Welcome back to another week of the Value Index. It’s the last week of April and May is upon us.
April showers bring May flowers? That’s the saying right?
Perhaps April has been tough on you for baseball DFS, but perhaps the process, the focus, the grind all leads you to a bouquet of cash!
I am going to try my best to help you get there each and every day. So, if you are reading this, feel free to strike up a conversation with me in the comments below, or on Twitter. I have a few questions for you, and if you want to share them with me, you know how to get in touch.
What do you play most, cash games or tournaments?
How do you use the Value Index in your daily research?
Any extras you would like to see in the picks or changes to the picks/process?
Lastly, any questions you have, fire away!
Tonight we have a solid 9-game slate to tackle, but with very few pitchers you can feel comfortable rostering. We have a game at Coors, a game at Chase Field, a game at Globe Life Park and one at Miller Park. Lots of park factors to consider and with the Rockies hosting the Nationals, you can guess where the attention might go for DFS purposes.
Remember, today is a premium day, so you will only get a couple of free picks, but the rest is up to you! Take advantage of our free 7-day trial if you haven’t already.
Anyway, let’s get to the picks and good luck!
Analysis: Yes, I think you might just see Brett Anderson as chalk tonight. But there aren’t a lot of cheap options out there that you can really hang your hat on. Sure, Anderson got roughed up by the Brewers in his last outing, but who hasn’t been taking it on the chin from the Brew Crew lately? Anderson is an extreme ground ball pitcher that keeps the ball down and doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact to batters. He checks all the boxes tonight – rebound game, in a big pitcher’s park, against a weak offense that strikes out 23% of the time to southpaws. Anderson should see a bunch of RH bats in this lineup, but it’s an offense that hasn’t shown a lot of power and is without one of its best players. Anderson probably won’t rack up a ton of Ks here, but hopefully we get 6 innings of work with limited damage.
Analysis: If you choose to subscribe or sign up for the 7-day free trial to finish today’s write up, you will likely see some popular faces for tonight’s slate (but are any of them Coors’ bats?)/ So as a freebie, I want you to consider David Peralta. I don’t know how my love for Peralta originated, but he’s a guy that has always been there for me in DFS. Maybe it’s the ballpark, or his ability to hit RH bats well, maybe it’s his placement in the batting order, or maybe it’s all of it, but Peralta is a steady hand that seemingly goes under utilized and that will likely happen tonight, too. His price almost always stays below $4K on DraftKings, but today he is dead even in this price range. In his last six games, Peralta has 14 hits and all of those games except for one he has multi-hit efforts, including two 4-hits games. The ballpark is a great boost and gets a great matchup against Jhoulys Chacin who has allowed a .344 wOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to lefties since 2016. Peralta isn’t the last Diamondback on my list tonight, maybe you can guess you the other is?
Analysis: I am a broken record here.There are guys against certain handedness that I will always play. On Friday, it was Nelson Cruz vs. a lefty, Giancarlo Stanton is another guy I play against lefties, Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, and Buster Posey is on that short list as well. He was up against a lefty Sunday in Coors and didn’t do much, but I don’t care about the venue for Posey in this matchup. I won a lot of money once when Posey belted a 3-run home run at home against a lefty. I am playing Posey at under $4K and I am not looking at anyone else at catcher tonight. If he goose eggs, so be it. Posey’s power against lefties sits at a .189 against southpaws since 2016. His opponent tonight is Hyun-Jin Ryu, the slate’s most expensive pitcher on DraftKings. In three starts this season, Ryu has allowed 10 ER and 6 HRs. Since 2015, Ryu has allowed a .459 wOBA, a 4.05 HR/9 rate and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed bats. Those numbers are likely unsustainable for Ryu, but let’s hope his struggles continue tonight.
Analysis: Jake Lamb has become one of my favorite DFS plays this season (along with the gentleman below). Pretty much everything I said about David Peralta applies to Lamb, except he has even more power against RH pitching and bats cleanup for the D-Backs, a top-5 offense against RH pitching this season. Lock and load.
Analysis: Lastly, Corey Seager makes the Index once again, imagine that? He’s been on here how many times? Anyway, Seager, who sports a .404 wOBA, a .225 ISO and a 40% hard contact rate against RH pitching, gets a mouthwatering matchup against the ghost of Matt Cain, who has been roughed up by both sides of the plate in recent years. Since 2015, Cain has allowed a .396 wOBA and a 1.43 HR/09 rate to lefty bats. Now, this is a tough ballpark to hit, but again, I don’t care. Seager is cheap, reliable and allows you to be flexible with your salary cap at such a cheap price.