Time to kick off another week of “On the Hill” pitching recommendations starting with a nine-game Monday night slate. It is an interesting night for pitchers with two of the top pitchers in baseball, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg, squaring off in L.A. There are also numerous games with high temperatures and winds blowing out that make it a tricky slate to dissect but I’ll give a go.
Ace
Madison Bumgarner (FD-$12,000 / DK-$12,800)
I am going to pivot away from the pitchers’ duel in L.A. tonight and shift my attention to Pittsburgh where the red-hot Bumgarner will pitch against the struggling Pirates’ offense. Bumgarner has been pitching lights out this season allowing two runs of less in each of his last 11 starts with a 1.38 ERA and 9.92 K/9 during that stretch. Tonight he will face a Pirates offense that over the last 14 days has ranked in the bottom two in the league in K% (26.5), ISO (.117), wOBA (.277) and wRC+ (74). Bumgarner is worth rostering in both Cash and GPP lineups.
Value
John Lackey (FD-$9,600 / DK-$11,800)
Lackey doesn’t represent a huge value over the top aces but if you are looking to get away from the “Big 3” aces of the night he is the best option in the next pricing tier. Lackey has pitched well against his former team, the Cardinals, in his two starts this season throwing 14 innings while allowing just three runs and recording 20 strikeouts. Both of those matchups were in St. Louis but tonight’s game will be in Chicago where Lackey holds a sparkling 1.66 ERA in six starts. Lackey is a decent Cash game option if you want some salary relief and a good GPP flier to pivot away from the top aces.
Drew Smyly (FD-$9,000 / DK-$6,700)
Smyly has had his ups-and-downs this season from allowing five or more runs four times to recording double-digit strikeouts three times. I think we get the “good” Smyly tonight in a favorable matchup against the Indians who rank 5th worst in ISO (.135) against lefties this season which should help Smyly who has been hurt by the long ball this season. Meanwhile, Smyly has his usual strikeout upside with a 27.7% strikeout rate this season. Smyly is worth GPP consideration on both sites and is a potential Cash game option as a #2 starter on DraftKings due to his low salary and strikeout upside.
Darkhorse
Jorge De La Rosa (FD-$5,200 / DK-$5,900)
De La Rosa will pitch his first game of the season in a pitcher-friendly park on Monday in Miami. Besides pitching all his home games at Coors Field, De La Rosa has pitched in Arizona, Cincinnati and Boston so far this season. De La Rosa has pitched well recently with nine consecutive shutout innings and six strikeouts over his last two appearances. He will be opposed by the Marlins’ Paul Clemens who holds a career 5.51 ERA over 98 innings and will be making his first start since the 2013 season with the Astros giving De La Rosa a decent chance for a win. De La Rosa is a good, cheap GPP option and potential Cash game option on two-pitcher sites.
On the Hill – Results
Friday
| Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| Value | Lance McCullers | 8900 | 16.40 | C |
| Value | Joe Ross | 9400 | 18.70 | C |
| Value | Masahiro Tanaka | 8300 | 25.80 | A+ |
| Dark | Robbie Ray | 8400 | 22.70 | A |
| Dark | Adam Conley | 6200 | 17.75 | A |
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 19 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 41 | $11,685 | 25.15 | 5.93 |
| Value | 17 | 10 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 85 | $8,466 | 16.54 | 3.53 |
| Dark | 18 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 46 | $6,667 | 17.53 | 5.13 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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