All set for a fresh week of MLB pitcher recommendations. Tonight we start off with a limited seven-game slate which does still have a couple of aces to decide between and a very cheap pitcher that is worth consideration. Glad to see that my pitcher recommendation have done well so far this season, currently good enough for second place in our Overall Standings.
Ace
Jose Fernandez (FD-$10,700 / DK-$11,300)
I expect most of the public to be on Noah Syndergaard tonight pitching against the Phillies but I think he has more downside potential tonight then Fernandez does. Fernandez is pitching at home in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark where he has a career 1.61 ERA and with a 30.6% K-rate. The Phillies have a better offense then they get credit for and are only slightly worse in ISO and wOBA versus righties than the Nationals so far this season. So while I expect the public to be loading up on Syndergaard tonight, I will be taking Fernandez in Cash and some GPP lineups.
Value
Jerad Eickhoff (FD-$7,100 / DK-$8,000)
Eickhoff has pitched very well to start the season with a 24.5% K-rate and a 1.50 ERA. His xFIP of 3.37 leads you to believe that some regression will come but I don’t expect it to occur tonight against a Mets team that has the 9th worst wOBA and 11th worst ISO against righties so far this season. Eickhoff should probably be limited to a GPP option as a contrarian fade to Syndergaard.
Jake Peavy (FD-$6,400 / DK-$7,300)
Peavy is nothing special anymore. He doesn’t strike out batters like he use to and has gotten off to a slow start this season with a 10.00 ERA through his first two starts (one of which came at Coors Field). However, Peavy does have some things in his favor tonight against the Diamondbacks. He is pitching in a ballpark that suppresses home runs which will limit his downside. He is pitching at home which has always been a plus for Peavy who has an ERA of almost a full run lower at home versus the road during his career. Finally, the opposing pitcher is Archie Bradley who has only made eight big league starts so the Giants should be in a good position to earn Peavy a win tonight. I prefer Peavy in Cash games due to his limited upside, especially on two-pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
Dan Straily (FD-$5,300 / DK-$4,000)
Going to the bottom of the barrel for my Darkhorse pick tonight as Straily is dirt cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Due to his very small price, I do expect him to be fairly highly owned especially in GPPs tonight with a short slate of games. Straily has shown some skills in his short big league career (45 starts) and could be ready to take the next step in his development this season. Over his career, he has a solid 19.5% K-rate and has limited opponents to a .233 batting average. Tonight he will be pitching at home as a small favorite against a Rockies team that will be without their leadoff man Charlie Blackmon. My biggest concern with Straily is that he does not pitch deep enough into the game to pile up enough strike outs or get the win. I prefer Straily as a GPP play but you might also be able to play him as your second pitcher in Cash games on DraftKings due to is extremely cheap price.
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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