Welcome back to the On the Hill article for the 2017 MLB season. It is great to have baseball back and I am ready to provide some DFS advice at least five times per week this season. I will have a little different format this year as I shift to a “3 Up” and “3 Down” concept where I recommend three pitchers to use with one Ace, Value, and Darkhorse option each. Then I will also give three pitchers to target with some hitter stacks including 2-4 hitters from those teams to use in your stack.
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My recommendations will focus on the nine-game “day” slate. So let’s get to it for the real Opening Day of the season. Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down……
3 Up
Ace
Clayton Kershaw (FD-$12,600 / DK-$12,800)
Of course, the Opening Day slate is heavy on ace pitching options led by none other than Mr. Kershaw. I often like to consider fading the chalk ace when there are so many aces on the slate but Kershaw is in too good of a spot pitching at home as a huge favorite against the Padres who had the second highest K-rate (25.3%) against lefties last season. It’s not worth getting too cute to start the season, so plug in Kershaw just like everyone else and differentiate yourself with your hitters.
Value
Stephen Strasburg (FD-$9,700 / DK-$9,900)
Strasburg comes in with the four highest salary which makes him somewhat of a value option. He is the second biggest favorite on the slate pitching for a team with high expectation this season. He will face the Marlins who were in the bottom seven in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against righties last season with basically the same team taking the field this year.
Darkhorse
Jon Gray (FD-$8,200 / DK-$7,800)
Gray showed signs of a breakout last season with a 9.91 K/9 and 3.61 xFIP while somehow pitching better at home in Coors Field than on the road. He will be on the road to start his 2017 season in a favorable matchup against the Brewers who stuck out at the highest rate against righties last season (25.8%). With major strikeout upside and with the Rockies even money according to Vegas, Gray makes for a solid option to save some salary as a second pitcher on two-pitcher sites or as a GPP option.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Nationals vs. Edinson Volquez
Volquez allows a lot of contact with just a 16.3% K-rate and 1.09 HR/9 last season. He gives up production to both righties (.341 wOBA) and lefties (.346 wOBA). Plus the winds are blowing out to left field at about 13 mph.
Bryce Harper (FD-$4,500 / DK-$5,100) – Harper has a career .395 wOBA versus righties at home
Trea Turner (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,900) – Turner has a .252 ISO at home against righties so far in his brief career.
Daniel Murphy (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,500) – Murphy had a .365 average at home against righties last season.
Reds vs. Jeremy Hellickson
The Reds/Phillies game has the highest Vegas total on the slate (9 runs) with the Reds as a small favorite. Hellickson has a career 1.19 HR/9 and will be pitching in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Beware of the weather with a chance of rain and winds blowing in from right field.
Joey Votto (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,700) – Votto had a .429 wOBA versus righties last season and .419 wOBA versus righties in his career.
Adam Duvall (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,000) – Duvall had a .260 ISO and 26 homers versus righties last season
Jose Peraza (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,700) – Will hit near the top of the lineup and his speed should translate in steals and runs with a .343 OBP versus righties so far in his brief career.
Contrarian Stack
Dodgers vs Jhoulys Chacin
Dodger hitters will fly under the radar with a six-run Vegas total thanks to Kershaw on the hill. Chacin allows a lot of hard contact (30.4%) in his career and he pitched poorly on the road last season with a .361 wOBA allowed.
Justin Turner (FD-$3,500 / DK-$3,500) – Turner has huge reverse splits with a .258 ISO and .385 wOBA against righties last season.
Joc Pederson (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,600) – Pederson is much better against righties and at home where he has a .287 ISO and .360 wOBA in his career.
Yasmani Grandal (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,400) – Grandal is another at home versus righties guy who had a .376 ISO and .417 wOBA with that combination last season.
Andrew Toles (FD-$2,000 / DK-$2,900) – Toles can be included in the stack if he hits at the top of the lineup
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