I’m back after not writing an article on Friday while I was on vacation in Boston. I hope you were able to survive the Friday slate without my advice. Monday features a nice nine-game slate of MLB action to kick off the week. Seems like all of the pitching options tonight have something working against them whether it is the matchup itself or past history against their opponent so tread lightly when considering which arms to roster. The hitting side, on the other hand, has a lot of ways to go including a game at Coors Field where I only like one of the teams today.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Zack Greinke (FD-$10,000 / DK-$9,400)
Greinke is off to a solid start this season after a disastrous start to his initial season with the Diamondbacks last year. Greinke is the type of pitcher that seems to take a little bit of time to settle into his new surroundings and may be taking a leap back to being a near ace pitcher this season. He will face a Padres’ team that has struggled against righties over the last year plus including a 23.9% strikeout rate and a bottom seven wOBA and wRC+ so far this season. Greinke has also pitched well against the Padres hitters over the last two season allowing just a .278 wOBA in 97 plate appearances. Worth consideration in both Cash and GPP.
Value
Jason Vargas (FD-$8,500 / DK-$8,000)
Vargas has been sensational so far this season with a 0.44 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate through his first three starts. He will face a White Sox team that is ice cold right now with a 28.2% strikeout rate and league-worst wOBA (.236) and wRC+ (49) over the last seven days. The White Sox have done okay against lefties in a very small sample this season but with the way Vargas is pitching and the White Sox are hitting, Vargas is a solid option in both Cash and GPP lineups.
Darkhorse
Amir Garrett (FD-$7,700 / DK-$6,700)
Garrett could be very popular on Monday coming off a 12-strikeout performance against the Orioles. His price is still low and he will face a Brewers’ team that has a league-worst 30.2% strikeout rate against lefties. While that is all good, the Brewers have also hit lefties very well so far this season with a massive .256 ISO, .383 wOBA and 140 wRC+. Selecting Garrett for your lineup could be boom or bust so I’d suggest limiting exposure to him to just GPP tournaments and maybe sneaking in a Brewers stack even though they aren’t one of my three recommended stacks below.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rockies vs. Jacob Turner
The Rockies hitters will be very popular tonight playing in Coors Field against Jacob Turner making his first start of the season for the Nationals. Right-hander Turner has been a reverse-splits pitcher over his career allowing a .371 wOBA and 1.48 HR/9 to righties while holding lefties to a .321 wOBA and 0.64 HR/9. Focus on the Rockies’ righties which might be lower owned than they should be.
Nolan Arenado (FD-$4,900 / DK-$5,600) – Arenado hits righties well with a career .249 ISO and .370 wOBA at home.
Mark Reynolds (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,600) – Reynolds has already hit three homers off righties this season and had a .217 ISO at home against righties last year.
DJ LeMahieu (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,800) – LeMahieu is often overlooked in the Rockies lineup but batting second but he has a massive .455 wOBA at home versus righties last season.
Trevor Story (FD-$4,000 / DK-$5,400) – Story has two homers in his last three games a had a .338 ISO and .415 wOBA at home against righties last season.
Cubs vs. Chad Kuhl
You might have expected the Nationals in this spot but with them facing lefty Tyler Anderson, who I think is a pretty good pitcher, I’m going to go away from Coors Field to the Cubs bats. Kuhl’s ERA (2.60) looks solid but he holds a 5.18 xFIP and .265 BABIP showing that his early surface numbers might be misleading. Kuhl has allowed a .373 wOBA to lefties in his career.
Anthony Rizzo (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,300) – Rizzo has homered in three straight games and has three extra-base hits in seven career at-bats against Kuhl.
Kris Bryant (FD-$4,200 / DK-$5,000) – Bryant is riding a five-game hitting streak and has a .218 ISO and .371 wOBA against righties in his career.
Kyle Schwarber (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,500) – Schwarber is also in consideration when facing a righty with a career .249 ISO and .383 wOBA.
Ben Zobrist (FD-$2,800 / DK-$4,300) – Zobrist seems to do his best work on the road over the last season-plus including a .219 ISO and .390 wOBA outside of the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.
Contrarian Stack
Dodgers vs. Matt Cain
Not sure if a Dodgers stack against Cain should be considered “contrarian” but with a game at Coors Field just about other game is somewhat contrarian. Cain has had an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the last two seasons and despite a 3.31 ERA in his first three starts this year his 5.38 xFIP falls more in line with previous seasons. He has also been hammered by lefties over the last few seasons.
Corey Seager (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,200) – Seager has two multi-hit games in his last two starts including a double and homer while posting a .410 wOBA against righties in his career.
Yasmani Grandal (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,200) – Grandal went deep yesterday and has a .205 ISO in his career against righties.
Justin Turner (FD-$3,700 / DK-$3,400) – Turner hasn’t homered yet this season but hits righties better than lefties with a .385 wOBA last season.
Andrew Toles (FD-$2,200 / DK-$2,900) – Toles should move back into the leadoff spot if Joc Pederson is out which gives the young outfielder with .361 wOBA against righties in his brief career a lot of value with a cheap salary in a favorable matchup.
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