After Monday night’s feast, I am ready for a second, maybe even a third helping as we look to stuff ourselves with all the fantasy football we can handle in Week 12.
Rams/Chiefs was everything we thought it would be, gravy included, and I am so ready for more!
This is a special Thanksgiving edition of the Value Index, so enjoy the holidays, eat some food, watch football, play DFS and use our content for the 3-game Thursday slate without charge.
Good luck this week!
Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – $6,700
Analysis: Highest-priced QB of the team that is one of the top-scoring offenses in the NFL. Brees is averaging 30 fantasy points per game at home compared to just 21 points per game on the road. In this game earlier in the season, Brees put up 43 fantasy points. Other than against Cleveland, Brees has scored at least 30 fantasy points in every home game this season. The Falcons are giving up the third-most fantasy points to QBs this season.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – $6,100
Analysis: The Saints are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to QBs this season. The Falcons have no shortage of weapons. Ryan also scored 43 fantasy points in this matchup earlier in the year. Ryan will offer tons of value on a slate where you will want to stuff the studs in your lineups this week.
Mitch Trubisky – Chicago Bears – $5,900
Analysis: I am not really sure that Trubisky even plays this week, which would make backup Chase Daniel an intriguing punt play at $4,400. I am kind of hoping that happens just to make things interesting. The Lions are 10th in fantasy points allowed to QBs this season and Trubisky provides a high floor and ceiling with his rushing ability, should he get the starting nod. This game just happened a couple of weeks ago and Trubisky and the Bears won someone $1 million. Can lightning strike twice on the road in Detroit on Thanksgiving?
Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $8,300
Analysis: I will be forced to play Zeke this week, but he’s likely the lower-owned back out of him and Kamara, who decimated the Atlanta Falcons in Week for 37 fantasy points. Mark Ingram is back in the picture but that shouldn’t keep Kamara from getting out in open space. A Saints onslaught is fully in store this week.
Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints – $6,100
Analysis: Ingram didn’t get in on the action in this game in Week 3. With that said, the Falcons allow the most fantasy points to running backs and Ingram is going to see plenty of carries and maybe even a few targets.
Tevin Coleman – Atlanta Falcons – $5,200
Analysis: The Saints are one of the best teams against the run, but with this being a 3-game slate and Tevin Coleman seeing most of the work out of the backfield, his high floor due to volume may be enough to keep your lineups in the running this week. His involvement in the passing game is where he could really break the slate. The Saints are allowing 5 catches for 41 yards per game this season.
Theo Riddick – Detroit Lions – $4,500
Analysis: Kerryon Johnson is doubtful, Marvin Jones is likely not to play, leaving Theo Riddick as a top value option this week against the Bears due to his PPR abilities. He may not accumulate the yards, but the targets and volume should be there against the Bears, who are 12th in catches allowed to opposing running backs.
Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints – $8,900
Analysis: TreQuan Smith took all the fantasy glory last week, so why not feed Michael Thomas this week? Thomas is averaging 11 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road. The Falcons are 7th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Thomas went for 10-129-0 in these teams’ first meeting.
Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons – $8,300
Analysis: Julio is Julio and he now has 3 touchdowns in his past three games after not having one in his first 8. Julio was held in check in these teams’ first meetings with a 5-96-0 line. Calvin Ridley did all the damage in this game with 3 touchdowns. The Saints are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, allowing 15 catches, 216 yards and 1.60 touchdowns per game.
Kenny Golladay – Detroit Lions – $6,400
Analysis: No Marvin Jones, no Kerryon Johnson, so who is Matt Stafford supposed to throw to, Bruce Ellington? Golladay has 13 and 14 targets in each of his last two games. His lines are 6-78-1 and 8-113-1, with the first line being against Chicago. Now he gets them indoors, on Thanksgiving where Calvin Johnson shined every year.
Tre’Quan Smith – New Orleans Saints – $4,700
Analysis: This one is easy – play Tre’Quan at home and/or indoors. He will be a popular play this week considering his huge breakout last Sunday and his price. With that said, I think this could turn into a Michael Thomas or Kamara game based on the injuries on the Falcons defensive side of the ball.
Trey Quinn – Washington Redskins – $3,500
Analysis: In his debut last week, the rookie had 4 catches for 45 yards, even with Colt McCoy at QB. Should we see Crowder and others sit in this contest, Quinn makes a great bet on play based on talent, usage, price and lack of options on the Redskins’ side of the ball.
Michael Gallup – Dallas Cowboys – $3,700
Analysis: I hate to exploit the narrative as a reason for liking this play, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that Michael Gallup should be in uniform this week, on Thanksgiving, less than a week after his own brother committed suicide. How special would it be to see him have a big game and/or score a touchdown to honor his brother on what will be a difficult holiday to celebrate.
Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins – $4,700
Analysis: #FREEJORDANREED. Colt McCoy has unlocked the power of Reed it appears and now I think it’s safe to fire up Reed with confidence moving forward, so long as he’s healthy. The pass catchers are limited for Washington and the Cowboys are 12th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, giving up nearly 6 catches per game.
Rico Gathers – Dallas Cowboys – $2,500
Analysis: I have no insight here, but without Geoff Swaim in this lineup, I can see a scenario where Gathers gets a couple more targets in the red zone. They need to free this damn guy, he’s too tall and athletic not to be used more in the passing game. #FreeRico, get it trending on Twitter!