Entries by Stephen Monahan

MLB Value Index – July 24

The summer is quickly coming to an end for this ol’ teacher.

I move into a new position soon and have just a couple of weeks left before I officially return to work.

I won’t be in the classroom this year, and instead move into another facet of special education.

I’ll wear many hats and I’ll be plenty busy. It’s an exciting time to be starting something new. I’ll have to be flexible and adapt to different situations.

I guess it will be similar to the way you play MLB DFS each season.

You start with a strategy, make selections based on certain situations, decide on an optimal bankroll management budget, etc.

But with the MLB season, things change, and you adapt.

Playing the entire MLB season the same way sets you up for failure. Hot and cold streaks continue, positive and negative regression come into play, teams fighting for the playoffs tighten up the ranks, injuries, call ups, weather, etc. It all changes. So you have to make the necessary adjustments to optimize your lineup construction. I’ve had to do it every year.

The start of the season was a struggle. I felt like I was chasing all the time. Arcade Mode came out and I started to win and win and win some more. I made up my losses and turned that into a big profit.

So I started playing a lot more Arcade Mode on DraftKings and less of the classic style, and I started losing, and losing and losing.

So I stopped playing much Arcade Mode and went back to classic style and started winning again. The strategies for both formats are different, but the thought process isn’t. You have to give your teams as much upside as possible in tournaments.

I’ve briefly talked about change above. I think it’s always a good thing to consider.

But one thing that shouldn’t change to be successful is attitude. You have to have the right attitude to play DFS and profit. Feeling down and frustrated isn’t going to get you very far. You have to be able to have fun, shrug off the bad nights and stay fresh. It’s easier said than done, but I’ve been there. I always have to remind myself to have fun. Because this is fun, even when you lose. You get to build a team of your own with your own players like it’s your own team on that field. It’s fun to draft those players each night. And of course it’s great to win, but overall, it has to stay fun.

If it’s not fun, take a day or two off, reset your strategy, test it out in some free contests and see what happens. See how you feel at the end of the night, make your tweaks and roll it out in some paid contests.

We have 12 games tonight and a slew of solid to great pitching options to choose from. We have games in Texas and Arizona and a lot of pitcher-friendly ballparks, too.

Good luck everyone, sorry for the lecture. Let’s get to today’s rankings by position, my favorite stacks and today’s official picks.

Catcher

  1. Welington Castillo
  2. Alex Avila
  3. Russell Martin
  4. J.T. Realmuto
  5. Salvador Perez

First Base

  1. Miguel Cabrera
  2. Paul Goldschmidt
  3. Joey Votto
  4. Mike Napoli
  5. Matt Carpenter

Second Base

  1. Brian Dozier
  2. Jonathan Schoop
  3. Ian Kinsler
  4. Rougned Odor
  5. Joe Panik

Third Base

  1. Adrian Beltre
  2. Manny Machado
  3. Miguel Sano
  4. Jake Lamb
  5. Wilmer Flores

Shortstop

  1. Corey Seager
  2. Francisco Lindor
  3. Zack Cozart
  4. Paul deJong
  5. Marcus Semien

Outfield

  1. Giancarlo Stanton
  2. Cody Bellinger
  3. Yoenis Cespedes
  4. Khris Davis
  5. Nelson Cruz

Pitchers

  1. Jacob deGrom
  2. Justin Verlander
  3. Brad Peacock
  4. Zack Greinke
  5. Kevin Gausman

Stacks

  1. Miami Marlins
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks
  4. Houston Astros
  5. Cleveland Indians
  6. Colorado Rockies

 

Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Miami Marlins – $5,500

Analysis: You know me, this is going to be my No. 1 play on the board. Giancarlo Stanton vs. a lefty. That lefty is Martin Perez, who pitches for the Rangers, who are at home where it’s freaking hot! Stanton is a lefty masher and he’s been killing them this season and it hasn’t even gotten good for him yet. Against lefties in 2017, Stanton has a .399 wOBA, a .370 ISO and a 35% hard contact rate. His BABIP against lefties is .231. That’s insane! As for Perez, lefties own a .364 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate. This is Texas, who has one of the worst bullpens in the league, too. Marlins are probably the chalk of the night.

Yoenis Cespedes – OF – New York Mets – $3,600

Analysis: For me, this is the value play of the day. You get a big-time bopper at this price AND he’s facing a lefty? I don’t really care about the ballpark, Cespedes has power that supersedes any ballpark factor. Surprisingly, Cespedes hasn’t faced Padres’ southpaw Clayton Richard in his career. But against lefties this season, Yoenis has a .378 wOBA, a .347 ISO and a 38% hard contact rate. Against RH bats this season, Richard has allowed a whopping .390 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate.

Adrian Beltre – 3B – Texas Rangers – $4,000

Analysis: There are a ton of 3B to like on this slate, but Beltre is my absolute favorite. The Rangers have been pretty bad against lefties this season. Overall, they are flooded with lefty bats, but this team has a couple of lefty mashers (more on that later). Beltre hasn’t quite found his groove against lefties this season, but he is long overdue. Against lefties in 2017, Beltre owns a .359 wOBA and a 38% hard contact rate. But the number that sticks out the most is that Beltre has ZERO home runs against a southpaw this season. For me, this is a lot like Miggy a few weeks back before the ASG break – no homers vs. lefties and facing a weak lefty. Beltre and the Rangers are taking on Adam Conley in the Texas heat. Sorry Conley, your .346 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate against RH bats this season may not fair well today.

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July 24 by

MLB Value Index – July 21

The end of the week has arrived! Hopefully you aren’t too tired staying up late and watching the Open Championship, that is if you are into that sort of thing. Tonight we have a 14-game slate to tackle. And honestly, I think this one is tough. On one hand we have some excellent pitching options […]

July 21 by

MLB Value Index – July 20

Ugh. Thursday is not a good day to be playing MLB DFS. Four games in the early slate, five games in the late slate. I wish it would’ve all been open so I could concentrate all of my time Wednesday to Open Championship lineups. But if you need your DFS fix, I am here to […]

July 20 by

MLB Value Index – July 19 (All Day)

Two big trades went down yesterday that not only affected lineups prior to lock last night, but should also affect lineups today.

J.D. Martinez traded from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks. Todd Frazier traded to the New York Yankees from the Chicago White Sox. In a related move, the Sox are calling up big-time prospect Yoan Moncada to replace Frazier.

Somethings to keep in mind as we get to lineup lock on each of the two slates today.

We get thrust right back into action today, and early…very early. Games kick off just after 11 a.m. central.

So I hope you wake up early to read the Index (or stay up late), get that coffee and pancakes and let’s dive in.

I’ve started something new with the Index this week, providing rankings at each position, but I am only doing that on full slates, not split ones. So no rankings today, but I will provide a few plays from each slate and my favorite stacks, at least.

Good luck, and may the baseball gods smile on your DFS lineups today (sorry, I’ve been watching Game of Thrones a lot lately and I really want to talk like that all the time).

P.S. As usual with split slates on premium days, you will get the early games free of charge while the night slate will require a subscription, which you get obtain over ———> HERE.

EARLY SLATE

Jose Berrios – SP – Minnesota Twins – $6,700

Analysis: For both slates, I really like a lot of pitching options. On the early slate, I am half tempted to stack Rocks/Pads and then interchange all of the pitchers on this 7-game slate. Both pitchers I am recommending here are more about price enforcing. First is Berrios, who has filthy offspeed stuff and has been really good this season. A matchup with the Yankees looks daunting, but the Yankees aren’t the same team away from home. Berrios has been stellar at home this season, going 4-1 with a 2.86 ERA and has allowed just one home run at home compared to 8 on the road. The Yanks strike out at a 22% clip and playing the early game, you likely won’t see Gary Sanchez in this lineup either. Give me all the Berrios.

James Paxton – SP – Seattle Mariners – $7,400

Analysis: I had to really sit and think, and do a little digging to decide on Paxton. He’s another guy who has been priced in the elite pitching range only to have the price drop due to the matchup. The Astros have been tough to play this season and while they will be without Carlos Correa for 6-to-8 weeks, this lineup can still hurt you up and down the lineup. Good thing Paxton is a badass. The ‘Stros have been awful against Paxton this season and in his career. This season, Paxton has 13 Ks in 13 innings and hasn’t allowed a run. In his career against the current roster, Paxton owns a .209 batting average, allowed just 2 HRs, and has struck out 24 batters in 110 ABs. The price is just too good to ignore here. I imagine pairing Berrios and Paxton together will be super contrarian today, but I like both of them a lot. And I am sure as hell not paying up for Carlos Carrasco.

Carlos Asuaje – 2B – San Diego Padres – $3,600

Analysis: I don’t know much about this guy, but he’s been batting second for the red-hot Padres and is at Coors Field. He’s paid off for me the past two nights in a big way and is still cheap. The Pads take on Jon Gray, who is a better pitcher than Senzatela and Marquez, but he still has allowed a .402 wOBA to lefties this season.

Matt Kemp – OF – Atlanta Braves – $3,900

Analysis: Matt Kemp versus a lefty is still a thing. Kemp and the Braves take on starter Mike Montgomery and the Cubs. This Monty has been full of let downs of late, and now gets a tough matchup in a hitter’s paradise. Montgomery has allowed a .328 wOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to RH bats this season. Kemp is just 1-for-5 against Monty in his career. Let’s hope he adds to that during his current hot streak.

Colorado Rockies RHs – Ian Desmond, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado

Analysis: We don’t know what kind of lineup we will see, but I would imagine Desmond, Arenado and Story will crack the lineup today. I love them all. They all crush lefty pitching and Clayton Richard is in Coors and owns a terrible track record against the red-hot Rockies. Arenado against Richard – 4-for-9 with a double and a triple, Desmond – 6-for-18 with 2 HRs and Story is 1-for-3, but is starting to heat up himself.

STACKS

  1. Colorado Rockies
  2. San Diego Padres
  3. Cleveland Indians
  4. Miami Marlins
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July 19 by

MLB Value Index – June 18

To give you an idea of tonight’s pitching options, here’s what is available.

A 44-year-old hefty Colon…

A 38-year-old journeyman getting his second start of the season…

A 38-year-old veteran, whose lost some zip on his pitches, coming off of the DL…

And Edwin Jackson…

Somehow Edwin Jackson is still a thing. Of course the same could be said about Bartolo Colon, but he’s 44 and just now finding out retirement is upon him.

But Edwin Jackson…I thought he was long gone.

Oh and also twirling tonight is Clayton Kershaw…then there’s the rest of the field.

Roster construction will be interesting tonight as we have Coors and other priced-up players in fantastic matchups, but pitching is week and Kershaw looks to be the chalk.

Yesterday I tried a different format, ranking my top-5 favorite plays at each hitting position (I guess I can toy with pitching in the future) and then gave you my 5 favorite stacks. I like having a format going into each write-up, so I think I will stick with it from here on out on full slates.

By the way, the rankings are based on players and matchup, not price. For example, I think Gary Sanchez is the top catching option on the board, but I like Brian McCann (my official pick) because of his price. Thus, i can see coming off of Sanchez because he’s the top-priced catcher. Maybe that only makes sense to me, but just go with it! 🙂

So for today, here are my positional rankings and favorite stacks. Following them, are my official picks. Good luck!

Catcher

  1. Gary Sanchez – New York Yankees
  2. Brian McCann – Houston Astros
  3. Willson Contreras – Chicago Cubs
  4. Russell Martin – Toronto Blue Jays
  5. Salvador Perez – Kansas City Royals

First Base

  1. Freddie Freeman
  2. Logan Morrison
  3. Miguel Cabrera
  4. Matt Adams
  5. Chris Davis

Second Base

  1. Starlin Castro – New York Yankees
  2. Ian Kinsler – Detroit Tigers
  3. Jose Altuve – Houston Astros
  4. Whitt Merrifield – Kansas City Royals
  5. Cody Asuaje – San Diegy Padres

Third Base

  1. Kris Bryant – Chicago Cubs
  2. Josh Donaldson – Toronto Blue Jays
  3. Jake Lamb – Arizona Diamondbacks
  4. Travis Shaw – Milwaukee Brewers
  5. Nick Castellanos – Detroit Tigers

Shortstop

  1. Didi Gregorius – New York Yankees
  2. Corey Seager – Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Zack Cozart – Cincinnati Reds
  4. Marcus Semien – Oakland Athletics
  5. Javier Baez – Chicago Cubs

Outfielders

  1. Mike Trout
  2. Charlie Blackmon
  3. Aaron Judge
  4. J.D. Martinez
  5. Adam Duvall

Stacks

  1. New York Yankees
  2. Colorado Rockies
  3. Detroit Tigers
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks
  5. Houston Astros

 

Didi Gregorius – SS – New York Yankees – $3,800

Analysis: As you might have noticed, the Yankees flare up a lot in my rankings above and in my player picks below. Starting with Didi Gregorius, the Yankees have an awesome matchup against the flailing Bartolo Colon. I know the Yankees played a long game on Saturday, a doubleheader Sunday and traveled to play a game on Monday. That Monday game probably got the jet lag out of them and with a good night’s rest, I like the Yankees to bounce back against the 44-year-old veteran. Against lefties this season, Colon has allowed a .371 wOBA, a 1.44 HR/9 and a 35% hard contact rate. The Twins’ ballpark has been one of the tops in the league for runs scored and homeruns allowed. Keep that in mind today when you are making your lineups.

Blake Snell – SP – Tampa Bay Rays – $6,600

Analysis: I really wanted to recommend Junior Guerra, but coming off the DL and the fact he’s not that good, I just couldn’t. You can make the same argument against Snell. Maybe he’s not that good. But his opponent is just awful against lefties. The A’s are THE worst team in wOBA against lefties this season and they strike out at a 26% clip. If Snell can keep the control issues at bay, he can utilize that big ballpark to his advantage and have himself a day.

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July 18 by

MLB Value Index – July 17

Our first full week of baseball sans all-star break is upon us!

And to kick off the week, we have a 12-game slate on tap.

Pitching is OK I guess, but I am not truly in love with a lot of options.

For today (and maybe some other times too) I am going to focus on one hitting position as official picks and then for the other hitters, I have listed a set of rankings, one through five. I also will have a list of my top 5 stacks of the night below the rankings.

Feel free to give a shout out on Twitter or comment below on what you think about this. I hope the rankings at least provide you some solid options to fill out your lineups and win you some money.

Catcher

  1. Gary Sanchez
  2. Stephen Vogt
  3. James McCann
  4. Evan Gattis
  5. Tony Wolters

1st Base

  1. Miguel Cabrera
  2. Wil Myers
  3. Justin Bour
  4. Logan Morrison
  5. Chris Davis

2nd Base

  1. Jonathan Schoop
  2. Ian Kinsler
  3. Casey Asujae
  4. Starlin Castro
  5. Rougned Odor

3rd Base

  1. Manny Machado
  2. Adrian Beltre
  3. Miguel Sano
  4. Josh Harrison
  5. Ryon Healy

Shortstop

  1. Carlos Correa
  2. Xander Bogaerts
  3. Brandon Crawford
  4. Elvis Andrus
  5. Marcus Semien

Stacks

  1. Astros
  2. Rockies
  3. Yankees
  4. Orioles
  5. Tigers

 

Eduardo Rodriguez – SP – Boston Red Sox – $8,200

Analysis: Like I said, I am not in love with a lot of pitching options. Josh Tomlin looked like a guy I wanted to use as an SP2, but not for freaking $8,000! But who I will pay that kind of salary for is E-Rod, who comes off the DL to face the Blue Jays at home tonight. He threw nearly 100 pitches in his last rehab start, so I am not really worried about his pitch count. I expect a lot of people to be worried about it. I think this is a great night to pay down for pitching (even though I do like McCullers) and pay up for bats. E-Rod is under priced against a weak Blue Jays team who people will continue to think is a great offense, and they aren’t. The BJs are 16th in team wOBA against lefties and strike out 21% of the time. E-Rod has been great at home in just 3 starts this season, sporting a 1.56 ERA and 21 Ks in 17 innings. E-Rod has solid PvB as well – 14-for-73, 4 HRs, 12 walks and a .192 average.

Kyle Schwarber – OF – Chicago Cubs – $4,100

Analysis: Of course I trade this guy in a season-long keeper league and he’s come back on a tear. He was tearing up AAA and has finally found his stroke. The Cubs take on a struggling Julio Teheran, who has not adjusted to the new jump SunTrust Park has given to offenses. Teheran has a 7+ ERA at home this season and continues to struggles against lefties. This is a hot hitter versus a struggling hitter in a game we need to have exposure to tonight.

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July 17 by

MLB Value Index – July 14

Oh thank god…. Baseball is back. It was only 4 days, but damn was it a long four days. I played WNBA and CFL in its stead, along with a watered down PGA field, and it still didn’t fill the void. Maybe I have a problem, eh? Anyhow, who didn’t think Judge was going to […]

July 14 by

MLB Value Index – July 7

Well it’s good to be back! Back home. Back to baseball DFS. And back to writing the Value Index. It’s been a 3-day hiatus for myself as the wife and daughter went and visited family. The trip went well and culminated to a mountain of puke from my 19-month-old thanks to good ol’ car sickness. […]

July 7 by

MLB Value Index – July 3

Happy American Independence Day everyone!

That’s as political as the Value Index gets.

This week I will be out of pocket and won’t return with an Index until Friday. I am SO sure you will miss me. But good luck in DFS this week and I hope we can kick off this week with a bang.

We have an 8-game slate on tap and pitching suuuuuuuuccckkks.

Stroman and Tanaka are the top-priced pitching and there are crap pitchers in the $8K range. There’s one pitcher, maybe two that stick out to me as must plays, well one for sure. Plus, we have Coors.

Anyway, let’s get after it!

Carlos Rodon – SP – Chicago White Sox – $6,500

Analysis: Rostering Rodon always makes me feel queasy. The stuff and the talent are there, but so are the walks. A lot of walks. He walked six in his first start off the DL. But he gets a matchup with a lot of strikeout upside and Rodon can certainly strike out folks. The A’s strikeout at a 25% clip against lefties and are 29th in team wOBA. Outside of Khris Davis, there’s really nothing to be too afraid of here.

Rougned Odor – 2B – Texas Rangers – $4,200

Analysis: The guy has a couple of good games and his price skyrockets $1,000. That’s fine. No one will play him tonight now. Rick Porcello has been getting mashed with hard contact from both sides of the plate this season. It’s starting to really get hot in Texas and the ball will fly in this heat. Odor is hot right now and 6-for-9 with a double, a triple and four RBIs. All he needs against Porcello for BvP purposes is that elusive home run.

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July 3 by

MLB Value Index – June 30

I got cute yesterday and faded Clayton Kershaw from my cash lineups. I don’t know why I did it, but I did and I am ashamed. I talked about not paying up for pitching yesterday, but it was Kershaw and I always play Kershaw in cash. Sometimes we can get into our own heads I […]

June 30 by

MLB Value Index – June 29

I’ve always been a person who believes you should pay up for pitching in cash games in DFS. This is my fourth season playing baseball DFS and I can honestly say that paying up for pitching has absolutely killed me. Unless it’s just a play I can’t refuse, I’ve started to pay down for pitching […]

June 29 by

MLB Value Index – June 28

Welcome to another edition of the Value Index.

Today we try to tackle the 13-game main slate.

There’s a 2-game early slate, but we aren’t going to focus on it. I personally don’t play 2-game slates, and much prefer 5 games or more.

Anyway, after a slate that featured a lot of safe pitching options, we have a slate that has a couple of high-priced guys and we have to click and cross our fingers for the rest.

My favorite stack of the day is the Astros, however the Diamondbacks, Tigers, Nats, Reds and Brewers are all close behind. The Astros don’t seem to play well at home, but they have the BvP to back up using them against A’s starter Jesse Hahn.

Today’s picks won’t have any Astros, but I think you can stack them every which way tonight.

As for today, let’s get to it.

Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Miami Marlins – $4,200

Analysis: Typically when I recommend someone on the Index one day and they dud, and I like them the next, they do very well. I think we got an unfortunate bounce with Ozuna and Stanton yesterday as Gsellman exited the game early, so there weren’t a lot of opportunities. Hopefully Stanton gets a few chances at lefty Steven Matz tonight. You know my rule if you have been following, Stanton versus a lefty is a thing. Against Matz in his career, Stanton is 3-for-7 with 2 HRs and a walk. Stanton is cheap and is likely going to be in 80-90 percent of my lineups.

Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Toronto Blue Jays – $3,200

Analysis: This bastard just had to hit a homerun yesterday. I wanted to play him, but felt Lindor was a must-play so I missed out on Tulo. He’s starting to his well though (finally) and faces a lefty, something he used to pound when he played for the Rockies. I hope Tulo is starting to come around. I think he has a lot of upside still and we are getting him at a very, very cheap price. He faces Wade Miley tonight and he is 10-for-25 with 3 doubles, a home run and 4 walks against him. Tulo has a .143 BABIP against lefties this season, so something has to give eventually.

Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Detroit Tigers – $3,500

Analysis: Miggy was an easy call yesterday, wasn’t he? Now he is cheaper and facing pitcher that he has had a lot of success against. Ian Kennedy takes on the Tigers tonight and something is not right with Kennedy. I love this stack, including Cabrera, who is 5-for-14 with two doubles, a triple, 4 walks and zero strikeouts. Kennedy is a flyball pitcher and the Tigers are a team that plays really well at home most days.

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June 28 by