We are hitting a two-week stretch of awful overall performance by our BvP candidates.
This week we have 10 Fs per DO’s grading format, and that is unacceptable. I could chalk it up to being engulfed in my new job, etc., etc., but I believe I won’t make excuses. This is just a time when BvP numbers, from my observations, take a back seat as the season winds down.
Teams are vying for playoff position and division titles, rosters have changed, weather has heated up, negative and positive regression favor the pitcher, and overall batter variance…the list goes on.
I have provided more picks than usual this week and tonight have another 8 bagger on tap, so after tonight, I have a new format for providing picks that I want to provide our readership. My picks will still be graded as a whole, but my picks will be based on favoring DFS formats rather than presented as a whole.
But before we get to that slight change for the rest of the year, make sure you check out all other BvP data at dailybaseballdata.com.
Jacoby Ellsbury – OF – Yankees – vs. Chris Archer
BvP: 18-for-28, 1 2B,1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 3 SB
Analysis: Tonight we have A-Rod’s final game in the majors. While I will likely play A-Rod based on the narrative, I will have more exposure to Mr. Ellsbury, who makes this week’s list for the second time (and burned us the first, but back to the well!). Jacoby has shown his age this season. While he hasn’t been awful, he’s been underwhelming at times. He’s coming off a hot streak and is facing Archer who has had a lot of struggles on the road this season. Ellsbury has done a little bit of everything against Archer in his career except hit a triple. Archer has just under a 6.00 ERA on the road, and I will certainly continue to ride that wave against Archer tonight.
Hanley Ramirez – 1B – Red Sox – vs. Patrick Corbin
BvP: 4-for-7, 2 2B, 3 BB
Analysis: Hanley used to be one of the most prolific hitters in the game, and his production against lefties is still stellar, he’s become an afterthought in DFS. The position change to 1B definitely has had some influence on that, but he’s blowing up lefties this season with a .412 wOBA and now he gets to light up Corbin at Fenway. P-Corb sports a .363 wOBA vs. RH bats to go along with a 38% hard contact rate. Fenway favors RH bats and Hanley will likely be underowned in tournaments.
Adrian Beltre – 3B – Rangers – vs. Anibal Sanchez
BvP: 7-for-10, 2 2B, 4 RBI
Analysis: My favorite play of the night. DFW has had something like 13 or 14 straight days of 100+ temperature. It was 103 during yesterday’s slugfest against the Rockies and the heat will continue today. While it will be closer to nightfall, temperatures will still hover around triple digits most of the night. Anibal is a fly-ball pitcher and that doesn’t bode well for his chances against the Rangers that have nearly 40 come-from-behind wins this season and have been one of the top offenses in the American League. Beltre is on a tear with hits in his last five including a slew of multi-hit efforts in that span. Beltre is a prime candidate in both cash and GPP contests.
Nelson Cruz – OF – Mariners – vs. Sean Manaea
BvP: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Analysis: A, B, B, A, Left, Right, Left, Left, Right, Right, Left. Did I get that Nintendo cheat code right? I bet I am close. Speaking of cheat codes, that’s what Nelson Cruz is against southpaws. With a .357 wOBA vs. RHs and a 1.63 HR/9 rate, plug in Cruz safely in all formats.
Josh Reddick – OF – Dodgers – vs. Ivan Nova
BvP: 5-for-13, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI
Analysis: Reddick hasn’t quite found his footing in LA quite yet, but he might be starting to turn things around. Dodger Stadium isn’t a great hitter’s park, but it does favor left-handed bats more than you would think. Reddick is dirt cheap on DraftKings today and probably across the industry. He’s going to be a low-owned outfielder in tournaments despite Nova’s .355 wOBA, 38% hard contact rate and 1.76 HR/9 rate.
Logan Forsythe – 2B and Evan Longoria – 3B – vs. C.C. Sabathia
Forsythe BvP: 8-for-18, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI
Longoria BvP: 26-for-67, 9 2B, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 13 BB, 1 BB
Analysis: Back to this game and I am eager to use this duo in a lot of lineups. CC’s numbers aren’t as bad as you would think. He doesn’t allow a lot of HRs or hard contact, but he has a 4.16 ERA and a 4.71 SIERA. He’s just under the 5.00 ERA mark at home, and I like that home split to favor Forsythe and his 7 hits in his past 3 games (and .300 road average). I also like CCs numbers to favor Longo, who has plastered CC for 6 HRs and a baker’s dozen of walks. Longo isn’t on a hot or cold streak at the moment, but he should feel very comfortable at the plate as tonight’s BvP Darling of the Night.
Yu Darvish – SP – Rangers – vs. Detroit Tigers
PvB: 9-for-49, 4 2B, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 15 Ks
Analysis: Are you scared of Yu tonight? I know you must be wondering why I would be recommending Yu after talking up Beltre against Sanchez using inflated temperature talk. Well, you don’t need to worry about Yu like you do Anibal. Yu is used to pitching in the hot summer and flyballs don’t matter when hitter’s can’t hit the ball. The Tigers are a mostly right-handed team and Yu shuts down RH bats (.262 wOBA and a 25% hard contact rate). Yu owns a glorious 12.31 K/9 rate while the Tigers whiff at a 21.6% clip. That number should be enhanced tonight with Yu on the hill. I expect him to be a tournament play and sport much lower ownership than Strasburg. I am comfortable using Yu in both cash and tournaments due to his strikeout potential keep his floor really high.