My belief is that the best fantasy sports players are the ones that know how to combine data analytics research with their intuition and general sports knowledge. Tonight’s pitcher recommendations is an example of that with my Darkhorse pick of Chris Tillman tonight. There are just some days where you see a matchup and you just get that feeling of how a game or matchup will play out even if all the numbers don’t say it will. I like to call it my “Gut Call” and if you followed my Offensive Tendencies articles during the NFL season you saw that my “gut” was right quite often. So tonight’s “Gut Call” if you will is Chris Tillman.
Ace
Francisco Liriano (FD-$9,900 / DK-$10,300)
There are two high-priced aces on the night slate today and I prefer Liriano over the higher priced Chris Archer tonight. Both have similar high strikeout potential but Liriano is in a better position to allow fewer runs with the 2nd lowest Vegas implied runs against and has a better chance for a win with the Pirates as the 2nd highest favorite on the night. Be sure to watch the weather leading up to game time as there is rain in the forecast in Cincy.
Value
Taijuan Walker (FD-$7,600 / DK-$9,300)
Walker and the Mariners are the biggest favorites of the night at home against the Athletics. Walker showed some flashes of dominance last season and was a better pitcher at home including a much higher K-rate of 26.4% in home games. The price is especially appealing on FanDuel for both Cash and GPP games.
Matt Shoemaker (FD-$7,700 / DK-$6,200)
My endorsement of Shoemaker tonight is only on DraftKings where he is the 4th cheapest pitcher of the night. Shoemaker pitches better at home and had reverse splits last season pitching better against lefties (.316 wOBA) than righties (.337 wOBA) and will face Rangers team tonight that has numerous lefties in their lineup.
Darkhorse
Chris Tillman (FD-$7,000 / DK-$6,800)
It is usually not a good choice to recommend a pitcher going up against and ace like Chris Archer but my gut and some numbers tell me that Tillman is in a good spot to surprise tonight. First of all, Vegas only has the Rays as a small favorite with the game carrying one of the lowest totals on the night at 7.5 runs. Also, the Rays finished in the bottom third of the league in K%, wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers last season. Tillman is worth a roll of the dice tonight in GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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