Saw a ridiculous stat last night about Kris Bryant’s offensive performance versus the Reds.
He’s the first player since 1913 to hit 3 home runs and 2 doubles in one game. That’s 16 total bases and he had something like 60+ DraftKings fantasy points.
Bryant scored nearly 8 times the points than that of Jake Arrieta who was an absolute bust. In the words of former Ranger great Ron Washington, “that’s the way baseball go.”
Today we have a full slate of games, a game at Coors and not a lot of aces on the hill. We have a ton of cannon fodder on the bump as well, including my “favorite” pitcher in the world, Scott Feldman.
I’ve dug a hole as deep as an asteroid crater trying to find picks tonight, and by that statement, I mean, I checked out dailybaseballdata.com.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Adrian Gonzalez – 1B – Dodgers – vs. Chase Anderson
BvP: 6-for-13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 5 BB
Analysis: A-Gon has been gone from the stat sheets pretty much all season, but I absolutely love this pick despite his struggles. The main reason is because he will have had a couple of days off for rest, physically and mentally. I always love to target struggling hitters who come back after a day off. There’s something about that strategy that works (and you can try that with DFS too!). Chase Anderson has been a decent pitcher this season, but I think he’s been way too good against lefties and awful against RH bats. He has allowed a .184 average against lefties this season and I think that total comes up a lot before the end of the season. Gonzalez should be slotted back into the middle of the lineup in an underrated hitter’s park. Box 1 checked.
Nelson Cruz – OF – Mariners – vs. Jon Niese
BvP: 1-for-3, 1 2B
Analysis: The best lefty masher in the game. Nothing to see here as far as samples are concerned, but Cruz gets to face soft-tossing lefty Jon Niese, who survives by making batters ground out. Cruz is matchup proof against lefties and pretty much any ballpark. I can see his ownership low with it being a late game and a stiff price tag on DraftKings, but he has cash game and GPP floors and ceilings with his southpaw matchup, especially versus Niese’s .386 wOBA, .303 batting average against and 2.19 HR/9 in 2016.
Oswaldo Arcia – OF – Rays – vs. Rick Porcello
BvP: 2-for-5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: This is an honest statement: I’ve always thought Oswaldo Arcia would be a solid player if given regular PT. He’s going to get that for now as the Rays are dealing with injuries. Arcia has produced in a big way the past two days and he gets a decent matchup against Porcello, who has been susceptible to allowing lefty bats gets the best of him. Porcello might be a solid SP2 option on two-pitcher sites, but I have my eye on Arcia and his cheap price tag in tournaments.
Giancarlo Stanton – OF and Martin Prado – 3B – Marlins – vs. Mike Pelfrey
Stanton BvP: 9-for-19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 1 SB
Prado BvP: 10-for-22, 6 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBi, 3 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: Cannon fodder of the slate goes to Mike Pelfrey. Stanton has finally turned things around of late and he’s got a great history with Pelfrey already. The days of Stanton’s cheap price tag is likely over (now $4,800 on DK), but he’s still worthy of consideration against Pelfrey’s .359 wOBA vs. RH bats. Prado is a guy that sometimes flies under the radar. He’s not flashy and doesn’t provide a lot of power, but he rarely strikes out and always gets on base. Luckily, he’s had a lot of success against Pelfrey (but really who hasn’t?). I expect a shift in his spot in the lineup should Ozuna not be able to go, so this could be another boost to Prado’s fantasy value tonight, which is strictly as a GPP play on DK with his elevated price tag. Stanton is viable in all formats.
Zack Greinke – SP – Diamondbacks – vs. Philadelphia Phillies
PvB: 13-for-92, 3 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 4 BB, 30 Ks
Analysis: I think Greinke has the best value of the aces on the board tonight. Yes, Chase Field can make a pitcher’s life miserable/, but he has one of the best matchups available in the Phillies, who ranked near the bottom in almost every offensive category. Greinke has struggled at home at times, but he’s up against a team that he just struck out 6 in 8 innings a couple of starts ago. Greinke should have no trouble pitching deep into this one and getting the win.
Lastly, we get back to making lineups using BvP data. Here’s tonight’s scheduled lineup.
Analysis: I am rolling with rookie Giolito against the struggling Mets. I will try to ride the coattails of Bryant’s 3 HR performance against lefty John Lamb and hope to get some revenge with Tulo vs. his old team. Good luck!
