Congrats to DailyOverlay founder, Greg Peters (vengven) for winning the Mega Payoff Pitch on DraftKings Wednesday night using the two cheap pitching recommendations I gave in my On the Hill article (Scott Kazmir and Steven Wright). Always nice to hear when your recommendations help others succeed. Tonight we’ll get back at it with another large 14-game slate of MLB action on a Friday night.
Ace
Corey Kluber (FD-$11,000 / DK-$12,500)
Kluber leads the way tonight as my Ace recommendation. He is the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings but only the second highest on FanDuel. After a few shaky starts to begin the season, Kluber put up an eight inning, one run and 10 strikeout performance in his last start at Detroit. Tonight he gets to face a Phillies team that is in the bottom 11 in K%, ISO and wOBA against righties this season and will get to face a pitcher hitting in the nine spot playing in the NL park. Felix Hernandez is tempting on DraftKings at just $10,100 but I don’t like the matchup against the Royals.
Value
Aaron Sanchez (FD-$7,100 / DK-$7,100)
Sanchez has pitched well to the start the season with a 3.33 ERA and 8.5 K/9 through his first four starts. He could be locked up in a pitcher’s duel tonight against the Rays and Drew Smyly. While Smyly has pitched great and has strikeout upside he is also facing a more potent offense in the Blue Jays. So I will take the cheaper Sanchez against a Rays’ offense that has the highest K-rate (28.1%) against righties this season and the sixth worst wOBA at .289.
Mike Fiers (FD-$7,800 / DK-$7,800)
Here is another matchup where I am going to “zag” when others “zig”. Fiers is facing the Athletics and their young prospect, Sean Manaea, making his first big league start. I expect Manaea to be a popular choice tonight with his strikeout upside against the Astros but I have a gut feeling that Fiers is going to steal the show and have a very strong game in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against an A’s team that has the seventh worst wOBA (.293) against righties this season. I wouldn’t play Fiers in Cash games but he could be a good contrarian GPP play tonight.
Darkhorse
Adam Conley (FD-$6,400 / DK-$6,400)
My Darkhorse recommendation tonight of Conley is all about the Ks. Conley has shown strikeout upside this season with two of his four starts resulting in eight and nine strikeouts respectively. Tonight Conley pitches against the Brewers who have the second worst K-rate in the league against lefties at 26.7%. As long as Conley can avoid the walks, as the Brewers also lead the league in walk rate (16.0%) against lefties, and pitch into the sixth or seven inning, he has the upside to break into double-digit strikeouts tonight. I like Conley has a great high upside GPP option tonight on all sites.
On the Hill – Results
Wednesday
| Date | Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| 27-Apr | Value | Gio Gonzalez | 9600 | 17.45 | B |
| 27-Apr | Value | Scott Kazmir | 6700 | 16.10 | B |
| 27-Apr | Dark | Steven Wright | 6600 | 29.55 | A+ |
- Ace – Jake Arrieta and the Cubs were rained out on Wednesday
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | $11,343 | 22.04 | 4.29 |
| Value | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 32 | $8,431 | 13.99 | 2.50 |
| Dark | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | $6,631 | 16.14 | 4.38 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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