Happy Good Friday everyone! It’s a wonderful day for baseball and fantasy baseball! Tonight’s slate is awesome. We have a ton of games, a great array of starting pitchers to choose from, including Clayton Kershaw, and some interesting ways we can attack this slate. Considering this is a freebie Friday for the Value Index, it’s […]
Baseball is a funny sport. DFS baseball is even funnier. Last night, I had, by far, the weirdest cash game stat line that cashed, with ease might I add. See the screenshot below. I know I’ve never won any significant amount of money with a pitcher that gets me -16 fantasy points. This lineup didn’t […]
I guess it was a good thing the rain pushed me off of Jameson Taillon last night. He wasn’t horrible, but wasn’t spectacular as the Reds continue to reek havoc on opposing pitching to start the season.
Taillon’s performance won’t boost my grading here at DO, but there were plenty of pitchers that spun the ball efficiently last night, including Pied Piper Cole Hamels, who I used quite a bit.
Hell, I even came around on Wily Peralta late in the afternoon after Josh Donaldson was ruled out, and he put up a decent stat line at his cheap price.
The weirdest thing of all Wednesday was Jered Weaver being serviceable against the Rockies. I don’t know if it’s the cooler temperature in Denver, but the Rockies haven’t shown to be the Rockies yet. Arenado and LeMahieu each missed homeruns early in that game, but CarGo, Blackmon and later Arenado hit the go-ahead bomb, to take only a 3-2 win over the Padres.
If you had the Mets, which many didn’t in tournaments, you were the breadwinner last night. I probably should start keeping track of that just for fun and total that as the rest of the year plays out?
I look at the winning lineup in a large-field GPP each Monday through Friday, record what teams had the stack that night and tally, so the Mets would have a tally mark for tonight and tomorrow it could be Colorado and just see how the stacks play out over the course of the year. If two 3-man stacks are part of the winner, then each team gets a point. What do you think?
I’ll think about that moving forward.
Anyway, it’s hump day for the Index, which means, for the last time this week, you will be required to be a premium member or a 7-day free trial subscriber to access all 7 picks for tonight’s slate. Good luck, as always!
Kole Calhoun – OF – Los Angeles Angels – $3,900
Analysis: Don’t get me wrong, I love Trout and I love Trout in this spot (he’s a Ranger killer). But I love me some Kole Calhoun. Lefties against A.J. Griffin have raked against the soft-tossing RH hurler. Since 2014, Griffin has allowed a whopping .291 average, a .414 wOBA and a 2.98 HR/9 rate to lefties. Calhoun is one of the few lefties on this team and hits in the heart of the order. In that same time frame as Griffin, Calhoun has a .336 wOBA, a .176 ISO and a 32% hard contact rate against RH pitching. The Angels’ ballpark makes things a little more difficult, but Calhoun is one of the top options on the board for me.
Mitch Moreland – 1B – Boston Red Sox – $3,500
Analysis: Mitch Moreland is a very hot and very cold hitter. Right now, he’s one of the lone bright spots in this Boston offense. Moreland has 3 multi-hit games in his last 5 (hits in all). I don’t like to recommend Mitch ever because he can instantly go cold, and for a long time. Moreland owns a .330 wOBA, a .192 ISO and a 38% hard contact rate against RH pitching. Fenway is tougher on lefty bats, but it is still favorable for Mitch, who takes on Ubaldo Jimenez, who can blow up on the road in a hurry. He owns a .341 wOBA against lefties since 2014 and a 30% hard contact rate. Jimenez gives up way more fly balls to lefties than right-handers as well. No BvP data right now, but i hope it confirms my love for Moreland today.
Well turning 34 didn’t have the fantasy outcome I wanted last night, but overall, it was a good day (minus some food that made me ill the rest of the night and into this morning).
TMI?
Yea, sorry about that.
Tyler Glasnow was my kryptonite last night and ruined a lot of great lineups for me. To be transparent, outside of Opening Day, this guy has struggled to put it all together this baseball season. But that’s OK, it’s part of DFS. Targeting the right plays, making smart decisions and stacks that flop are all apart of the process.
For example, Wily Peralta versus the Cubs at Miller Park last week. Didn’t go so well. But tonight? Wily Peralta at Toronto (Coors Field Jr.)? YES PLEASE. More on him later.
Anyway, today is premium content Tuesday, so be sure to sign up for our free 7-day trial or outright sign up for our premium subscription to access all of our daily fantasy baseball content.
Time for some picks!
Jameson Taillon – SP – Pittsburgh Pirates – $8,400
Analysis: Tonight’s pitching options are weak to quite weak. I mean, our top option is Cole Hamels on DraftKings, and he’s the bane of my existence despite playing for my favorite team. He’s also a dog in the game, oddly enough. And after Glasnow walked the entire Reds’ batting order last night and promptly scored -9+ DK fantasy points, Taillon ownership could be lower than it should be. And I hope people are scared of him at $8,400. I am not going to be. He’s shown to be an elite groundball pitcher and gets to play in the confines of PNC Park where homeruns go to die. He’s also the biggest favorite on the board tonight at a -190 moneyline. He has a less than 2 walks per inning rate to both sides of the plate and produces groundballs to both sides at a near 2.00 GB/FB rate. He’s a safe option if you don’t want to spend up tonight. He also has better control than Glasnow and more experience. Also, something I haven’t been doing as much I should be is visiting pitcherlist.com. It gives you expert analysis on every MLB starter’s pitches to go along with a .gif of the pitches in action. It’s great. I am going to make this a part of my daily routine from now on. Read up on Taillon and watch the clips, you wiil see why I love him tonight.
Welington Castillo – C – Baltimore Orioles – $3,800
Analysis: I am in no way going to trust the Drew Pomeranz’s arm is anywhere close to normal. And he takes the bump tonight against the Orioles at Fenway Park, a RH batters’ ideal hitting oasis. As long as the Orioles run out Castillo over Joseph, I am all in here. He has a 42% hard contact rate against lefties since 2014, a .358 wOBA, a .224 ISO and hits a decent amount of flyballs. While the Green Monster can suck up homeruns, it easily gives up a lot of hits. I am in and it’s not even close.
So today is my birthday…
That’s all I have to say about that.
But it is also a 5-game evening slate in the majors, and one of those games features Coors Field with the Padres. This will probably be one of the few times you will want to target Padres this season. They and the Rockies all will likely be the chalk on this slate.
Since we only have 5 games, I am not going to provide a full set of picks for the Index. I will have a pitcher and then a few bats that I like for today.
Remember, the Index becomes premium content today through Wednesday and then opens up as a freebie Thursday and Friday. BUT, the good news is that you can start a free 7-day trial to our premium content if you haven’t yet. If you have burned the trial and haven’t signed up, I will still have a couple of picks free every premium day and then you can make the decision to subscribe if you like what you read, or helps you win some money (I am hoping for both!).
With that said, let’s get to the picks. Today you will get the pitcher I like best and a bat for free, to see the rest, that is up to you!
Jacob deGrom – SP – New York Mets – $9,300
Analysis: In his first start since offseason elbow surgery, deGrom fired 6 scoreless innings with 6 Ks and 2 hits to the Atlanta Braves. Now, deGrom might look like a shoe in, but he is facing a Phillies team that scored 12 runs in the first innings two nights ago and then got to Stephen Strasburg for 3 earned runs on Sunday. I am not expecting for deGrom to get lit up, but if the Phillies are swinging the stick well, there’s a decent chance deGrom could give up a couple of runs in a more hitter-friendly ballpark. In 63 ABs against the current Phillies roster, deGrom has given up just one home run and a .190 average. He’s tough against both sides of the plate, giving up less than a .300 wOBA to righties and lefties, gives up less than a HR/9 to both sides of the plate, and strikes out both sides at a 9 K/9 rate.
Charlie Blackmon – OF – Colorado Rockies – $5,100
Analysis: Well, I thought we were going to get Trevor Cahill in this spot, but now we get Zach Lee. Blackmon had the BvP numbers against Cahill, but I i don’t really care because Zach Lee hasn’t shown to be much better. In limited action in the majors in 2015, Lee owned a .643 wOBA and a .563 batting average to lefties. Now, those numbers are obviously not sustainable over a season, but this is Coors and everything gets inflated in this ballpark most days. Blackmon is a stud who is a leffy, leads off and for the past three seasons, hits RHP very well, owning a .303 batting average, a .369 wOBA and a .201 ISO against RH pitching. Needless to say, Blackmon is worth every penny tonight.
Let’s make one thing clear, the pitching on tonight’s MLB slate stinks. Trying to decode pitching for tonight is like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube on the first try. This is what happens on Opening Week though. It will take a few weeks before we have the studs shuffled into the fold. Tonight is […]
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