Entries by Stephen Monahan

NFL – Cash Game Index – Week 13

Now that we are done with Thanksgiving and tossed all the leftovers in the trash, we can get back to routine and normalcy.

It’s Week 13, the Cowboys and Saints have kicked things off in a big way, we have no buy weeks and the playoff picture will start rounding into form in the next few weeks.

Most importantly, season-long fantasy playoffs either are getting underway this week or you are hoping for one more win to get in next week.

We have some important decisions to make with two of the top scoring teams on this slate – Rams and Chiefs. But the Chiefs are in Oakland and are all priced up, making it hard to fit them in cash this week.

Meanwhile, the Rams are getting to square off against the lowly Detroit Lions on the road.

One thing we have to keep watch with this week are the injuries. There’s a slew of them that can impact builds this week. Keep an eye out, lock into Twitter and follow your favorite DFS or beat writers.

As for Week 13, let’s get it on.

QUARTERBACKS

Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers – $6,600

Analysis: I remember this spot, it’s the same one as a few weeks ago when Cam barely made cash game value as his team scored 4 rushing touchdowns. But we have it again as the Panthers travel to Tampa. The Bucs have been a porous defense against the pass, but in the past four weeks, teams have shelled them on the ground. Don’t let that output fool you here though. The Bucs have faced San Francisco, Washington and the New York Giants, none of whom can get anything going in the passing game this season. I think this is a sneaky shootout candidate with Carolina on the road and the Bucs should revert back to their old ways as the team giving up the fourth most fantasy points to QBs.

Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts – $5,800

Analysis: This is all I am going to write in this spot – Andrew Luck’s passing TDs from Week 4 to Week 13: 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3.

Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings – $5,500

Analysis: I really loved the Vikings this week, but the injuries to Thielen and Diggs have me a little worried about Kirk Cousins, whose price seems so low for a matchup with the Patriots, who are allowing the seventh most fantasy points to QBs this season and allowing 269 yards passing per game.

Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions – $5,400

Analysis: In their last four games, and granted one of them was against the Chiefs, the Rams – Detroit’s opponent this week – are allowing the most fantasy points per game to QBs, surrendering an average of 333 yards through the air and 4 TDs. Without Kerryon Johnson and a likely negative game script, all signs point to a potential huge day for Stafford who has one of the best up-and-coming receivers at his disposal.

Case Keenum – Denver Broncos – $5,200

Analysis: The Broncos are on the road this week to face the Bungals, who are giving up the second-most fantasy points to QBs over the past four weeks and are allowing 292 yards passing and 31 points per game this season. I think the Broncos are a sneaky team to stack this week and Keenum is in nearly the best possible matchup for a QB on this slate.

Marcus Mariota – Tennessee Titans – $5,200

Analysis: Another QB that seems to cheap this week, especially factoring in Mariota’s opponent – the New York Jets, who have been lit up at times by opposing QBs, giving up 300-yard passing games to Matthew Stafford, Case Keenum, Andrew Luck and almost Tom Brady last week. Mariota has been much better since getting healthy on his buy week, putting up fantasy totals of 24, 22, 4 and 25.

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December 1 by

CFB – Power 5 – Championship Week

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. Michigan
8. UCF

If there were an 8-team playoff, the current college football rankings would look like this going into Championship Week.

A lot could happen this week to finalize who goes to the 4-team playoff, but there’s one thing that’s certain, win or lose, Alabama is getting in.

I hate to admit it, but how could they not get in, even if they lose? It happened last year, even though their loss was way early in the 2017 season.

And I didn’t want them in because of that, but they went and won the whole damn thing. Clemson is probably the only real team that could keep Bama from repeating. Michigan really screwed the pooch for getting smeared by Ohio State, otherwise ‘Bama would be sweating if they lose to Georgia in the SEC title game.

But if Georgia wins, and OU wins, then does OU get in? Or what about Ohio State, who has a 26-point loss to unranked Purdue as their only blemish?

I don’t think it really matters, ‘Bama is winning it all no matter what.

And here we have our last official regular season slate of the 2018 college football season, but no worries, there’s plenty of college football DFS left until January. Good luck in Championship Week!

QUARTERBACKS

Kyler Murray – Oklahoma – $10,300

Analysis: Averaging 38 fantasy points per game, we have the best fantasy QB of the slate in a rematch against bitter rival Texas, who the Sooners fell to on a last-second kick back in October. It’s hard to beat a team twice in one season and I am sure that Oklahoma will be firing on all cylinders this time around. This game has the highest total on the board and you better believe you will see lots of ownership of players in this game. Murray does it all and he’s who you should be starting your lineup construction with this week.

Sam Ehlinger – Texas – $9,000

Analysis: It’s going to be really hard to stack this game up and down, especially if you use Murray and Ehlinger in your lineups. Two quarterbacks is a sound strategy to winning a slate. Ehlinger is in a prime blowup spot once again against OU as the Sooners have surrendered 40 points in 4 straight games, and all were wins. He put up a 40-burger in their first meeting and with a mediocre running game, the Longhorns will be throwing to keep up in this one.

Tua Tagolvailoa – Alabama – $8,600

Analysis: I don’t think I’ve recommended Tua all year long because he hasn’t had to play a full game in most weeks. That hasn’t stopped him from getting there most of the time either. Now he’s at his cheapest price and facing his toughest defense to date. Clearly, this is a GPP only play, but this Alabama-Georgia game somehow has a 63.5 total, which seems awfully high considering bowl squads have awesome defenses. Tua has a slew of likely first-round draft picks at wide receiver and he can make things happen with his legs. He’s matchup proof. I’m finally convinced. (#hotdogjinx)

Darriel Mack, Jr. – UCF – $6,800

Analysis: Poor McKenzie Milton’s football days might be over after a devastating knee injury in UCF’s final regular season game. Now the team will play in another rematch against Memphis, in which UCF won by one point. With their quarterback and captain and 23-game undefeated streak on their minds, I look for UCF to rally around new QB Darriel Mack, who is more of a runner than a passer it appears. This game has one of the highest totals on the board, but I am not so sure that’s as warranted considering the lack of passing UCF has done in the two games Mack has played this season. Memphis gives up yards and points through the air and on the ground, it’s Mack’s rushing ability (171 yards in two appearances) coupled with his price that makes me want to go all in. Any TDs through the air are just bonuses.

Chase Garbers – California – $5,300

Analysis: This is a pure punt play based on matchup. Stanford and Cal meet in the PAC-12 title game, and it’s Cal that has the stout defense this season. Stanford’s one weakness defensively is defending the pass, where opponents are averaging 281.7 yards passing per game. Garbers has mobility and a rushing floor/ceiling. But he gets the extra boost in the passing game thanks to Stanford’s soft secondary.

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November 29 by

NFL – Value Index – Week 12 (Sunday Edition)

I am still in a food coma.

And while Thanksgiving football was somewhat of a letdown, the day of food, family and football was still awesome. The hangover of the Rams/Chiefs game may still be lingering a bit as well.

But before we dive into my favorite plays of the week, I would like to announce that I believe it’s time to do something about this Thanksgiving football tradition.

The Cowboys and Lions play every year on Thanksgiving, but the Lions have got to go.

They are annually bad, perennially bad and yet we have to be force fed their game every Thursday on Thanksgiving.

The NFL needs to change this up. Leave the Cowboys alone, they are a prime draw no matter what.

But let’s flex the other two games. I love having 3 games and watching one game after another, but Thanksgiving could be even more awesome if you had some of the top teams playing each other on this particular day every year.

They flex the Bears around so they have to play a late night Sunday game and then an early Thursday, so why not make these two games flexible and change them up a couple of weeks before Thanksgiving.

Watching the Lions every year is the about as nut low as you can get. But why not have a game like Rams/Chiefs or something competitive, every year?

Anyway, that’s my spiel, now let’s get to the meal.

There’s no cash game index this week, just an overall Value Index since we had a Thanksgiving write up and not a ton of time to publish two separate articles.

I won’t be playing cash this week because of the bankroll I played Thursday, and will be my lowest volume slate of the year. Things will go back to normal in Week 13.

QUARTERBACKS

Carson Wentz – QB – Philadelphia Eagles – $5,900

Analysis: After a dud against the Saints, I am on the Carson Wentz train this week. In fact, I may not play another quarterback. The Giants are allowing 256 yards passing per game and 26 points per game. Prolific passing offenses have destroyed the Giants this season, including over 350 yards by the Buccaneers’ two QBs last week. This is just a fantastic bounce back spot for Wentz, who has been Mr. Consistency all season long.

Lamar Jackson – QB – Baltimore Ravens – $5,700

Analysis: But then there are plays like Lamar Jackson, who should get the reigns once again this week for an injured Joe Flacco. He rushed for an NFL record 26 times for 119 yards and was 13-for-19 passing. Now he draws the Oakland Raiders, the league’s worst team. giving up 29 points per game.

Russell Wilson – QB – Seattle Seahawks – $5,600

Analysis: This is one of the games with sneaky shootout potential. Russell Wilson is a big-time player in November in his career, but the only thing holding him back is the Seahawks’ run-first mentality. However, Carolina has been susceptible to the pass, giving up 253 yards passing per game. Wilson always has a rushing floor and upside and he will find a way to get the ball to all of his weapons. My only reserve here is a West Coast team traveling East for a 1 p.m. game.

Baker Mayfield – QB – Cleveland Browns – $5,500

Analysis: Baker Mayfield continues his torrid trek through the softest part of his schedule. This week he gets the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed the most fantasy points to QBs this season. This game has a total of 47.5 points, the Bengals allow almost 300 yards passing per game and are surrendering 31 points per game.

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November 23 by

CFB – Power 5 – Week 13

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you get your fill of turkey, ham, gravy, pie, whatever you favor on Turkey Day! This is a busy time of the year for sports, with the big Thanksgiving Day NFL slate, big football games on Friday night and then the last full week of the college football regular season […]

November 22 by

NFL – Value Index – Turkey and Stuffing Edition

After Monday night’s feast, I am ready for a second, maybe even a third helping as we look to stuff ourselves with all the fantasy football we can handle in Week 12. Rams/Chiefs was everything we thought it would be, gravy included, and I am so ready for more! This is a special Thanksgiving edition […]

November 21 by

NFL – GPP Index – Week 11

This week’s marquee game should provide the DFS and fantasy football community some fireworks. Chiefs at Rams, perhaps a Super Bowl preview, highlights Week 11 in the NFL.

Thankfully, the damn game got moved from Mexico back home to the Rams where it belongs.

It makes no sense to have the most anticipated matchup of the NFL regular season to not be played on the soil in which the sport thrives.

I won’t get into all of this, I am just glad the NFL did something about the venue due to field conditions instead of risking injury to players on two of its best teams in the league.

But switching gears to the main slate this week, we have one really intriguing game and a lot of meh games. There’s maybe a couple of meh games that could turn into track meets.

Oh and after manhandling the Eagles, I predict the Cowboys will do such a Cowboys thing this week and get smacked around by the Falcons.

But I digress, it’s time to dig into some GPP plays for Week 11.

QUARTERBACKS

Phillip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers – $6,000

Analysis: The Broncos haven’t been the No Fly Zone all season, but they still have Chris Harris in the slot. But Rivers has been running through all opposing defenses this year, throwing at least 2 touchdowns in every single game this season. With Melvin Gordon, Allen, Mike and Tyrell Williams, Rivers has no shortage of options in the passing game.

Deshaun Watson – Houston Texans – $5,700

Analysis: Watson can’t seem to get over $6K despite throwing 17 TDs with just 7 interceptions with 268 rushing yards and a score. He’s averaging 22.2 fantasy points per game this season and gets a defense that is perceived to be tough, despite the Redskins allowing the 9th most fantasy points to QBs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,600

Analysis:  I am on the Fitzmagic train this week as they take on the lowly Giants, coming off an upset win of the 49ers on Monday night. Fitz has four, 400-yard passing games this season, and raises his floor with his rushing ability. The reason Fitz is a GPP play this week is his inability to protect the ball and threat of being benched for Jameis Winston.

Eli Manning – New York Giants – $5,200

Analysis: This one pains me to even type, but Eli Manning is in a position to score more fantasy points than he’s scored all season long against Tampa Bay this week. Tampa is fourth in fantasy points allowed to QBs, second in fantasy points allowed to WRs, and second in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Eli has all the weapons in the world to be a juggernaut this week. But it’s Eli, and he’s never to be trusted for cash.

RUNNING BACKS

Melvin Gordon – Los Angeles Chargers – $8,900

Analysis: Gordon falls here because he’s the highest-priced RB with one of the worst home/road splits narratives in his career. I will always love Gordon on the road, but at home, as the highest-priced RB of the entire slate, it’s hard for me to consider him as a worthy play in cash, despite Denver’s inability to stop the run, allowing 131 yards per game on the ground. There’s always a threat of Austin Ekeler taking carries as well, making the volume less than I would like to pay for in cash.

Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $8,200

Analysis: Ezekiel Elliott just got done smashing the Eagles and some may argue Kamara is a better all-around running back. He’s getting the Eagle’s pass-funnel tendencies’ price in the highest projected scoring game of the slate. Philly will be in desperation mode for the playoffs, and need a win, but Kamara and the Saints are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. Kamara is a GPP based on his difficult rushing matchup and his time share with Mark Ingram.

Jalen Richard – Oakland Raiders – $4,300

Analysis: Never trust a Raider in cash (yet, I am recommending Seth Roberts this week?). The Raiders will be without Martavis Bryant and Jordy Nelson, Doug Martin is a disaster, leaving Richard, who has 32 targets and 30 catches in his last 5 games, as a viable option as a value play in GPPs. The Cardinals allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, including an average of 4 catches for 42 yards per game through the air.

Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans – $4,000

Analysis: Just in case Dion Lewis, who is getting the majority of the carries between the 20s, can’t quite get in the endzone, you can go TD or bust with Derrick Henry, whose touchdown regression has been trending up with three straight trips to the end zone.

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November 17 by

NFL – Cash Game Index – Week 11

I messed up last week and forgot to talk about my Week 9 cash game lineups.

Well, let’s just say, coupled with Week 10’s worst outing of the year, it wasn’t profitable. GPPs saved me in Week 9, but in Week 10, it was a total loss.

Josh Rosen cracked my cash game lineup and I couldn’t make myself go to Mariota. Even though I said I loved RSJ earlier in the week, I somehow got to Vernon Davis…and then Kareem Hunt was a total joke.

Basically those 3 moves botched my day. With Mariota and RSJ? Win.

My biggest flaw was having to choose between all of the top running backs. I loved all of them and made the decision to drop down to Hunt and Kamara over Gurley and Gordon (played them in all my GPPs instead).

All of my GPP lineups failed to cash, but they would’ve easily made my day in cash game contests.

It is what it is.

For the season in cash, I am at a 50% success rate at 5-5. Hopefully we can get back on track in Week 11. For cash games, I feel like things are pretty straight forward in a couple of spots, which I always like.

Enough banters, let’s talk football!

QUARTERBACKS

Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – $6,500

Analysis: Brees at home against a pass funnel defense in the main slates’ highest projected scoring game? Yes, please. The Eagles are decimated with injuries at the cornerback position and have been getting waxed all season long to the tune of 285 passing yards and 1.33 touchdown passes per game allowed, good for 10 overall in fantasy points allowed to QBs. But the Eagles haven’t faced one of the best offenses in the game, especially not one that is throwing for 287 yards per game and scoring 36 points per game.

Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles – $6,300

Analysis: The Eagles are coming off a crushing lost to division foe Dallas and has to continue its hard stretch of schedule in New Orleans this week, where the Saints have been crushing opposing backfield, but are a sieve for passing attacks, allowing 296 yards passing per game and are second in the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs. With a spread larger than a touchdown now, Wentz will have to throw, throw, throw and utilize his shiny, new weapon in Golden Tate even more in Week 11. Truthfully, it’s between Wentz and another QB for me in cash this week.

Marcus Mariota – Tennessee Titans – $5,500

Analysis: I should’ve got to Mariota last week. Now he’s priced up after two stellar affairs, but he again is in a healthy spot, indoors and appears to actually be healthy for the first time all season. The Colts are allowing 286 yards and 1.67 TDs per game to QBs this season. This may not be where I go in cash personally, but he’s worthy based on how well he’s playing, his improved health and rushing floor.

Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $5,200

Analysis: I never thought there would be a day when I would have 3 Dallas Cowboys on the Cash Game Index…You gotta be a subscriber to see who the other two are. But here we are and we have Amari Cooper to thank for this. Dak has had fantasy outputs of 29, 22, 16 and 21 the past four weeks and now he gets a juicy matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, in a dome. The Falcons are 3rd in fantasy points allowed to QBs this season, allowing 305 yards and just over 2 TD passes per game to QBs.

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November 16 by

CFB – Power 5 – Week 12

Alabama is playing The Citadel this week.

For as good and hyped up Alabama is, the Tide lose so much respect from me for playing such a shit team, and playing said team this late in the season. Teams with such a stranglehold on the top 4 spots of the College Football Playoff should have some kind of penalty against them for this kind of scheduling.

I understand Alabama is the cream of the crop in college football, but I think they need to show their clout instead of taking the easy way out.

This is an unpopular opinion I am sure, but I am not refuting how great ‘Bama is, I am just saying teams like Bama shouldn’t be playing games this easy this late in the year, if at all.

Anyway, it’s Week 12 in college football, and the regular season is almost over. The good thing for us in DFS is that college football will at least last through January and will feature all kinds of slates during bowl season. DailyOverlay will keep you covered throughout bowl season as well.

But let’s focus on this week and hopefully we all make a little dough.

QUARTERBACKS

Will Grier – West Virginia – $10,100

Analysis: Highest-priced quarterback in the highest projected O/U of the early slate. Oklahoma State’s defense has been getting roasted, but the Mountaineers are barely favored in this game. This will be a recurring theme this week. Oklahoma State is allowing 31 points per game and 255 yards passing.

Ian Book – Notre Dame – $9,000

Analysis: Notre Dame is only favored by 10 points in this game, and that seems awfully generous for Syracuse. I think Notre Dame is above and beyond better than Syracuse, whose early regular season success is still following them apparently. Syracuse is allowing 261 yards and 27 points per game. Book also provides some dual-threat capability, raising his floor and ceiling with rushing yards.

Taylor Cornelius – Oklahoma State – $8,600

Analysis: The other side of the West Virginia/Oklahoma State late slate hammer is Cornelius, who was about 2-feet short on a 2-year throw from upending Oklahoma. Clearly, he’s not the greatest QB in the world, but that doesn’t really matter in DFS where we just want guys who will put up points thanks to high volume and tons of plays. Cornelius is part of a game with a 72.5 O/U and only a spread of -4.5 favoring WVU. Lots of respect for Oklahoma State in this one, according to Vegas.

Adrian Martinez – Nebraska – $7,500

Analysis: Attacking Michigan State through the air is about the only way a team will be successful. Sparty smothers the run, but opens the door up for passing attacks. Michigan State is allowing 255 yards passing per game, and even that number has come down a bit from the start of the year. Martinez can make things happen through the air with two of the better receivers in the Big 10 and scoring fantasy points with his legs if he can find space this week.

Jawon Pass – Louisville – $5,900

Analysis: Basically, I expect North Carolina State to run the table considering Louisville is the worst team on the slate against the run, allowing 42 points per game and 282 yards rushing per game. I like Pass to…well, pass, a lot in this game and also score some points with his legs, too as I fully expect Louisville to be playing from way behind at some point.

Value Play

Kansas State Quarterback vs. Texas Tech

Analysis: This week I am adding some value plays to consider, something I should’ve been doing all season. I have found in my roster construction I am really having to find one or two guys leading up to lock, that I like for value. When selecting players for this write-up this week, I haven’t really factored that part in. So for this week, hopefully the value plays here open up that salary to jam in your favorite core plays.  Oh yea, this is about Kansas State. We don’t know who the starter is yet, but whomever is in will be able to throw and pass against one of the worst defenses on the slate and will get a chance at a ton of extra plays with the bump in pace that Texas Tech brings. So, keep the names Skylar Thompson and Alex Delton in your minds this week.

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November 15 by

NFL – Cash Game Index – Week 10

Fresh off a bye week and a trade for Amari Cooper, things were starting to look toward improvement for the Cowboys.

Then Monday night against the Titans happened, the same ol’ shit.

I don’t know what the Cowboys need to do moving forward with their on-field personnel, but Jason Garrett has to go. The coach refuses to make adjustments, refuses to take chances and doesn’t dial up plays for Dak to be successful more consistently. Yes, i am also starting to waiver on whether Dak is actually a good quarterback, too, but I want to see how he does moving forward with Amari Cooper getting more comfortable with the offense.

There’s a stat out there about the Cowboys and handing the ball to Zeke around 25 times per game or more. Their record is ridiculous, and somehow, he continues to get dropped from the offense at weird, inopportune times.

There’s no flair to this offense and without Sean Lee, the defense flounders because they don’t know how to adjust properly without him.

I wanted the Cowboys to lose every game the rest of the way, but with the first-round pick gone, they might as well try to win the wide open NFC East and Garrett can keep his stupid job for another season.

Now on to Week 10…

QUARTERBACKS

Philip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers – $6,000

Analysis: The Raiders are in tank mode, so it’s Chargers onslaught time. Oakland is 7th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and Rivers and the Chargers are averaging 27.5 points per game and are favored by nearly 10 points in a game with a 50-point total.

Tom Brady – New England Patriots – $6,000

Analysis: The Pats are getting the Titans on a shorter week than normal and I am not trusting this Titans defense as anything more than average. Let’s see how they do against an efficient offense that can put up lots of points. Gronk likely isn’t going to play, but Sony Michel is returning. Brady still has James White, Julian Edelman, and Josh Gordon operating the remaining parts of the field. Brady isn’t afraid to throw it to anyone on his team, and $6K sticks out for a price for the GOAT.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,800

Analysis: Without A.J. Green, I am not sure that Dalton is someone I will go to in cash. The Saints are the worst team in the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Dalton is under $6 this week and are facing a team coming off a big win over the Rams. With that said, this could be a letdown spot for the Saints, and even if the Saints are the Saints we’ve seen, then Dalton and the Bengals would be likely playing from behind and having to throw a ton.

Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks – $5,700

Analysis: It’s November and that means it’s Russell Wilson time for fantasy football. He is in the second meeting against the Rams, which typically means scores are lower. But this is the Rams’ offense we are talking about here and this game scored more than 60 points last time out. Russell has thrown 11 TDs in his past four games and he’s flashed some rushing ability. With Chris Carson likely to miss this week, it will be the Mike Davis, Russell Wilson and David Moore show.

Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts – $5,500

Analysis: I guess I hadn’t been following Andrew Luck as well as I should. Here’s his touchdown passes for the last 5 games – 4, 3, 4, 4, 3. That’s a total of 21 TDs in that span. Now he gets Jacksonville pricing, which is really inaccurate this year because the Jags aren’t this dominant force they have been, and it’s likely they are without A.J. Bouye once again.

Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns – $5,400

Analysis: This is a great bounce back spot for the Browns as they host the Atlanta Falcons. This offense already looked better with new OC Freddie Kitchens at the helm. Mayfield has lots of talent around him and he’s more than capable of getting the ball to his receivers. He can run when he needs as well. The Falcons are 3rd overall in fantasy points allowed to QBs. This game has a 50.5 total with the Falcons favored by less than 5. The Falcons are giving up 28 points per game and an average of 304.3 passing yards per game.

Josh Rosen – Arizona Cardinals – $4,800

Analysis: Another new OC making outlooks improved for their current team and situation. Arizona OC Byron Leftwich was making sure Rosen was targeting his core skills players often and with swiftness. While teams underperform against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, this is more of a volume, opportunity based play with upside in a game featuring a 50-point total against a team that has allowed an average of 302 yards passing per game.

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November 9 by

CFB – Power 5 – Week 11

We are getting down to the end of the college football regular season. And that is evident not only by the month of the year, but because College Football Playoff rankings have been released.

I don’t know if there was anyone surprised by the revelation of the top 4 teams in the country.

And I am damn certain there’s not a team in the country that can beat Alabama.

Last year, I didn’t think Alabama should’ve even made the playoff.

So what do I know?

I’m just a dude sitting behind a computer recommending DFS plays.

Anyway, it’s Week 11, let’s freaking go!

QUARTERBACKS

Kyler Murray – Oklahoma – $10,800

Analysis: Let me preface this pick by saying that if you can figure out before lock on who the Navy starting QB will be or which QB will get the stats, that’s where you are going to find awesome value this week. I for one, have no clue who that will be as of right now. So with that, I’ll just shoot up the pricing guide and take Kyler Murray No. 1 overall this week against rival Oklahoma State in Bedlam. OU is coming off a lucky win against Tech and OSU got caught napping against Baylor. But this series always provides fireworks, no matter who is good or bad. Murray has been awesome and is certainly making his case for the Heisman of DFS, averaging 38 fantasy points per game this season. Lock button in cash. Oh, and this total is hovering around 80 points.

Gardner Minshew – Washington State – $8,700

Analysis: Washington State has a great defense and a potent Air Raid offense. They have actually been in some low-total games this year. This week happens to be one of the higher totals for them as they travel to take on Colorado. Minshew is nearly a lock button behind Kyler Murray based on volume alone plus pricing. WSU barely runs the ball and Minshew will throw, throw, throw, adding a small floor to his fantasy output with his legs. Washington State is averaging nearly 400 yards passing per game and Colorado has yet to face an offense this season even close to the pace and frequency of passing that the Cougs maintain in a single game.

Jordan Ta’amu – Ole Miss – $8,000

Analysis: Assuming he is healthy and plays all game, Jordan Ta’amu is one of the sneakier plays on the board based on price and matchup. A&M seems daunting, but they have allowed more than 20 points to multiple teams this season. Ole Miss is a very potent offense with passing weapons all around, averaging 540+ yards of offense per game. A&M is certainly stout against the run, but has leaks in its pass defense. The tempo and passing frequency I expect from Ole Miss should keep the Aggies on their heels defensively. Aggies have allowed an average of 243 passing yards per game, which is skewed a bit by lesser offenses earlier in the year. Ta’amu also can make magic happen with his legs, adding a stellar floor and ceiling to his projected fantasy performance.

Kellen Mond – Texas A&M – $7,400

Analysis: I couldn’t pull the trigger on South Carolina’s QB last week despite the numbers saying Ole Miss is a great target for passing attacks. They have been a sieve all year, but you have to go with boosting a lesser passing QB in these situations because the defenses are that bad. Mond is a guy who struggles passing the ball sometimes, but mostly to superior defensive opponents. He can run if he needs, but with this game having a projected total near 70, Mond has a higher ceiling than normal, thanks in part by Ole Miss’ lack of ability to defend the pass, surrendering nearly 290 yards and 36 points per game.

Taylor Cornelius – Oklahoma State – $7,700

Analysis: Our very own Matt Butler has his own shade regarding Cornelius and his beloved OSU Cowboys. And sure, he’s been disappointing this season. But this is DFS and the Big 12, where defenses really don’t matter (because they barely exist). This Bedlam game, as mentioned above, is at a 79 O/U. You want to play guys in this game and a cheaper QB with volume and rushing ability below $8K certainly screams value.

BONUS: Nick Fitzgerald – Mississippi State – $5,700

Analysis: Eighteen, 16, 23, 28, 20, 16, 15 and 19. Those are Fitzgerald’s rushing attempts in all of his games this season. He’s averaging 24 pass attempts and 2.4 touchdowns per game this season. His road splits are massively lower than his home splits, and he and his offense take on Alabama in Tuscaloosa. So you probably scoffed at me when you saw his name pop up knowing his matchup. Well, it is a little crazy, but we are talking tournaments here and Fitz is price adjusted for his matchup. But you are getting a $9K QB for about half the price. The spread is around 25 points in favor of Bama. I understand all signs point against Fitzgerald, but if you are looking for value for 15-20 points, his price allows you to stack, stack, stack and he will barely be owned. I do admit that this is truly a dart throw, but my gut and instincts suggest he sticks out like a sore thumb due to his price and volume.

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November 8 by

NFL – GPP Index – Week 10

Well the sweat for the Midterm election results is over.

But now we must focus our votes to Week 10 of the NFL season.

Yes, we are in double-digit weeks for the NFL season already. Season-long regular seasons are coming to an end, but DFS has many, many strong weeks remaining.

And as a Cowboys fan…..see Thursday’s Cash Game Index for a short Cowboys’ rant.

But let’s get moving on this week’s GPP plays.

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,200

Analysis: Price continues to rise, at home, facing a washed Cardinals team. Don’t forsee him having to do much this week, but with his matchup and pricing, should go underowned and always has that 30-point upside.

Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – $6,400

Analysis: Similar boat as Mahomes – shouldn’t need to do too much to get the win here as they host the Miami Dolphins and QB Brick, I mean, Brock Osweiler. But again, if Miami keeps it close, Rodgers will smash.

Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – $6,200

Analysis: Price jumped dramatically for Matt Ryan as he takes on the Browns on the road. Had his price stayed below $6K, he would be a cash play, but my rule is not to play Matt Ryan on the road outdoors at an eleveated rpice.

Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams – $6,100

Analysis: I like for the Rams/Seahawks game to shoot, but I also like a Rams onslaught here after losing their first game of the season to the Saints last week. Either way, Goff has a ton of weapons and this team has the potential score a ton of points each week.

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November 7 by

NFL – Cash Game Index – Week 9

The Week 8 trade deadline came and went this week, and we had a lot of notable deals that could have fantasy implications moving forward.

Golden Tate dealt to the Eagles.

Demaryius Thomas dealt to the Texans.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix dealt to the Redskins.

Ty Montgomery dealt to the Ravens.

In Week 9, we get our first glimpse of the other big trade to happen within the last two weeks when Amari Cooper makes his Cowboys’ debut.

I am eager to dive into Week 9, where we have our first O/U game hitting the 60 mark, but first we gotta talk about my Week 8 cash game lineup on DraftKings.

Let me just say, I didn’t avoid all of the landmines and still somehow managed to get a comfortable win, even though it wasn’t very comfortable most of the day.

And I made what almost turned into a brutal mistake during the slate.

So again, my screen shots aren’t loading to the site properly for whatever reason, so here’s what I had in cash this week. If you doubt it for some reason, you are welcome to hit me up on Twitter @hotdogdaily_DFS and ask for proof. I’ll gladly show you. I just want to be transparent.

QB – Aaron Rodgers
RB 1 – Todd Gurley
RB 2 – James Conner
WR 1 – Doug Baldwin
WR 2 – Courtland Sutton
WR 3 – Martavis Bryant
TE – O.J. Howard
FLEX – Kareem Hunt
D/ST – Pittsburgh Steelers

Total Points – 152.44
Season Record – 5-3

Analysis: My biggest mistake was swapping Jared Goff right before the Packers/Rams game locked and getting to Aaron Rodgers. I had the perfect salary to do it and figured I would get all of the Green Bay passing exposure with Rodgers. Then two rushing touchdowns happened and Jared Goff went bonkers, which I felt confident would happen all week. I got on Sutton to fit in Gurley, Conner and Hunt. I figured the Broncos would try to really showcase Sutton because I felt they were on their way to trading away Demaryius Thomas. More on Sutton later, but Bryant and Baldwin really flat out stung. I had Njoku and Bryant in my lineup at one point, but I am so glad I didn’t have two dinosaur eggs in this lineup. It all worked out in the end at least.

Now let’s take a look at Week 9, where we have lots of stacked options at both QB, RB and WR, especially. A couple of things to keep watch on prior to lock this week is Dalvin Cook and Melvin Gordon’s statuses. Should news come down that Cook plays and Gordon sits, then Austin Ekeler becomes a great cash game play to save money.

Anyway, let’s attack this slate hard and wins some damn money!

WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans – $8,300

Analysis: No Will Fuller, Keke Coutee, if he plays, will be locked up with Chris Harris and Demaryius Thomas is learning a new offense. This is a prime position for Hopkins, whose targets increase by an average of nearly 3 per game when Fuller is out. Denver is middle of the road in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, but they are giving up more than a TD per game to the position. Hopkins is an other-worldly talent who is matchup proof, especially without Will Fuller.

Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings – $8,900

Analysis: It’s starting to get almost out of hand to pay for Adam Thielen. He’s the highest-priced receiver on the slate, meaning you can always fade him to build better security around your team. The Vikings are facing the Lions, who were just shelled by Seattle wideouts last week. Thielen is going for an NFL record 9th straight game with at least 100 yards receiving and should avoid Darius Slay this week.

Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons – $7,900

Analysis: Averaging nearly 20 DK points per game and hasn’t scored a touchdown yet. He will be my highest owned receiver of the week on the road against Washington, who doesn’t use Josh Norman to shadow. Even if he did, I would still trust Julio to make mincemeat in between the 20s.

Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints – $7,600

Analysis: Thomas is egregiously under-priced for a ball hawk in a game with the week’s highest projected total. Thomas moves all over the field and I love him this week against the Rams, that has got flamed by No. 1 receivers all year long.

Brandin Cooks – Los Angeles Rams – $6,700

Analysis: REVENGE GAME! I am so in love with Cooks this week, back in New Orleans and I feel gets aided by the return of Cooper Kupp. Cooks seems boom or bust, but with New Orleans favored in this game, we might end up seeing an increase in passing plays from the Rams. That would bode well for Cooks, who has had tons of success in this stadium and on its playing surface. Cooks should avoid Lattimore at  times and he can easily break a big gain for a big game.

Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns – $6,500

Analysis: Having any exposure to any Browns in cash sounds insane. But the Browns are going to have opportunities to score with the Chiefs coming into town as big favorites. This Browns coaching staff is gone and Gregg Williams has taken over HC duties. We really don’t know what to expect, but I find it hard-pressed that Landry’s double-digit targets don’t continue this week.

Devin Funchess – Carolina Panthers – $5,600

Analysis: The integration of D.J. Moore could certainly eat into Devin Funchess’ production moving forward, I still like Funchess to command 8-10 targets against one of the worst defensive secondaries in the league, allowing the second-most DK fantasy points per game with 197 yards per game and 1.86 TDs allowed per game.

Marvin Jones – Detroit Lions – $5,300

Analysis: You might be worried about Jones coming off a big game facing Xavier Rhodes. Well, I am not. Rhodes is nursing an ankle injury and Jones has blasted Rhodes in the past. It remains to be seen if Rhodes actually follows Jones or Kenny Golladay, who clearly is the best receiver on this team, athletically.

TreQuan Smith – New Orleans Saints – $4,200

Analysis: I am merely playing the O/U game here. I like D.J. Moore a lot at a similar price point, but Smith has been getting all kinds of targets downfield and has come into his own as a No. 3 receiving option behind Thomas and Alvin Kamara. I have taken zeros from Martavis Bryant and Jermaine Kearse this year and have cashed, so why not TreQuan?

Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos – $3,900

Analysis: Cash game lock of the week. Sutton offers increased volume against a poor Texans pass defense and his overall talent level makes Sutton a great play in cash games this week.

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November 2 by