Happy Friday everyone! Hope this week has been kind to you so far!
Tonight we have a 15-game slate, including a game at Coors between the Rockies and Cubs. I think there’s a lot of value at the pitching position which should help you stack those Coors bats and some of the other higher-priced options.
Tonight I have two pitchers that I really like, so I am double-dipping on that position in my new format, but I am the leader in the clubhouse for expert pitcher picks, so I’m allowed to do whatever I want! (not really) #humblebrag.
Make sure you visit dailybaseballdata.com for all of tonight’s BvP stats around the league. Now time for picks!
Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros – vs. Wade Miley – DraftKings – $5,500
|BB% vs. L||ISO vs. L||Hard% vs. L||BAA vs. L||wOBA vs. L||wRC+ vs. L||Altuve BvP|
|11.3 %||0.235||39.4 %||0.387||0.46||195||11-for-18, 3 2B, 1 HR|
Analysis: If I remembered how smart it was to take Altuve versus a lefty, he would’ve been on this list Wednesday as well. Sleepless nights and a busy schedule must’ve been the reason for such a fault. But in recovery mode now, Altuve cracks the list against Wade Miley, who hasn’t looked sharp since being traded to Baltimore. Altuve has been a monster road hitter this season with a .404 batting average and a .490 OBP. His early numbers against Miley are solid, so even as the top-priced 2B, I will take Altuve all day in any contest tonight. He’s that. Damn. Good.
Andrew McCutchen – OF – Pirates – vs. Tom Koehler – DraftKings – $4,300
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||McCutchen BvP|
|9.5 %||0.163||33.9 %||0.255||0.326||105||4-for-7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB|
Analysis: Cutch may just be finally delivering for the Pirates and all of his season-long owners. MIred in a season-long slump, Cutch has four straight games with double-digit fantasy points, including three straight multi-hit efforts. As everything usually falls back or to the mean in baseball, this may be the time to just ride the McCutchen wave in daily until he gives you a reason not to trust him. He’s my cheapest pick for a bat tonight. Koehler has been tough on RH bats while McCutchen (as seen above) hasn’t dazzled against righties either. This is purely a hot streak call and I expect the Pirates to be able to ditch Koehler early in this game as well.
Charlie Blackmon – OF – Rockies – vs. Kyle Hendricks – DraftKings – $5,700
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Blackmon BvP|
|7.4 %||0.256||39.0 %||0.313||0.395||130||3-for-8, 2 BB|
Analysis: It’s not very often (if at all) to make a recommendation for a bat that costs more than a recommendation at the pitcher position. But here it is. At a whopping $5,700, Blackmon has certainly earned that price tag with his recent play, scoring 21 hits in his past 10 games, including 6 games with multiple hits and 4 of those were 3 hits or more! Now he gets to be back home in Coors and try to keep his hot stroke at the plate. Hendricks has been tough on lefties, but he also has noticeable home/road splits (and Coors isn’t safe for any pitcher, just ask Scherzer and Strasburg), so Blackmon in a cash game (or tournament) is safe for me.
Bryce Harper – OF – Nationals – vs. Julio Teheran – DraftKings – $5,300 – Darling of the Night
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Harper BvP|
|20.4 %||0.217||33.2 %||0.252||0.367||128||12-for-28, 3 2B, 5 HR, 4 BB|
Analysis: Bryce hasn’t been as realiable for cash games as he was to start the season, but i think he’s very trustworthy tonight for both contest types. He has 10 RBIs and a steal against Teheran as well. Julio is coming off the disabled list, so he may be limited thus Harper and his teammate below may not face Atlanta’s ace as much as they might on a regular scheduled start. Teheran still has his troubles with lefties, allowing 1.37 HR/9 and has a 37% hard contact rate. Harper does draw a lot of walks against RH pitching (see above), so his floor is always going to be higher than most people because of that and his elite hitting ability.
Daniel Murphy – 1B/2B – Nationals – vs. Julio Teheran – DraftKings $4,800
Analysis: While Harper is still reliable, I think Murph is even safer. The guy has destroyed pitching this season and should be in the running (along with Altuve) for MVP. He finally has 1B designation on DraftKings, so he becomes an even better play every night. Murph has a .348 batting average on the road this season to go along with 14 HRs (he only has 8 at home). Murphy is going to cost you some salary, but it’s almost like rostering guaranteed points in your cash games each and every night.
Christian Yelich – OF – Marlins – vs. Gerrit Cole – DraftKings – $5,200 – GPP Play of the Day
|BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R||Yelich BvP|
|10.7 %||0.216||44.0 %||0.326||0.401||152||5-for-11, 2 HR, 2 BB|
Analysis: There’s not a lot of times when Yelich is highly owned in daily fantasy baseball. He usually comes with an elevated price tag and just doesn’t have that sexy name attached to him. He’s so far had Gerrit Cole’s number, and Cole struggles with lefty bats this season, allowing a .344 wOBA and a 34% hard contact rate. I really like Cole tonight as a pitcher, but Yelich may be the guy who drops negative points on the Pirates’ starting pitcher.
Edinson Volquez – SP – Royals – vs. Minnesota Twins – DraftKings – $5,600
|6.54||1.04||0.31||4.95||4.56||30-for-137, 1 2B, 2 HR, 8 BB, 31 K|
Analysis: As long as Edinson is pitching at Kaufmann stadium, I am OK with using him a bit. He’s not going to light the world on fire with his strikeout potential, but he sure has had the Twins by the horns in recent memory. In 3 starts against Minny this season, he’s accumulated a 20.6 DK point average, that’s a heck of a value tonight if he can continue his success over the Twinkies.
Zack Greinke – SP – Diamondbacks – vs. San Diego Padres – DraftKings – $8,800
|7.69||1.23||0.301||4.31||3.84||18-for-95, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 20 Ks|
Analysis: Greinke has obviously lost a step with his pitching this season. With a K/9 rate under an 8, it’s apparent Greinke isn’t getting the number of swings and misses he’s used to. Chase Field has been damning to his game at times, but he’s been much better on the road this season and toes the rubber at PETCO tonight. The Padres are one of the worst teams against RH pitching and strikeouts come in bunches for them. Greinke’s price tag has dropped severely for tonight and I think this is when you should hope onto the wagon!