Entries by Stephen Monahan

CFB – Power 5 – Week 10

It’s a big week in college football this week and let me say this….

LSU will beat Alabama. Texas Tech beats Oklahoma.

We will see if those statements age well or not, but in the meantime, we have 11 games on DraftKings’ early slate of games, up one from the usual 10.

More than half of the games have projected totals of 60 or more points, and you could almost make a case that West Virginia and Texas, should be at 60 also.

Speaking of West Virginia and Texas, outside of one player, no one else makes this weeks’ list. I love Texas in a bounce back spot at home and to hit the over in this game. I like West Virginia also, but they each have tons of receiving weapons and I can’t really narrow it down to one player. Simms, Sills and Jennings could all go off, and picking one of them is troublesome, so I say play them all. Same goes for the Texas receivers Humphrey and Johnson.

I will be stacking that game vehemently. But where else will I be attacking and stacking?

Another situation to monitor is Georgia Tech. Taquon Marshall is supposed to start, but Oliver is supposed to play snaps. Are they both taking a chance on in tournaments? Absolutely. I just hope they don’t each eat into each other’s production. However, it will be hard to stomach playing them.

Let’s take a look. Good luck in Week 10!

QUARTERBACKS

Dwayne Haskins – Ohio State – $9,800

Analysis: Coming off a blowout upset to Purdue, this is a get right spot for Ohio State at home. Angry Buckeyes getting a Nebraska team allowing 33 points per game and 272 yards passing per game. Ohio State’s running game is hit or miss thus Haskins will be given the green light to light up the scoreboard, where he’s scored 7 more fantasy points per game at home and the projected total is at 72, second highest of the slate.

Will Grier – West Virginia – $9,100

Analysis: If I can’t decide on the receiver I want to play, a naked Will Grier can suffice this week against the Longhorns. While we want to target players in games with high totals, you also want to play guys in games you feel comfortable saying the score goes over the projected O/U. I feel that way this week as West Virginia travels to Austin to take on the Longhorns. Texas was lit up by Oklahoma State last week, and West Virginia has an even more powerful passing attack, led by Grier and his three beefcake receivers (Sills, Simms and Jennings).

Sam Ehlinger – Texas – $8,600

Analysis: Ehlinger gets it done with his arms and legs, raising his floor and ceiling. The Mountaineers are staunch against the pass, but those numbers are a bit skewed considering the competition WVU has faced in non-conference and having faced Kansas already, too. Texas also is the favorite in this game, and if they are to win, it will be on the arm and shoulders of Ehlinger.

Eric Dungey – Syracuse – $8,400

Analysis: Yes, Syracuse and Wake Forest has the highest projected-total of this early slate at 75.5 points. Syracuse is only favored by -4.5 points, another sign that these teams are evenly matched and likely to be able to move the ball and put up points. Dungey is that dual-threat QB we love to target in CFB DFS. Dungey is a $9K+ QB and he’s underpriced this week in the slate’s highest O/U game.

Adrian Martinez – Nebraska – $7,800

Analysis: Another dual threat quarterback here in a game with a high total. Martinez has two great receiving weapons to throw the ball to all over the field and we’ve come to learn that teams can throw on Ohio State at will, having allowed 241 passing yards per game.

Feleipe Franks – Florida – $5,300

Analysis: Franks is a value QB play against a run funnel team in the Missouri Tigers, who are gashed by opponent passing games. I don’t expect Franks to produce Dungey and Haskins numbers, but his dual-threat ability and price allow you to jam in lots of top guys in your lineups. For what it’s worth, despite Florida not being a pass-first team, Missouri has allowed 288 passing yards per game to opposing QBs.

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November 1 by

NFL – GPP Index – Week 9

Now we begin the second half of the NFL season…. It’s three weeks until Thanksgiving and we have 8 Fridays until Christmas. My daughter will be three during the week of Thanksgiving. Time. Slow. Down. Football season makes the second half of the year go by so quick (and if you’ve been with us awhile, […]

October 31 by

NFL – Cash Game Index – Week 8

I’ve been waiting a week to talk about the disaster that was this past weekend in my personal life, which ultimately caused my Week 7 demise. The dominoes, teetered, tilted, tipped and continued to fall from Friday all the way through Sunday night. So my wife and daughter both became ill Thursday night. My 2-year-old […]

October 26 by

CFB – Power 5 – Week 9

The back-end of the college football regular season starts this week as teams continue to jockey for position in their respective conferences. But first, I apologize for the delay in the Power 5’s publishing last week. I had to work late at home on some things for my full-time career and then my daughter got […]

October 25 by

NFL – GPP Index – Week 8

I am ready for Week 7 to be in my rear-view mirror.

I’ll explain more about my week leading up to Week 7 lineup construction in my Cash Game Index on Thursday.

I’ll leave Week 7 in the dust after Thursday, but am tabling that discussion for Week 8’s GPP Index, which will focus on another 10-game slate.

We have a lot of byes, games on Thursday, Monday and another dad-gum (Texas speak) London game. But I actually love that the London game isn’t on the main slate. It’s awful. Philly and Jacksonville? No thanks.

And at least we don’t have to worry about Julio Jones’ touchdown watch…until Week 9.

Byes this week – Cowboys, Falcons, Chargers, and Titans. Amari Cooper’s Cowboys debut will have to wait a week.

And with this GPP write up being so early in the week, who knows what news comes down the pipe between now and lock, more on that also coming up in the Cash Game Index later this week.

So, shall we get started on Week 8? Yes, please!

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,000

Analysis: Perhaps KC and Denver will be an exception to the rule, but typically division games fall under the projected total second time around. With Mahomes’ price being super elevated and the Chiefs playing at home, the toughest place to play in the NFL, I can’t consider Mahomes a cash-game play this week. Denver also is limiting opposing QBs fantasy points as they are a top-10 defense against QBs this season.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,200

Analysis: Is Andy Dalton over $6K? Yes? Then he’s a GPP play only, that’s my rule. It’s unfortunate because he gets the best matchup on the board – the Tampa Bay Bucs, who allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.

Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,100

Analysis: What I said about Mahomes applies to Roethlisberger against the Browns this week. IF this game was in Cleveland for Round 2, I wouldn’t even use Big Ben. BUT since he has the weapons and is at home, I can’t ignore his price and the upside he brings when he is playing a team at home.

Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,000

Analysis: Winston’s first two games have been excellent, but now his price is at the $6K price tag. He showed some mobility last week, even scoring a rushing touchdown, but that’s not usually his thing. IF he uses this legs more, he’s easily a cash game consideration each week. But I will defer to history with Winston’s legs. This week he gets the Bengals, who are 5th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. I won’t play Winston cash, but I love this game and certainly will be stacking it every which way as it has the third-highest O/U of the slate.

Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions – $5,600

Analysis: I weirdly like this Detroit/Seattle game as it has the fifth-highest total on the board this week. Considering I think two of the top-5 O/Us will fall in the under, I think this game has all the makings of a shootout, despite both defenses being in the bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to QBs. The Lions have 3 big receiver weapons and a potential breakout running back in Kerryon Johnson while the Seahawks have a smash mouth running attack and the Lions are the worst in rushing yards allowed in the league.

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October 24 by

College Football – Power Five – Week 8

One of these early main slates surely will NOT have Alabama as an option right?

I think it’s fair to say that it ruins the slate a bit to see Alabama in games against teams we know they are going to blow out, week after week. It takes away from college football DFS because we aren’t getting exposure to other teams and players in meaningful games.

That’s just my opinion and I likely don’t have much ground to stand on, especially with conference play in full force. ‘Bama likely will be on every slate moving forward as long as they are playing someone.

It’s already Week 8 in college football and we will once again focus this week’s Power 5 on the early DraftKings main slate. The evening slates aren’t very playable in my opinion, unless you are playing higher stakes. So I stick to the early side of things.

Last week, I went a little crazy with the picks. That’s usually never a good sign because it means I haven’t narrowed down my plays to 15-20 players and likely won’t. That also means I want to play everyone, and you just can’t.

This week is toned down though and have mostly stuck to the format with the exception of a couple of additions on top of the usual 15 players for the Power 5.

Keep the Texas Tech QB situation in mind this week. Jett Duffey is likely to start, but it’s not going to be known until close to kickoff. Even if he does, take it with a grain of salt. He’s not that good and can run. If he struggles, like he did last game, he will be yanked. Kansas is an easier opponent at least, so I think the likelihood he gets yanked is decreased. McClane Carter isn’t 100 percent either.

We have a lot to digest and little bit less time to do it as these games kick off at 11 a.m. central on Saturday. So I will keep things simple and straight to the point for this week. Good luck to all of you!

QUARTERBACKS

Steven Montez – Colorado Buffaloes – $7,300

Analysis: It’s really hard to pay up for QB this week, unless we get a definitive on Jett Duffey or McLane Carter for Tech. That’s where I would change my stance a bit. Montez is a guy who really disappointed last week against a bad USC team. If Shinault is out, I might fade him completely, but for now, in tournaments, despite a tough defensive matchup, Montez is literally going to be unowned but has upside with his arm and legs that he can use to upend Washington, who might have a hangover from last week’s loss to Oregon.

Jake Browning – Washington Huskies – $6,700

Analysis: With some concerns at RB, the Huskies might be leaning on Jake Browning a little more. He’s a once highly-regarded QB facing a Colorado team that hasn’t faced many who would even be considered good teams. Colorado. This game does have a 51+ O/U this week and teams have had success through the air against Colorado this season, despite them only giving up 220 yards passing per game.

Brady White – Memphis – $6,600

Analysis: As the prices get lower, the more I love QB. Starting with Brady White, who is in a game on a slate with the highest total on the board. The added bonus is his opponent is the Missouri Tigers, who operate against passing attacks with tunnels in their defense. Mizzou has allowed 30 points per game to opposing teams all the while allowing 300 yards passing yards per game.

Peyton Ramsey – Indiana – $6,100

Analysis: Even against good teams, Ramsey has been a model of consistency. He can throw, he can run and should be in a game where he will have to throw and throw because his team is playing catch up. Penn State can be a tough defense, but it also has leaks. Ramsey and the Hoosiers are two touchdown underdogs at home against the Lions, which isn’t an awful spread (almost fishy to me), meaning Penn State may have enough mistakes to keep Indiana in this ballgame. Either way, Ramsey should get the volume needed for fantasy production.

Jarrett Stidham – Auburn – $6,000

Analysis: Stidham, once a top-notch recruit, has struggled in Auburn this year. But we saw some life last week in a loss to Tennessee. This week’s matchup is the best for any QB on the slate as he and the Tigers take on Ole Miss, who is averaging 35 points allowed and 289 yards passing per game. The question remains, who the hell is he going to throw the ball to against a defense whose weakness is defending the pass?

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October 20 by

NFL – Cash Game Index – Week 7

Week 7 has reared its ugly head with the Broncos putting an ass whooping on the Arizona Cardinals, who might just be worse than the Buffalo Bills.

Speaking of ugly and the Bills, Nathan Peterman is starting this week, but can you play the Colts’ defense in cash?

Can you play any Saints against the Baltimore Ravens on the road?

Can you fade Todd Gurley?

Can you fade Adam Thielen?

These are some questions that you will need to figure out in cash games this week. Low and behold, I am here to help you make those decisions.

This week we will focus on running backs in the free preview section, but to access the remainder of the article, you will have to either sign up for the 7-day free trial and/or subscribe!

Before we get to our Week 7 selections, let’s review Week 6 a bit.

In cash last week, I scored 180.80 points and DIDN’T use Todd Gurley after all. That was not something I really wanted to do, but felt I needed the salary relief to get to where I wanted to go. Here’s my roster:

QB – Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay – $5400
RB1 – James Conner – Pittsburgh – $7,900
RB2 – Joe Mixon – Cincinnati – $7,500
WR1 – Julio Jones – Atlanta – $7,900
WR2 – Jarvis Landry – Cleveland – $6,600
WR3 – Chester Rogers – Indianapolis – $4,500
TE1 – Ricky Seals-Jones – Arizona – $2,700
Flex – Latavius Murray – Minnesota – 25.80
DST – Dallas Cowboys – $2,300

Total Score – 180.80

RUNNING BACKS

Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams – $9,800

Analysis: The 49ers are 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, giving up 27.80 PPG. San Fran is allowing just 78 yards rushing, but is averaging nearly 1 TD allowed per game, 9.5 targets and a shade over 6 catches per game to RBs. Cooper Kupp is out and with this being a road game, Gurley, who has fantasy outings of 39.5, 33.3, 25.6, 28.6, 32.3 and 26.7, could be called upon more than usual in the passing ga,e.

LeSean McCoy – Buffalo Bills – $5,600

Analysis: Call me crazy if you want, but this is the week for Buffalo to showcase Shady. And here’s why: 1. Trade deadline looming, gotta increase the value; 2. Nathan Peterman is starting, meaning McCoy could be used as a frequent safety valve; and 3. Shady has had 40 rushes, 8 targets and 5 catches in his past two games. The Colts are allowing just 89 yards rushing per game, but are allowing 9 targets and nearly 7 catches allowed per game to running backs. This game also will be on turf, providing a faster track for Shady.

Tarik Cohen – Chicago Bears – $5,100

Analysis: Is Tarik Cohen for real? If this was an Adam Gase or Jason Garrett offense, I would say no. But since he has Matt Nagy on his side, I think this progressive workload is for real and won’t change this week as the Bears host New England. Allen Robinson also is hurt and may not be playing. Bears will need to put up points to keep up with the Pats and Cohen should be an easy ADOT target to move the ball.

Peyton Barber – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $3,900

Analysis: Hard to believe Peyton Barber is a thing in Week 7 of the NFL season, but he got the work and paid off last week against Atlanta. What we have to keep in mind here though is that last week was because of Atlanta’s scheme against running backs, which is almost nonexistent. So I wouldn’t rush to play him and be cautiously optimistic of him keeping his snap count against the Browns, who are 8th overall in fantasy points allowed.

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October 19 by

NFL – GPP Index – Week 7

The next few weeks will feature smaller main slates due to scheduled games in London. Gag me. I would be very happy to hear the London games were nixed, but that’s not happening any time soon. But what is happening soon is Week 7 and for the GPP Index only, I will throw in a […]

October 17 by

NFL – Cash Game Index – Week 6

Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson. Matthew Stafford? Shit… All week I had Wilson in my cash lineup, but with the news of Marquez Valdes-Scantling entering the starting lineup, I felt I needed to get him and Matthew Stafford in my cash lineup. MVS was not on […]

October 12 by

College Football – Power Five – Week 7

Of course, a week removed from bashing running back options in college football DFS, Week 7 happens.

This week we have 10 games on the early slate, a new norm for DraftKings this SEZN (new spelling of the word season, apparently). And there are about 15 running backs I actually want to use. In previous weeks, it’s been a crap shoot, but we finally have workhorse backs to choose from.

The problem for the Power 5 this week, is there are also a ton of QBs and WRs I really want to recommend and use.

So the Power 5 has turned into the Power 27…well, not that many players, but it was very difficult to narrow down due to the guys below being in great games with great game scripts and matchups.

It was only a matter of time before a slate made me feel like I could play everyone…

So let’s dive in, shall we?

QUARTERBACKS

McKenzie Milton – UCF – $10,400

Analysis: This UCF/Memphis game has an O/U of 78….SEVENTY-EIGHT. Even if it goes under, lots of points are likely going to be scored. I don’t want to call the most expensive QB a lock, but his touchdown equity and rushing upside definitely make him the top play on the slate.

Trace McSorley – Penn State – $9,200

Analysis: Penn State can try to run the ball into a brick wall if it wants, but the way to beat Michigan State is through the air. The Spartans have allowed a ridiculously low 33.8 yards per game on the ground, but through the air? 305 YPG, the most per game of the slate. McSorley also has a safer floor with upside due to his rushing ability and is in a game with a 54 over/under.

Justin Herbert – Oregon – $8,100

Analysis: Washington and Oregon’s total feels awfully low. It’s at 57.5, but we have two good offenses battling it out and due to previous opponents, their yards passing and rushing allowed on defense seems a bit skewed. Herbert has been consistent and steady with around 20 fantasy points per game. He has tons of weapons around him and can run when needed. Also, Oregon has been averaging nearly 50 points scored per game, including blowouts.

Brady White – Memphis – $7,800

Analysis: Brady White is the quarterback for Memphis. Has he flashed huge upside this season? Not yet. He’s actually struggled a bit from time to time, but he’s going to have to pull it together against UCF if his team wants a shot at avenging two losses to UCF last season. Based on the potential for this game to shoot, White has to be considered despite lacking talent.

Jake Browning – Washington – $7,100

Analysis: It’s crazy to me that Jake Browning and Jarret Stidham (also on this slate), two prominent quarterbacks coming out of high school, are some of the cheapest QB options on the slate. I already have said I think this game total is low despite both teams averaging at least 275 yards passing per game. Browning and the Huskies have put up nearly 30 points per game.

Charlie Brewer – Baylor – $6,500

Analysis: I feel like the Longhorns are due to a little let down this week against Baylor, coming off their big win against rival Oklahoma. Charlie Brewer has taken the reigns as QB1 for the Baylor Bears, who are averaging 325 passing yards per game compared to Texas allowing 233 yards passing per game. Baylor should be playing behind in this one and without a definite running game, the Bears have nothing to do but throw the ball.

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October 11 by

NFL – GPP Index – Week 6

Week 5 in the NFL brought a huge Rams victory on the road with a gutsy 4th down call, an ugly Browns FG in overtime to win and avoid a second tie, a 63-yard field goal for the Panthers to beat the Giants, the Cowboys failing to go for it on 4th down in overtime […]

October 10 by

NFL – Cash Index – Week 5

Cash game scoring is astronomical on DraftKings this season. It looked like I was going avoid a sweat, then Alvin Kamara romped for a 44-yard touchdown late against the Giants…

The sweat was on, but my 208 in cash was able to hang out, but it felt like it was by just a thread.

It’s the second time this season my cash game lineup has scored above 200, which used to be enough to win you a large-field GPP.

But the league is changing, philosophies are changing and new rules are affecting that play.

We have 7 games with totals of 50 or better this week. SEVEN.

Pass catching running backs are the big key to giving your lineups high floors, but it also might be key to giving your team some ceiling. If this keeps up, you are going to have to be nearly perfect in your lineup construction.

But I was able to survive with a 208. Our image uploader is not working properly, so here’s the written version of my cash lineup:

QB – DeShaun Watson
RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott
RB2 – Gio Bernard
WR1 – Julio Jones
WR2 – Sterling Shepard
WR3 – Tyler Boyd
TE – David Njoku
FLEX – Tevin Coleman
D/ST – Chicago Bears

Analysis: I wrote last week that Russell Wilson might take me off of DeShaun Watson. Because of my salary, I almost went off script again and took Drew Brees. Taking Brees, and going off script, would’ve destroyed my lineups. But as I wrote last week, I and you have to stick to the script. And it paid off here. Tevin Coleman was the big dud. Ito Smith vultured a TD and he isn’t getting the usage we wanted. Julio continues to avoid the endzone at will (guess who is on this list again?). Watson and Elliott were great and the Bears DST was the easiest free square imaginable. Shepard and Boyd were in great spots and paid off big.

We are into Week 5 now that the Pats and Colts have completed their game on Thursday night. There’s lots of news that could come down between now and Sunday morning. So I want to preface that if something comes out that changes everything for a team or a player, then I might be forced to go off script.

We will see.

I am not sure which way I will go at RB at all. I have a list of QBs that I love below, but a few stand out above the others that I am interested in. Let’s take a look at this week’s cash game plays for full PPR sites. Good luck this week. Please send out screen shots to me for cash lineup questions or successes! Would love to hear from you.

 

 

 

 

 

QUARTERBACKS

Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers – $6,400

Analysis: Don’t mind that Drew Brees line against the Giants. Don’t mind that Dak Prescott line against the Giants. Brees has lots of weapons, Dak plays for the Cowboys. Enter Cam Newton and the Panthers coming off a bye and lots of rest, also at home. Cam soaks up all of the production the Panthers will likely have this week offensively. He rushes the ball, scores goalline TDs and of course throws the ball. Lots of high floor and ceiling possibilities. Just hope the offensive line holds up.

Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings – $6,000

Analysis: I think the Vikings/Eagles game goes undervalued this week. Cousins and the Vikings are averaging 277 yards passing per game. The Eagles are giving up 271 passing yards per game. See how those pieces fit? The Vikings defense has been blunderful (made up word) on the road, forcing the Vikings to throw and into shootouts. The Eagles are fifth in fantasy points allowed to QBs through 4 weeks. Diggs and Thielen should eat.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,900

Analysis: Dalton and the Bengals offense has been so much better this season, averaging 28 points per game and 303 passing yards. Miami is allowing 284 yards passing per game. The Bengals get Joe Mixon back this week, which should really open things up all over the field even without Tyler Eifert.

Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions – $5,700

Analysis: At home, in a high total, against a busted Green Bay secondary and facing Aaron Rodgers. This has all the makings of a shootout and the Packers won’t be able to cover all of his weapons running around all over the field.

Blake Bortles – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,500

Analysis: No Leonard Fournette means Blake Bortles is going to throw. Bortles stood out to me outside of the guy rounding out this list. Mostly because of his matchup, but then Fournette’s status sealed the deal for me with Bortles. He’s probably the chalk in cash games this week as the Jags travel to Arrowhead to take on Kansas City. The caution here is that it is Bortles, he’s going to be popular and he’s playing in a tough place to play. KC’s defense has been getting torched by QBs, allowing 328 yards passing and 2 TD’s per game. That’s a pretty ridiculous floor for Bortles if this is the average for KC.

Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks – $5,100

Analysis: Another QB on this list in a high total game. Coincidence? Wilson’s on this list mostly because his price seems so ridiculously low. The talent of DangerRuss and his usual price tag stand out here with this nearly sub-$4K tag. I know it’s the Rams, but you probably expect a mudhole to be stomped into Seattle by the Rams, right? Then what are the Seahawks going to do? Throw the damn ball. They have Doug Baldwin back and some capable pass catchers out of the backfield, but it is hard to trust this offense.

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October 5 by