What a sports weekend we are coming off of!
The Cavs come back from a 3-1 deficit to upend the defending champion Warriors, Dustin Johnson, amid controversy, erases his 2015 U.S. Open misfortune by winning the 2016 version, and Dean Ambrose cashes in the Money in the Bank contract he won on the same night to defeat Seth Rollins who defeated Roman….ok, you don’t care about wrestling.
It was a great Father’s Day for sports and for myself, celebrating my first one ever, so all-in-all, a solid weekend with family and with sports watching duties.
BvP is back in the top 3 of the Expert rankings! How about that? Still have a long way to go to catch Brad and his “On the Hill” picks, but finishing in the top 3 is a goal of mine. It validates my argument that BvP data can be successful for DFS.
Anyhow, I just want to say that watching Clayton Kershaw pitch is like watching Bob Ross paint. It’s masterful and fluid. Coupled with Vin Scully calling the Dodgers’ home games makes watching baseball so smooth.
I have a couple of housekeeping things to go over for this week. We will not have a full week of BvP picks, so I will not do lineups at the end this week, but will get back to things the following Tuesday. Also, don’t forget to check out dailybaseballdata.com for all Major League Baseball BvP stats.
Time to pick!
Neil Walker – 2B – Mets – vs. Ian Kennedy
BvP: 9-for-21, 1 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI
Analysis: Regression is finally starting to catch up to ol’ Kennedy. He’s been popped for 16 ER in his past 3 outings. Now he gets the Mets, who might be down on their luck of late, but still provide some pop. I will be targeting Walker out of the Mets’ bunch. Kennedy is a flyball pitcher that is averaging nearly 2 HR/9 innings and 34.5% hard contact to lefties this season. He’s still got an extremely low BABIP of .259 and his road ERA of 5.44 only furthers the cause to target Walker’s 3 career HRs off Kennedy, but probably a lot more Mets’ bats tonight.
Jayson Werth – OF – Nationals – vs. Scott Kazmir
BvP: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: If I had a “Darkhorse” pick every time I take the hill a la our very own Brad Richter, Werth would be it tonight. He’s on a roll right now with 15 hits in his last 11 games, including a knock against Kershaw last night, something not many Nats were able to accomplish. Now he and Washington get Kazmir who has been erratic all season long. The Nationals are one of the top offenses against lefties and Kaz is giving up 1.58 HR/9 to RH bats. Kaz also is a notable fly-ball pitcher that benefits from playing in Dodger Stadium, but Werth has been hitting in the 2-hole for the Nats for some time and still has a lot of pop in that bat.
Xander Bogaerts – SS – Red Sox – vs. Chris Sale
BvP: 5-for-10, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: I think I have probably rostered Chris Sale in my DFS lineups only a couple of times this year and tonight will be no different. He’s been a beast this season despite pitching more to contact. He’s due for some regression and now runs into a potent Red Sox lineup in Fenway, where the Sox score a ton of runs. Boston burned a lot of people yesterday, so I like the spot they are in tonight. The Red Sox bats are still pricey despite the matchup, but maybe there is something to that folks! The Green Monster is a hit machine for RH bats and Bogey has been able to get to Sale early on in his career. I like Betts today too, but Bogaerts has the slightly better track record.
Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Marlins and Justin Bour – 1B – vs. Bud Norris
BvP: 2-for-5, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Bud me once, shame on me, Bud me twice, HELL NO! Tonight will not be a night to be burned by targeting against Bud Norris. He’s a well-known home/road splits guy. There’s something about him pitching in front of the home crowd that brings out his inner Nolan Ryan. But on the road, he is able to channel his inner Chan Ho Park (the Ranger years). The unChuck Norris sports a fabulous 5.60 road ERA and is getting a Marlins team that is starting to heat up, thanks to one Giancarlo Stanton. The bat is coming alive for the Marlins’ slugger, who belted his first home run since the dinosaurs went extinct. Norris’ numbers suggest he’s tough on RH bats, but I don’t expect him to be in this game long anyway and Giancarlo is finally swinging the bat well. I’ll take him and the streaky lefty power bat of Justin Bour, who has 10 hits in his past 8 games including a few multi-hit efforts. Norris generously serves up melons on a silver platter to lefties with a .390 wOBA, a 44.6% hard contact rate and 1.6 HR/9. The Marlins are very stackable tonight.
Johnny Cueto – OF – Giants – vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
PvB: 46-for-178, 10 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 6 BB, 12 Ks
Analysis: In typical fashion, Madison Bumgarner was the pitcher I was most afraid of last night and he went right out and put up 30+ DraftKings points. So in typical fashion, I will jump on the Pirates’ slump bandwagon with Mr. Cueto. Outside of some power stats from Andrew McCutchen, Cueto has been relatively untouchable by the remaining guys on the Bucs’ roster. PNC is a big park and Cueto has been solid in keeping the ball down and out of the air. He rarely gives up homeruns and has certainly improved as a pitcher this year. HIs peripherals do suggest some regression looms, but Cueto is in a great spot against a waning offense. The only worry here is the ability to rack up the strikeouts, however Cueto can pitch deep into games and is a solid cash and GPP option tonight.