the theme for this stack. All four of these guys are in the top-4 in wOBA for New York against southpaws. Leading the pack, of course, is Stanton, who continues his murderous row of stomping lefties a new mudhole – ,453 wOBA, .344 ISO and 58% hard contact. Torres and Hicks have a .357 wOBA and .354 wOBA, respectively, while Andujar is right behind them at .348. All three of these power bats have at least a .234 ISO. Rodon is a solid strikeout pitcher, but he’s absolutely been lucky all year against righties, allowing a .194 batting average, .265 BABIP and has a 5.10 xFIP (3.05 ERA). I think it’s time to put the women and children to bed here.
First things first, I am a moron.
I recommended Matt Adams Wednesday as a National, apparently completely oblivious to his move to St. Louis.
Whoops.
But on the plus side, DFS COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK!!!!!
AND Texans, like me, can now play paid contests on FanDuel.
I don’t know what the hell is going on, but it feels like 2015-16 all over again.
And now I probably won’t get anything done at my real job the next few weeks.
Oh boy.
But hey, I guess there is baseball to talk about tonight, right?
There are 14 games, including Coors, with lots of solid pitching options to use. And as for tonight’s stacks, I don’t there is any surprise that my bats are pit against 3 of the 4 lowest-priced pitchers on the slate. Sorry, you will have to subscribe to reveal all! :).
Time to rock ‘n roll!
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Analysis: I always love it when slates make it easy. This one is easy. The Dodgers are a team with tons of power and run-scoring upside and they get to take on Clayton Richard, a poor man’s….well, there is no comparison. I don’t like him as a pitcher even though he’s not the worst one on this slate. He’s got a .333 wOBA against righties this season, allowing 42% hard contact and 1.10 HR/9. He’s also got massive home (3.94 ERA) road (6.28 ERA) splits. He gave up 4 earned in his only start against LAD this season, but that was before the acquisition of Brian Dozier and Manny Machado. Speaking of Machado, he’s a lefty killer if you don’t already know. He sports a .382 wOBA and.215 ISO against lefties this season. But it’s Turner who has destroyed southpaws, sporting a .445 wOBA and .216 ISO with a 45% hard hit rate. Kemp has taken Richard to the woodshed in his career, going 15-for-38 with 5 doubles and 3 home runs. He also sports a .356 wOBA and .252 ISO against lefties in 2018. Kike hasn’t been the stud platoon guy against lefties that he normally is this season, but I still have love for him. His ISO is the only thing worth considering as it sits at .176, which is decent power. Dozier doesn’t make this list because he’s been putrid against lefties this season, so I’ll avoid the chalk there.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Analysis: Derek Holland has become this year’s Wade Miley for me this year. While I am not talking about Holland pitching on this slate, I am talking about Miley, who has been very unlucky against righties all season, evidenced by his .200 BA, .233 BABIP and 4.16 xFIP. Luckily, we have a couple of swashbucklers that have hit Miley very well in their careers and I will ride the BvP for them tonight instead of hoping for Miley’s regression to kick in. Against Miley, Marte is 8-for-18 with a double, a walk and a steal while Freese is 6-for-15 with a home run and 4 walks. The park upgrade at Miller also checks the boxes for this duo tonight.
Back to school for me it is today (Yoda voice). And thus a long 10-months helping students with disabilities is in order. In those 10 months, a lot will happen in fantasy sports. For one, I will continue writing content for the 2018 MLB season, but also fire up new content for the 2019 MLB […]
It’s hard to believe we are almost to September baseball. The season always feels long, yet seems to fly by at the same time.
School is beginning for most, NFL preseason is halfway through, college football starts in just two weeks and baseball will enter its final month of regular season play.
Keep an out for baseball content from us into September, but we also will be kicking off our football content very soon, including some new surprises. You will have to stay tuned for that!
Meanwhile, we have a 10-game slate to tackle tonight, so let’s dive right in, shall we?
NEW YORK METS
Analysis: Is Derek Holland pitching? If that answers a yes, then I am stacking against him in some way. He’s been improved this year, but playing in the national league and in PNC Park will inflate a bad pitcher’s numbers. The Mets haven’t exactly been lighting it up against left-handed pitching, but I will use historically good hitters against lefties to justify me stacking against the Dutch Oven. One player who has smashed lefties this season is Devin Mesoraco, and if he draws the start, he’s my No. 1 overall catcher for this slate, especially considering his price ($3,200) and factoring his numbers against lefties – .363 wOBA, .160 ISO and 33% hard contact against. Rosario has been a hot dog atop this Mets lineup, and his $3,900 price tag shows you how well he’s played recently. Flores used to be an automatic against lefties, but his numbers have dipped this year. I will take the majority of his numbers over what has happened this year. No one will play him at $4,000 at first base.
So if you haven’t noticed, I haven’t had a DRAFT article in a couple of weeks. That’s due in part by me having to go back to my day job as a teacher. My normal routine for DRAFT won’t work with me working, so I had to nip it in the bud as they say. […]